The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

#110: The Baby Boomer impact on real estate - Why rightsizing needs policy intervention to free up supply


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https://propertyplanning.com.au/propertyplannerbuyerprofessor/ In this week's episode, Dave, Cate and Pete take you through: Market insights 1. Latest unemployment figures exceeds expectations In the latest figures released by the ABS, the unemployment rate has come down to 4.9% in June from 5.1%. The last time we saw unemployment this low was in June 2011. On the other hand, underemployment has increased to 7.9% in June (from 7.4% in May). It's probable this was caused by the extended lockdown at this time in Vic. Notably, Vic has the lowest unemployment rate of all the states and territories, with unemployment at 4.40%. 2. Time to buy a dwelling index shows slight improvement The 'Time to buy a dwelling' index produced by the Westpac Melbourne Institute has shown an increase of 0.8 points to 96.9 from June to July. Although an improvement, it is still in negative territory, with the index down substantially from its peak in November 2020 of 132 points. The consistently weaker trends likely reflect concerns about the impact of sharp price increases on affordability, especially amongst prospective first home buyers and owner occupiers. 3. Lowest vacancy rates nationally since May 2011 National vacancy rates recorded by SQM research show the economy continues to move in a very positive direction. The vacancy rate fell from 1.8% in May to 1.7% in June, which is the lowest vacancy rate since May 2011. The Sydney and Melbourne CBD apartment market also shows positive steps to recovery, with Sydney falling 0.5 to 6.3% and Melbourne falling 0.3 to 5.8%. It is fair to mention that despite the oversupply of CBD apartments in our two capital cities, the overall vacancy rate is extremely tight and is illustrating a growing concern for the plight of renters. 4. NSW relief packages for residential landlords In an effort to assist NSW residential landlords, a grant of $1,500 or land tax reductions are available for landlords who come to an agreement with their tenants to decrease rent, to assist with reduced incomes due to Covid. The trio discuss the merits of this policy, which is able to offset some of the loss that generous landlords are shouldering. Rightsizing 1. Who are the baby boomers? The baby boomer generation were born between 1946 and 1964 and would be currently be aged between the ages of 57 to 75 years. Baby boomers make up 25% of the population, but own more than half of Australia's national wealth (53%). Given the baby boomer generation have the highest home ownership rate of all cohorts (above 80%), a lot of their wealth would be tied to property. Their economic footprint is twice as large as their demographic footprint, however, due to compound growth over time, it makes perfect sense that the older cohort should have proportionately more wealth than younger ones. 2. Effects on Australian residential property Unlocking the baby boomer's wealth in property (which could be around two trillion dollars), could be critical to the future of home ownership rates, and potentially also to the creation of seniors' accommodation, and to aged care policy. As our population is aging, there will be added costs associated with supporting the older generations, plus more demand for suitable property for our older generations (including aged care). Lower home ownership rates have been recorded in younger generations, no doubt due to other social reasons, including people choosing to get married and start a family later in life. A study by the productivity commission concluded that 60 per cent of...
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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)By Cate Bakos, David Johnston and Mike Mortlock

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