https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures

David Chapman's Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths In Subculture Evolution is rightfully a classic, but it doesn't match my own experience. Either through good luck or poor observational skills, I've never seen a lot of sociopath takeovers. Instead, I've seen a gradual process of declining asabiyyah. Good people start out working together, then work together a little less, then turn on each other, all while staying good people and thinking they alone embody the true spirit of the movement.

I find Peter Turchin's theories of civilizational cycles oddly helpful here, maybe moreso than for civilizations themselves. Riffing off his phase structure: