Autonomy Markets

This week Tesla unveiled their fleet API which could be a precursor to Tesla introducing a Cybercab service with 3rd party fleet operators. The company also begun the process of strategically positioning Cybercabs in showrooms, malls around the world and at high-profile events such as Art Basel in Miami. Tesla is effectively using these displays as a form of brand advertising.

While brand advertising builds interest, IPOs launch companies. This week, Pony AI went public raising $260 million and achieving a market capitalization of over $4 billion, despite having relatively low revenue. Pony AI is currently trading at 60 times revenue with a primary focus on the Chinese market. This approach could potentially have geopolitical implications as the company grows. 

Episode Chapters

0:00 Pony AI IPO

8:46 Tesla API for Fleets

13:22 Cybercab

16:21 Tesla Brand Advertising

21:07 Does Waymo Need Brand Activations? 

23:04 EV Politics 

26:03 New Mexico's Changing AV Regulations 

28:27 FTC

29:33 xAI

33:31 Waymo LA Crash

36:43 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

A significant shift in autonomous vehicle policy appears imminent with President-elect Trump’s plans to implement a national autonomous vehicle framework. Key cabinet appointments, including Congressman Duffy for Transportation Secretary and Pam Bondi for Attorney General, signal strong support for autonomy. 

The incoming administration is strategically positioning pro-autonomy officials, with the America First Policy Institute playing a crucial role in policy implementation. Regulatory clarity could accelerate autonomous vehicle deployment across state lines and investment, though bureaucratic resistance within the Department of Transportation and NHTSA remains a concern.

The market implications of these developments are already evident, with Altimeter Capital’s Brad Gerstner selling his entire Uber position due the growing competition Tesla and Waymo. Meanwhile, competition from has China intensified as Baidu completed 691,000 fully autonomous rides in Q3 2024, even though this still trails Waymo’s estimated 2 million autonomous rides in Q3. 

The emergence of Chinese autonomous vehicle companies including WeRide and Pony AI in public markets, along with Baidu’s announcement of a sub-$35,000 self-driving car, indicates the global race for autonomous vehicle leadership is accelerating as we prepare to enter 2025. 

Episode Chapters0:00 Investor Sentiment on Autonomous Vehicles 4:51 Tesla, Uber, Lyft Catalysts 14:28 Uber Autonomy Investments 15:46 Toyota and Pony AI17:12 Jaguar's Rebrand Impact on Waymo19:28 Trump's Autonomous Vehicle Personal 27:02 Autonomous Vehicles in China20:35 U.S. Policies37:37 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the Waymo's public launch in LA, Zoox's debut in San Francisco and the emergence of Bot Auto. 

This week Waymo removed the waitlist and opened the service to the public in Los Angeles in an 80 square mile area. Even though the public can now ride in the vehicles, there are extended wait times (up to 40 minutes) and the inability to use freeways, increasing the average ride time. 

Without freeways, the Waymo service is limited in major markets such as LA and San Francisco because of the increased travel time. While Waymo is working on highway driving, the service is not available to members of the public, yet.

In autonomous trucking, we are on the precipice of the emergence of the "big three": Aurora, Kodiak, and Bot Auto. Each company has distinct advantages—Aurora's partnership with Uber Freight, Kodiak's diversified business model and capital efficiency, and Bot Auto's plan to operate their own trucking service. 

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo's Los Angeles Public Launch 

4:10 Autonomous Vehicles on Freeways 

9:54 Zoox Hits The Road in San Francisco

18:27 Bot Auto

21:12 Autonomous Trucking Market

25:48 Highway Driving 

28:16 Instacart 

31:47 Off-Road Autonomy Market 

33:38 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

The election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States could dramatically reshape the autonomous vehicle industry, with Elon Musk positioned as a key influence in the new administration. A national framework for autonomous vehicles and trucks is expected to be a top priority, potentially overriding state-specific regulations like California's strict regulations.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Impact of the Presidential Election on Autonomy Markets 

11:07 Toyota & May Mobility

15:25 Lyft

17:02 Zoox

23:24 Autonomous Vehicle Policy

27:05 Tesla

33:18 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s new EMMA model (End-to-End Multimodal Model) for Autonomous Driving, their increased weekly ridership and how a shortage of skilled mechanics and technicians could slow down the growth of the Waymo One service. 

As Waymo grows their service, Zoox is now preparing to join the party and launch a robotaxi service in both San Francisco and Las Vegas next year. While Zoox is about to join the robotaxi party, Tesla and their desire to launch a robotaxi service continues to divide the public and the market.

Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo3:02 Autonomous Vehicle Mechanics5:46 Uber11:20 Pricing Waymo One14:53 Economy18:12 Waymo EMMA model (End-to-End Multimodal Model) Paper21:53 Tesla Shade27:28 Zoox31:41 Aurora Delays Driver Out Until April 202538:45 Lyft39:36 WeRide

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the opening of the autonomy IPO market and investors increasing desire to own autonomous vehicle companies. 

On October 23rd, Tesla’s stock rallied 20% following earnings that beat the street and Elon Musk’s continued commentary about Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions. WeRide completed its NASDAQ IPO raising $440M on October 25th, the same day Waymo announced a massive $5.6B funding round led by Alphabet with participation from Tiger Global and Sliver Lake.

