In this episode, I break down Amazon's Q1 2025 earnings and examine what they reveal about the coming impact of tariffs on the e-commerce ecosystem. I talk about the winners and losers emerging from Amazon's $1 billion forward-buying strategy and what this means for vendors, sellers, and consumers.

I share surprising details about Amazon's massive advance purchases from 1P vendors, including reports of purchase orders covering an unusual 10-14 weeks of inventory for China-sourced items. I cover how Amazon's ad business is now its fastest-growing segment at 19% year-over-year growth, outpacing even AWS. I examine the expansion of Amazon Haul, their sub-$20 storefront launched to compete with Temu and Shein ahead of expected tariff impacts.

I analyze why consumers are stockpiling while simultaneously trading down to cheaper alternatives. I discuss how Chinese sellers are leveraging AI to compete with US brands, and why Amazon's preparation for tariff disruption signals deeper challenges ahead for the entire e-commerce industry.

Key Topics:

• Amazon's $1 billion forward-buying strategy to beat tariffs
• The diverging paths of 1P vendors and China-based sellers
• How Amazon's ad business is growing faster than AWS
• Why Amazon Haul could dominate as Temu faces 120-145% duties
• Consumer behavior shifts: panic buying on a budget
• The competitive dynamics between Chinese and US sellers
• What Q2 holds for the e-commerce ecosystem post-tariffs

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