Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka

(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse

(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?

(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine

(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and

(40:43) – Ukraine's F16's

(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war

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Referenced in the Show:

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CI Site: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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