Ozzie Gooen is the founder of the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI), a nonprofit building software tools for forecasting and policy analysis. I’ve known him through the rationality community since 2008 and we have a lot in common.

00:00 Introducing Ozzie

02:18 The Rationality Community

06:32 What’s Your P(Doom)™

08:09 High-Quality Discourse and Social Media

14:17 Guesstimate and Squiggle Demos

31:57 Prediction Markets and Rationality

38:33 Metaforecast Demo

41:23 Evaluating Everything with LLMs

47:00 Effective Altruism and FTX Scandal

56:00 The Repugnant Conclusion Debate

01:02:25 AI for Governance and Policy

01:12:07 PauseAI Policy Debate

01:30:10 Status Quo Bias

01:33:31 Decaf Coffee and Caffeine Powder

01:34:45 Are You Aspie?

01:37:45 Billionaires in Effective Altruism

01:48:06 Gradual Disempowerment by AI

01:55:36 LessOnline Conference

01:57:34 Supporting Ozzie’s Work

Show Notes

Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) — https://quantifieduncertainty.org

Ozzie’s Facebook — https://www.facebook.com/ozzie.gooen

Ozzie’s Twitter — https://x.com/ozziegooen

Guesstimate, a spreadsheet for working with probability ranges — https://www.getguesstimate.com

Squiggle, a programming language for building Monte Carlo simulations — https://www.squiggle-language.com

Metaforecast, a prediction market aggregator — https://metaforecast.org

Open Annotate, AI-powered content analysis — https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/open-annotate/

Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.online

Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence

PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info

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