Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Friday, January 17, 2025. This is Nelson John, let's get started.

The upcoming Union budget for 2025-26 is set to focus heavily on agriculture, small businesses, boosting household spending, and creating more jobs, Dhirendra Kumar and Gireesh Chandra Prasad report. The plan is to introduce farmer incentives, support for MSMEs, and measures to increase consumer spending. Expect the budget to zoom in on promoting high-value agriculture—things like fruits, vegetables, and animal farming—to help small farmers grow their incomes. This will be backed by investments in technology and better marketing strategies. For MSMEs, the budget might offer easier credit options and ensure they get paid on time by larger companies. There could also be incentives for making industries like rice milling more energy-efficient, aligning with the nation’s renewable energy targets.

This week equity markets were hit hard, with investors losing over ₹12 trillion on Monday. A strong dollar and worries about fewer US rate cuts have drained liquidity and led to massive sell-offs globally. As the dollar index has climbed 9% since October, betting on a robust US economy and sustained inflation, riskier assets like emerging market equities have lost their lustre. Higher US treasury yields suggest that fewer rate cuts might be in store for 2025, further dampening the mood. In India, the economic outlook isn’t too rosy either. Reduced government spending, cooling credit, stubborn inflation, and sluggish demand are hurting corporate profits, making it difficult for Indian stocks to justify their high valuations. Abhinaba Saha writes about what could be expected from the market in the coming weeks. 

This month marks a big leap for connectivity in Kashmir with the launch of the first-ever train service linking Srinagar to the rest of the country. The new Vande Bharat Sleeper train, part of the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Railway Project (USBRL), will travel over 800 kilometers from New Delhi to Srinagar. This line not only promises faster travel times but also aims to boost the local economy by enhancing sectors like tourism and agriculture. Plus, it offers a reliable alternative to the often-blocked Srinagar-Jammu National Highway. While there’s excitement about the potential for growth and better connectivity, there are also worries about the environmental impact and the economic effects on Jammu’s local businesses. Irfan Amin Malik examines how Kashmir’s first rail link with the rest of India will impact its key sectors.

Hindenburg Research, the American short-seller famous for shaking up the corporate world, is closing its doors. Nathan Anderson, the founder, announced the shutdown without spilling the beans on why, only mentioning that he's ending on a high note. Hindenburg shot to fame in India after it lobbed serious fraud accusations at the Adani Group in January 2023, wiping billions from their market value overnight. Though Adani later recouped most of these losses, the impact was unforgettable. Adani’s CFO even threw a bit of shade on social media, hinting at outlasting their critics. This closure isn't just big news for Hindenburg; it’s a turning point for the world of short-sellers, who’ve been facing scrutiny and regulatory challenges across the world.

Reliance Industries Ltd announced on Thursday a 7.4% increase in its net profit for the December quarter, reaching Rs 18,540 crore, up from Rs 17,265 crore during the same period last year. The earnings per share also rose to Rs 13.70 from Rs 12.76. This growth comes as the company saw a strong performance in its retail business and an increase in telecom earnings. Sequentially, the profit rose from Rs 16,563 crore in the previous quarter. Revenue from operations also increased, hitting Rs 2.43 trillion compared to Rs 2.27 trillion in the October-December 2023 quarter.

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