Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss their outlook for interest rate derivatives markets in 2024.

This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4554285-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speakers: 

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research

Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 29 November 2023.

In this podcast, Arindam Sandilya, Ladislav Jankovic, Lorenzo Ravagli and Juan Duran-Vara  we discuss the FX volatility backdrop and six themes that we think are worth watching for 2024. Namely, 1) carry collecting, 2) JPY and x-JPY directional and volatility, 3) efficient hedges for unwinds in Latam, 4) defensive, low decay forward volatility structures, 5) US elections pricing, and 6) Convexity.

This podcast was recorded on 27 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557523-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

World oil demand is on pace to grow a solid 1.9 mbd in 2023, 1.6 mbd in 2024 and will likely decelerate to 1mbd in 2025. More than offsetting this is growth in non-OPEC supply, which surged by 2.2 mbd in 2023 and will likely expand by 1.7 mbd in 2024 and 2 mbd in 2025. To keep the oil market balanced, OPEC+ alliance would need to continue to constrain production, which throws a sharp focus on OPEC+’s exit strategy. We expect Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary production/export cuts through 1Q24 and unwind 400 kbd of cuts in April. However, a case could be made for choosing higher volumes in order to achieve better optionality in the future. Our Brent forecasts for this year and next have not changed since June and are expected to average $81 for 2023 and $83 in 2024. We also extend our outlook through 2025 with an average Brent price target of $75/bbl.

Speakers

This podcast was recorded on 22 November 23

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4539172-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4567074-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this part one of the two-part year-ahead outlook podcast series, we explore the main FX themes for 2024 through a macro and systematic lens.

Speakers

Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy

This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4565749-0

https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4568084-0.pdf

for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The US cycle will be the big EM fixed income driver again in 2024, likely resolving either into a soft-landing or a recession. Given data equivalence will keep this unresolved in the near term, there is space for the smaller cycles of EM monetary policy and defaults to be the primary drivers of EM performance into the start of 2024. Stay OW EM FX focusing in high carry; receive EM rates front-end but stay MW in GBI-EM local duration; stay MW in EM Sovereign and Corporate credit. For FY 2024, we forecast local market (GBI-EM in USD) returns of 7.67%, with local yields -75bp to 5.76% and EM FX spot returns of -1.17%. We forecast EMBIGD spreads at 475bp (+50bp) and CEMBI BD spreads at 330bp (+30bp) for total returns of 12.2% and 10.0%, respectively.

Speakers:

Luis Oganes, Head of Global Macro Research

This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557696-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss the 2024 Rates Outlook.

This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4562369-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Over the past several months the TTF market has been provided strong reminders of the lack of spare capacity in the event of a major supply shock. This has left a premium embedded in price to remain in place despite storage still at 99% full and structural demand loss still seemingly in place for industrial and residential/commercial demand. We believe this price premium is justified for now with so much time still left in the winter withdrawal season, but that price premium could start to fade as the market gets a better view of December weather and should that weather not appear. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early indications of January weather were to also suggest milder than normal.

Speaker:

Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research

This podcast was recorded on November 10, 2023

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548305-0. For more information, please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet int 2024, taking into account the Fed’s monetary policy framework, the expected evolution of reserves and ON RRP balances, and what this means for the timeline for QT.

Speakers:

This podcast was recorded on 9 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4555154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.

This podcast was recorded on 09 November 2023.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.