Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


The Trio love this retrospective. Each year, they predict the following year and at year end, they review their predictions and rate each other's accuracy.  

Today's show is a lot of fun, and it's our longest podcast recording ever.... sorry folks. We will try to keep it under an hour going forward. 

Dave got the best score for our first question; "What will the market do?" 

• "I think we'll see value growth of about 2% to 7% nationally next year."
• "I think the market will be weighed down by Melbourne and Sydney as they're starting to move into negative territory."
• "There'll be some good buying opportunities in Melbourne and Sydney for the first three to six months, but because they are about 50% of the overall Australian property market, I think they'll hold it back."
• "I think rental growth will outstrip value growth."

....solid marks for Dave on this one.

The second question was more specific. The Trio had to nominate their capital city top performers. How did they rate?  Cate's claim, "I'm going to go with Adelaide as the city that nails it". While she only picked the number two, her rationale was sound and she nominated the three top performers.

None of the Trio picked the strong regional areas though. 

Their fourth question related to investor numbers. There was almost a thirty per cent increase in investor activity, yet none of the Trio picked this trend. What gave way to it? Tune in to hear their thoughts. 

How did governments intervene in the property market? From superannuation changes to tax changes, shared equity and build to rent, our Trio did score some points on this segment of their predictions. And Mike mentioned the chance of rent caps joining the conversation. 

What about developers and new builds? What did our crew get right with their predictions? Mike sheds light on liquidations and builder challenges. 

And.... the question that everyone wants to have answered. What will happen with interest rates? The Trio share what they based their opinions and projections on, and there are some great learnings for our listeners to glean. Kudos to Governor Bullock for explaining the Reserve Board's decisions each board meeting.  And just for those who wondered what Mike's prediction was? "I think we might end up getting a cut in the August meeting." Dave and Cate are still paying out on Mike.

Rents and Vacancy rates was the next discussion topic. The consensus is that Dave won this prediction.  "Vacancy rates will stay at similar levels, unfortunately. We might see a slight uptick, but they're going to stay pretty similar around record lows."
  "Rental growth, I think, will outstrip capital growth."

The Trio's predictions around sales volumes and listings were interesting. Cate sheds light on some of the challenges that buyer's agents face with agent's anecdotal claims. 

Risks that could impact the market was an intriguing segment. Dave's geopolitical views reinforced his willingness to go for the big ticket items, every time! From Trump to China and Russia, the Trio talk about some of the global challenges we face. Cate's concern about natural disasters and insurance costs scored her points on this segment. And Mike reminded our listeners of the following.  "Political intervention is the number one risk to perverting the market."
 
And lastly, how did the Trio feel inflation figures would wind up in 2024?  From trimmed mean figures to post-COVID challenges, the Trio thrive with this discussion. Mike and Cate concede that Dave won this challenge.

Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/27/distilling-2024-predictions/