Global Commodities: Russia can maintain current oil exports until June. Expect contentious June OPEC+ meeting

We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained refinery runs due to drone attacks and maintenance that runs from April through June lower processing rates. After June, Russia would likely have to cut exports to accommodate lower crude production setting the stage for a contentious June OPEC+ meeting.

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.

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