Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

Prediction markets are rapidly emerging as one of the fastest-growing asset classes in global finance. Driven by market leaders such as Kalshi and Polymarket, annual trading volume on real-world outcomes — from political elections to major sporting events — is projected to surge to $300 billion this year, with the potential to reach $1 trillion by 2030. But a high-stakes regulatory battle is looming: state gambling regulators argue these sports-heavy contracts constitute illegal gambling, while operators insist they are federally regulated derivatives under the purview of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Brian Egger, senior gaming and lodging analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. They discuss the regulatory showdown, the impact on traditional sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel, and how financial markets utilize prediction market odds as real-time sentiment indicators.

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The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz upended global energy markets, but the feared catastrophic oil shock never materialized. Prior to the Middle East conflict, about 20 million barrels of oil and products flowed through the maritime chokepoint every day. Due to regional bypass pipelines, strategic reserve releases and voluntary demand reductions from China, the global system absorbed the impact. Now, major producers and exposed Asian consumers are doubling down on long-term diversification to secure their supply chains.

Salih Yilmaz, senior equity research analyst covering energy, oil and gas at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. He outlines his "Peak Hormuz" thesis, detailing how global energy flows are rapidly realigning, the structural shift toward energy resilience, and what this means for near-term oil prices.

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Chinese consumer sentiment isn't collapsing across the board, but retail sales growth is projected to hit a four-year low. While big-ticket categories like home appliances and autos crumble under subsidy fatigue, highly resilient segments are holding ground, particularly cosmetics, luxury, and premium sportswear. In e-commerce, Alibaba and rival giants are locked in a margin-crushing battle over agentic AI to capture shrinking wallets.

Catherine Lim, APAC head of Bloomberg Intelligence and senior consumer and technology analyst, joins John Lee to unpack her latest retail survey. Catherine reveals exactly where the wealthy plan to spend next -- which players, like Laopu Gold, are winning over shoppers, and how AI agents are reshaping the digital marketplace.

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A massive convergence of artificial intelligence, energy and security is sparking what is likely to be the largest and longest energy investment cycle in history, according to Morgan Stanley. Driven by the demands of AI data centers and a strategic shift from "just-in-time" cost efficiency to "just-in-case" resilience, more than $5 trillion in new-energy investments is projected for Asia over the next five years.

Mayank Maheshwari, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to break down this monumental shift. They discuss the rewiring of regional supply chains, how these investments will be financed, and the far-reaching implications across every asset class, sector and geography.

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What's driving Japan's historic bull market? And why are global investors finally returning to Tokyo after years on the sidelines? According to Goldman Sachs, it’s a rare convergence of factors including the global AI trade, inflation, corporate governance reform and an evolving macroeconomic landscape.

The firm also believes a regime shift is underway in the market, moving focus away from the high-growth, asset-light sectors such as software that dominated the past decade. Instead, they highlight a transition into "HALO" stocks: heavy assets, low obsolescence. These capital-intensive sectors, such as utilities and telecommunications, offer defensive barriers that can protect against AI disruption and geopolitical friction.

Bruce Kirk, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to unpack these trends and discuss the implications of Japan's changing market dynamics.

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The rise of single-stock ETFs, especially CSOP's 2x leveraged SK Hynix ETF listed in Hong Kong, is reshaping market dynamics. The daily rebalancing of these massive funds is contributing to higher volatility in equity markets, creating new challenges for investors. At the same time, high concentration risk and narrow market leadership are fundamentally changing how investors think about hedging.

In this special episode, featuring an excerpt recorded at the Singapore Volatility Forum on June 3, Oliver Chan, portfolio manager at Capula Investment Management; Stephane Martin, APAC head of derivatives institutional sales at Optiver; and Ivan Nurminsky, portfolio manager at Dymon, join Bloomberg News' Lianting Tu to discuss the hidden risks and opportunities in today's derivatives markets, including the surging popularity of the dispersion trade.

To listen to the full recording of the Forum beyond this excerpt, including the opening speech by Bloomberg Intelligence chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu on multi-asset volatility strategy and more, please click on the link to our sister podcast, FICC Focus. We hope you enjoy this episode.

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-options-considered-volatility-forum-singapore-2026/id1589459799?i=1000773012810

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4bRLGabkpuzCdg1xxCCUGP

Bloomberg Terminal: {NSN TGQJMKKJH6V8 }

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China is rewriting the global energy playbook, rapidly transforming into a clean energy powerhouse and emerging as the world's first "electrostate". While the Iran war has rattled global commodity markets, Beijing has successfully absorbed the shock due to a decade-long pivot toward domestic renewable energy. Now, it's positioning itself to reap economic rewards by exporting its green infrastructure to the rest of the world.

Jian Chang, Chief China Economist, and Dave Dai, APAC Head of Sustainable Investing Research, both from Barclays, join John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Together they unpack the economics behind China's green infrastructure exports and, with the US doubling down on fossil fuels, debate who will ultimately win the global energy race.

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China's property market is showing signs of life after a five-year slump, prompting some analysts to call for a long-awaited rebound. Price declines for newly built homes are narrowing, while transaction volumes are finally ticking up, particularly in top-tier cities. But is this a significant turnaround or just a dead cat bounce?

Leonid Mironov, a fund manager at Gavekal Capital, joins host John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. He breaks down why he believes the real estate sector is bottoming out rather than roaring back and explains why markets might be too bearish on China's consumption narrative. Mironov also discusses Beijing's "anti-involution" measures to curb cutthroat competition and details where investors can still find high-quality opportunities aligned with the government's 15th Five-Year Plan.

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Australia is emerging as a surprising beneficiary of new technological shifts, even as the country faces a growth hit from the Middle East war. Rapidly accelerating data construction is driving an unprecedented demand for copper, while battery solutions are fueling a massive consumption of lithium. Escalating geopolitical tension is also providing a powerful tailwind for rare earths as Western nations hunt for secure ex-China supply – all of which is highly positive for the country's mining sector.

Meanwhile, sticky inflation has forced the Reserve Bank of Australia to become one of the most hawkish central banks in the world, raising interest rates three times already this year. While high rates are dampening demand and cooling house prices, they are also proving to be a boon for earnings of the country's banks and insurers.

Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Matt Ingram joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss how these structural forces are reshaping corporate earnings, pushing the economy to move up the value chain, and redefining Australia's "lucky country" moniker.

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South Korea remains the world's hottest stock market, surging more than 250% over the past 18 months led by semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together account for over half of the entire Kospi index.

Fueled by the global AI infrastructure buildout, retail investors have poured close to $40 billion into the local market, sparking concerns about rising leverage and market volatility. A two-times leveraged SK Hynix ETF launched by CSOP in Hong Kong in October has already attracted inflows of more than $5 billion, making it the largest single-stock ETF in the world. Korean issuers are following suit with new domestic leveraged ETFs tied to these semiconductor giants.

Peter Kim, managing director and investment strategist at KB Securities in Seoul, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. Kim discusses the sustainability of the current bull market and the risks associated with momentum-driven retail investors. He also unpacks the corporate governance reforms aiming to attract longer-term capital and explains why global institutional investors are selling into the rally.

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