Is it a mere lull? Or the first time in more than a year, can the Middle East point to genuine de-escalation? We ask about the timing of guns going mostly silent in Lebanon after both Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire. A ceasefire; not a peace treaty. Still, with Egypt now renewing moves to follow up with a truce in Gaza, we take stock of a region that’s still holding its breath.

At the centre of it all is the ultimate political survivor: Binyamin Netanyahu. But does Israel's longest-serving prime minister still need a forever war in Gaza to stave off inquiries into the failures of October 7 and his own corruption trial, where he has obtained another delay?

But it's about more than one man's fortunes. How much has the Middle East changed in the past 14 months? How much has it changed in 10 weeks of the heaviest fighting Lebanon has seen since 2006? What's left of the Iran-led axis of resistance? And what – if anything – will an incoming Trump administration change?

Produced by Aline Bottin, Rebecca Gnignati and Ilayda Habip.