On episode 91, Julia La Roche is joined by Peter Atwater, an adjunct professor of economics at William & Mary, and author of "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity". Atwater explains how confidence is the real "invisible hand" in our economy, markets, and everyday lives. He also shares his concern about the divergent economy, where billionaire confidence is soaring while a large population feels left behind, not only in the US but also in other countries. Atwater is the first who shared the notion of a K-shaped recovery in the economy.

Links: 

The Confidence Map: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Peter_Atwater

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-atwater-08467034/

Peter’s website: https://peteratwater.com/

0:00 Intro / Background

2:48 Psychology of investor decision-making and economic decision-making

3:35 Behavioral economists typically focus on what we do wrong

4:30 The role of confidence 

6:40 Confidence Quadrant framework 

10:00 Application of the Confidence Quadrant on macro/micro level 

13:00 Executives discussing AI 

14:47 Investors are in the “comfort zone” on the Confidence Quadrant 

15:35 The K-shaped recovery 

17:48 If markets were to price in Main Street sentiment they would considerably lower 

18:30 Two different sets of moods and preferences 

20:30 Assessment of the current state of America today 

24:00 Evaluating consumer confidence and the 2016 election 

28:00 Gen Z’s confidence? 

31:00 Millennials’ sentiment 

33:00 Real life moves us around 

35:00 Music and the mood 

38:00 Taylor Swift phenomenon 

39:30 Peak confidence? 

40:30 Mania in the Magnificent Seven 

41:15 Passive investing puts investors in the “passenger seat” 

44:00 Elon Musk is the “Kevin Bacon” of every popular investment theme

47:20 Media is the “mirror of mood” 

50:30 Why confidence is the real “invisible hands” 

53:00 Best indicator of an upcoming recession 

55:00 Bidenomics is another sentiment indicator