October 13, 2025

226: How To Get Lucky | Wharton Professor Judd Kessler

28 minutes

Judd Kessler is a Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. A leading scholar of market design, he was named one of Forbes’ 30 Under 30 for his groundbreaking work on organ allocation and received the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize for his pioneering research. His insights have been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, and on Hidden Brain and Freakonomics. With degrees from Harvard and Cambridge, Judd studies the hidden markets that shape our lives and how we can navigate them more effectively. He is also the author of the book, Lucky be Design.

In this episode we discuss the following:

The most common way to allocate scarce resources is through pricing. But other mechanisms exist: hidden markets. And by staying alert for these hidden markets, we can increase our luck.

One of the most common hidden markets is the race: first come, first serve. In Judd’s case, when he realized that demand was going to outstrip supply for his child’s after school program, he recognized he was in a race, so he made sure to sign up right when registration opened. And he increased his luck.

The lottery is another hidden market. If four friends wanted to attend Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, they increase their luck by each entering the lottery for four tickets each. Hunters increase their luck by entering the lottery in years when they’re not able to hunt. And people needing organ transplants increase their luck when they sign up through multiple transplant centers.

To get lucky in the dating app world, people can signal that they are worth investing in. And then I loved Judd’s insight on settling for silver. Whether we’re trying to get lucky in college admissions, with restaurant reservations, or even in the dating market, we can increase our luck by pursuing a more attainable, less competitive option. And in many cases the silver turns out to be more desirable than the gold.

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By Nate Meikle