The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)

#94: Purchasing property in Australia - the winner's curse and how to avoid it


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https://propertyplanning.com.au/propertyplannerbuyerprofessor/ In this week's Ep#75, of the Property Planner, Buyer and Professor Podcast, Dave, Cate and Pete take you through: Market insights 1. NZ abolishes negative gearing Any properties purchased after Saturday 27th of March will not attract tax deductibility on the interest portion of the repayments, while existing investment properties will have the negative gearing benefit phased out over the next 5 years. Although there is no silver bullet to cure housing affordability, could this be on the cards for Australia? Our trio discuss reasons it may or may not be a future policy setting of at least one party. As the Property Professor points out, investors share the task of providing shelter and this is something that our government is unable to deliver without the help of investors. 2. Increased agent activity unlikely to abate the pace of the market Although data shows an uptick in agent activity, which is a precursor to more stock on the market, it's unlikely that this will take the heat out of the market. Corresponding data for buyer search activity is going through the roof and any new stock on the market is likely to be swallowed quickly. 3. The bigger picture with property prices Darwin and Perth property prices are growing strongly, exciting many property owners and prospective home buyers and investors. However, when looking at the data, it's important to remember that although they've had strong growth recently (Darwin 16.7% and Perth 5%), prices are at the same level they were in 2009 and 2010. Data can be manipulated to support any intended view, so we advise you look beyond the superficial and news sound bites! The winner's curse and how to avoid it 1. What is the winner's curse? Where there's competition to win an asset that is in limited supply, (eg: a house), there can only be one winner. Typically, the person who wins the property pays the highest price. The winner's curse can manifest in concern and fear about overpaying. 2. Why are we prone to the winner's curse? It stems from our need for social proof to affirm that we've made a good decision and if we feel like we did not do enough research and analysis to accurately understand the market and/or our own financial position and goals. The fact that a buyer is willing to pay the highest affirms that no one else was willing to pay a price at that magnitude. This can make a buyer second guess all of the planning and preparation that went in to their decision in the first place. 3. When is it most likely to strike? The trio share the scenarios where the winner's curse is most likely to creep up on the successful purchaser. 4. How to combat the winner's curse Planning and preparation is a sure-fire way to avoid feeling concern that you've overpaid. The Property Planner and Buyer share their top tips on how to prepare so that you can be confident in your evaluation of the property's value and when to stretch beyond this price. You also need to understand your financial position, short and long-term goals clearly to buy confidently without regret. But if you can't help feeling the winner's curse, it's important to remember that if you're in it for the long-haul, the property market is forgiving if the property is held for many years to come. 5. The other side of the coin - loser's regret Loser's regret is the feeling of having been too conservative with the limit that you ended at in your bidding or highest offer, when you fail to purchase the property. This is particularly pertinent when you find out...
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The Property Trio (formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor)By Cate Bakos, David Johnston and Mike Mortlock

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