The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

#189: 2022 Review and 2023 Predictions - What did we get right? And what did we not predict?


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In this week’s episode, Dave, Cate and Pete take you through their 2023 predictions, but they also review their 2022 forecasts. Tune in to find out... 1. What will the market do? It seems the trio were optimistic in their predictions for 2023, but Cate did add a little disclaimer stating "providing no shocks to the market". It appears that imminent interest rate rises were not easily predicted by the trio at the start of 2022. 2. Capital city top performers - Pete's predictions for capital city performers landed closest to the pin, however Dave did have some interesting insights into Melbourne and Perth's growth and the impact of COVID on each city. 3. Regional locations - Pete tipped that regional cities within a reasonable distance of the capital city would continue to outperform, while Cate pointed out the risk for holiday house and coastal market buyers as the heat comes out of the COVID escape locations. 4. Investor numbers - Funnily enough, the trio's mention of APRA restrictions or regulator intervention underpinned their reservations about investor participation in 2022.   5. Government intervention in the property market - Pete and Cate did not see interest rate increases coming, but Dave did think that APRIL would step in to restrict lending to some degree. As Pete points out though, there didn't need to be any intervention. The RBA took care of that issue for us!  6. Developers and building - Our trio got a lot of these predictions right.  Into 2023, Cate thinks that private builders will start to free up and Pete supports a slow recovery as the supply chain woes subside. Dave is still fearful for building activity due to materials costs remaining high and trade labour shortages. 7. Interest rates -  what do the trio think will happen this year? Pete thinks that the cash rate will be slightly lower at end-2023 than it is today, and Cate broadly agrees, but predicts some different increase increments to Pete's. Dave feels our rate at year end will be the same as today's. Time will tell!... 8. Rents and vacancy rates - The trio each saw some difficult writing on the wall as stock tightened in 2022. Dave feels the vacancy rates will remain static (historically low) while Cate feels things will get much worse for renters into 2023. 9. Sales volumes - Pete felt that sales volumes would remain high, and Cate's prediction was not correct at all. Surprisingly for the trio, vendor listing and selling activity was lower than previous years. In hindsight this is easily explained by sentiment dropping in response to rapidly increasing interest rates. 10. Risks which could impact the market - This time, Cate did get some of her past predictions correct, and it was Dave who predicted that Russia could invade Ukraine. 11. Inflation - Dave identified rising inflation in his prediction, and the trio pondered the inflation outlook for 2023. Listen in to hear what they each predict for 2023. Cate Bakos, the 'Property Buyer's Gold Nugget: Buyers who are prepared to bid at auction will have favourable conditions because many are anxious. about bidding unconditionally, and are sitting it out.  David Johnston, the 'Property Planner's Gold Nugget: Dave believes that 2023 is going to prove to be a great time to buy and current market conditions will represent the low water mark. Show notes here: https://propertyplanning.com.au/2022-review-and-2023-predictions-what-did-we-get-right-and-what-did-we-not-predict-ep-189/
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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)By Cate Bakos, David Johnston and Mike Mortlock

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