Episode Chapters0:00 Capital Markets are Open3:07 Tesla Robotaxi Service in Palo Alto?5:43 The Interrelationships and Risks of the Elon Musk Companies 10:43 WeRide IPO19:37 Waymo's Latest Funding Round 23:17 Lucid is Finding Out Autonomy is Hard29:40 Wayve32:02 Cruise Goes Driverless in Houston33:16 Uber37:02 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the details emerging from Tesla’s robotaxi unveiling at We, Robot. Tesla’s robotaxi is projected to have a 200-mile range with FSD 13 powering Full Self-Driving Unsupervised. 

Could FSD 13 be Tesla’s breakthrough autonomy moment? Or will it be a later version of FSD? Later the conversation shifts to the emerging news about Uber’s potential acquisition of Expedia and what that acquisition would mean to both the travel and autonomy markets.

The IPO market for autonomy is heating up, as Horizon Robotics has filled for an IPO on the Hong Kong Exchange and Pony AI is preparing for a U.S. listing. Could this be a sign of things to come?

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 We, Robot 
• 15:39 Autonomy Use Cases 
• 18:48 Horizon Robotics and Pony.AI IPOs 
• 24:46 Potential; Uber / Expedia Deal 
• 33:24 Lyft Makes a Move? 
• 40:06 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s We Robot event, an event that Grayson has dubbed as “Autonomy Disneyland” and the markets mixed market reaction.

While the We Robot event was impressive and Disneyesque, it fell short on providing concrete details about timelines, financial projections, and technological progress in Tesla’s development of full self-driving (FSD). The lack of substantive details led to an 8% drop in Tesla’s stock price, while Uber and Lyft’ stocks gained on no further details about Tesla’s proposed robotaxi network service. 

Overall, the We Robot event was impressive. Cybercab, Robovan are Tesla’s vision for an autonomous future. Optimus is getting closer to moving into homes, and we suspect Tesla has something else up there sleeves. 

Episode Chapters

• 0:00 Optimus (Robots)
• 2:35 Full Self-Driving (FSD)
• 9:40 Cybercab
• 19:24 Uber & Lyft
• 26:12 Does Amazon Integrate Zoox into a Prime Mobility Tier?
• 28:33 Inductive Charging 
• 32:56 Autonomy Disneyland
• 34:54 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla's highly anticipated 10/10 We Robot event and what could be announced. Could Optimus have a friend? Could Tesla introduce Full Self-Driving (Supervised) for Tesla Semi? Will the robotaxi be a two passenger vehicle? There are lots of questions that will be answered next week live on the Warner Bros. backlot in Burbank, CA. As Tesla is poised to potentially change the market, Waymo has begun their early rider program in Austin, Texas in a 37 square mile ODD. Next up for early rider, Atlanta. We expect Waymo to begin Atlanta early rider access in November 2024. Then there is Zoox which announced a new partnership with the Vegas Golden Knights and delayed their Vegas robotaxi launch until 2025 as part of the announcement. Wrapping up the episode, Grayson and Walter discuss Xiaodi Hou's new start-up, Bot Auto and Uber Freight's growing role in the autonomous trucking ecosystem. Episode Chapters0:00 10/10 Tesla We Robot Event1:50 Venture Capitalists and Wall Street's Outlook on Autonomy Investments5:25 Perhaps a Two Passenger Tesla Robotaxi?7:06 Tesla Semi10:14 Waymo's Increased Testing of the Zeekr Vehicle 13:18 California's Autonomous Vehicle Bills Vetoed18:20 Waymo Begins Early Rider Access in Austin20:51 Zoox / Golden Knights Partnership 25:25 AVRide26:43 Sidewalk Delivery Bots30:12 Bot Auto33:38 Next WeekThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠[email protected]

In this episode of Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the U.S. Commerce Department’s proposed ruling to prohibit the sale or import of vehicles that have hardware and software integrated into the vehicle connectivity system (VCS) and software integrated into the Automated Driving System from China and Russia. They explored the potential impact of the proposed rule and what the broader implications for trade relations could be in the future.

Later the conversation delves into Waymo’s LA expansion and Grayson predicts Waymo will open the service to all members of the public within the next two months. As Waymo prepares to open the service to the public in LA, Grayson and Walter examine the communication strategies of autonomous vehicle companies, making the case for more transparent and frequent updates to build public support and investor confidence.

As investor hype is building as we get closer to Tesla’s “We Robot” event on October 10th, could GM try and get ahead of Tesla’s 10/10 event and make an announcement at GM investor day on 10/8 about a potential personally owned autonomous vehicle?

Wrapping up the episode, Grayson and Walter debate the decision by Apple to shut down Project Titan.

Episode Chapters

0:00 U.S. Commerce Department Proposed Autonomous Vehicle Ruling

4:10 Upcoming Autonomous Vehicle Policy Hearings in Texas

8:44 Uber / WeRide Partnership

11:13 Zoox

16:53 Waymo’s LA Expansion

19:52 Airport Pickups in Autonomous Vehicles

22:18 Autonomous Vehicle Media Strategies

26:16 Shrinking LiDAR Market

28:12 Tesla’s 10/10 We Robot Invites Are Out

29:53 GM Investor Day on 10/8

33:06 Jony Ive & Apple

36:02 Augmented Reality in Autonomous Vehicles

39:37 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/⁠ 

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠Sign up for research here.⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠[email protected]