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It's another bumper episode, and we promise we won't keep clocking one hour eps.

Following on from last week's retrospective on how the Trio went with their 2024 predictions, this time they each shared their 2025 predictions.

What will the market do? - Cate thinks that 2025 will be a better market than 2024. Cate guesstimates 7.5% growth, nationally. Mike thinks a slight underperformance is on the cards when contrasting 2025 to 2024. Mike's national growth prediction is 4%, and Dave's prediction for national growth is closely aligned with Mike's, at 3%.

Dave pitches 2026 the year of strong performance.

Capital city top performers - The Trio aren't completely aligned with their top three picks. Cate kicks off with her predictions Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne, (in this order). Cate expands on her reasons and Adelaide's economic health, job growth and irresistible pull for visitors holds it in good stead for Cate. But why has Cate picked Melbourne at number three? Tune in to find out.

Mike's selection is Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.

Dave is very optimistic about Perth's performance this year, but he shares some 2026 confidence in the Melbourne market. His runners up are Adelaide and Melbourne for 2025. 

Regional locations - The Trio have an array of regional locations, including Townsville, Toowoomba, Gold Coast and surrounds. While they are all aligned with their optimism about the QLD regions, NSW and Victoria get a special mention too. Cate comments about the relative affordability and appeal of regional Tasmanian cities too, but she ponders how WA regions will travel in 2025. Dave suggests that regional SA will be in the top three regional performers.

Investor numbers - With rate cuts and higher rental yields, will investor numbers grow from the 2024 numbers? Mike concurs and thinks a 10% increase in investor lending will follow in 2025, while Dave goes into some good detail about specific states and investor numbers. Cate considers the potential affect of share market volatility, and the impact of increasing intergenerational wealth, too.

Government intervention in property market - Cate is doubtful that Victoria will receive any further tightening of rental legislation, and Mike agrees. The spotlight could be on investors if they become too strong a force against first homebuyer numbers. What could happen if the coalition form government? And will APRA consider easing the 3% credit buffer in 2025? Tune in to hear their thoughts.

Developers and building - What incentives will be offered to increase new builds and ease housing affordability? From Rent to Buy, to offering increased returns for new property, Dave has a few ideas. Cate predicts some more cost-effective, private, builders will free up and this could impact our current market segmentation. Cate, Mike and Dave estimate increased building starts for 2025 with some specific percentages each....

Interest rates - the Trio have a bit of fun with this. After last year's predictions, they decided to be much more specific with their predictions. From Rate Tracker data, to election timing and inflation figures, our three muskateers name the months, the retrospective rate movements and the total 2025 net interest rate movement.

Rents/Vacancy rates - Which cities will relax back to historical norms, and which will stay tight? Or will the capital cities all move in sync? The Trio have varied predictions, ensuring they keep it entertaining for the listeners.

Sales volumes - Considering consumer confidence, listing volumes, and vendor-commitment to selling is important when predicting sales volumes. Cate reflects on the year that was, and contrasts some of the situations that vendors will be facing in 2025. What makes vendors sit on their hands? Mike considers some of the challenges we may face. Dave holds greater hope for the back half of 2025, reminding us all that he is anticipating a brighter 2026.

Risks which could impact the market - Cate kicks the discussion off with her concerns; Overseas migration reduction threatening economic prosperity, China and US trade sanctions, Higher oil prices, APRA intervention with investor activity, Stock market corrections, and Unemployment rising faster than forecasted. Mike forewarns us about insurance woes, and in particular in relation to natural disasters He also touches on global conflict and the severe impact conflict can have on the property market. Resource prices, Immigration and Construction undersupply are also on Mike's list. Dave tops up the list with the following: Waning productivity in our nation, Poor political decisions in relation to government debt, More taxes on investors and The breakdown of our relationship with China.

Inflation - The Trio are all very exacting with their predicted figures. Who will get it right? Who will get it wrong?

While it's been lots of fun, it's the conversations that they enjoyed and the thoughts they each generated that make this episode a special one.

Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/02/03/our-2025-predictions/