Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country accounted for 56% of South Africa's maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes that year.

In the 2025-26 marketing year, Zimbabwe's maize demand is expected to be smaller but remain substantial. The previous season presented unique challenges, primarily the mid-summer drought. This led to a 60% decline in Zimbabwe's maize production, leaving the country with only 635,000 tonnes of harvest. This was far below the 2,0 million tonnes Zimbabwe required for its domestic annual consumption. Thus, imports played a crucial role in meeting domestic needs.

But the current season has brought some recovery. Zimbabwe's 2024-25 maize production is forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season. This recovery is primarily driven by improved weather conditions and an increase in the area that farmers managed to plant for maize. Still, Zimbabwe's potential maize harvest of 1.3 million tonnes will not be sufficient to meet the country's domestic needs of 2.0 million tonnes, leaving it to import the balance.

In the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe's maize imports. However, in the 2025-26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia becoming an exporter again. Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the Southern Africa region, has seen a recovery in its 2024-25 maize production, now estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1.5 million tonnes in the previous season, according to Zambia's government data. Similarly to Zimbabwe, and South Africa, this increase in the harvest is due to favourable weather conditions and decent area plantings. The harvest is underway in the country. This means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize, as its domestic maize consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes.

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Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website