Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck. 

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read

Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/

Timestamps

00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green

01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down

05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs

06:21 The working poor

07:50 Childcare

09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different

12:10 The precarity line

13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%

16:30 What's the solution?

18:01 Implications of fixing the problem

21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally

24:18 Sentiment analysis

26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing

28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate

31:35 We need a different framework for poverty

32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes

34:45 Political implications

39:09 What Mike plans to do about it

40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum

46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green