This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s dedicated Supercharger build-out for Robotaxi in Arizona, Kodiak’s autonomous trucking operations in the Permian Basin, and Mobileye’s defensive posture on their Q1 earnings call.

With Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in Dallas and Houston this week, the conversation evolves into a deeper discussion around newly filed permits for 56 dedicated, non-public V4 Superchargers in Chandler, Arizona, and a second private charging depot in Mesa, signaling Tesla is building dedicated Robotaxi infrastructure as the original 12-market scale plan slips into Q3.

Out in the Permian Basin, Grayson conducted field work with Kodiak and Atlas Energy Solutions, inspected the depot, and watched fully autonomous trucks operate off-road in the middle of the oil fields, picking up sand at the end of the 40-mile Dune Express sand conveyor.

During Mobileye’s Q1 2026 earnings call, when asked about their autonomous driving partnerships, the tone turned defensive on Volkswagen’s longer-term commitment and the emerging competitive threat of NVIDIA’s growing ambitions.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Grayson and Walt discuss Huawei’s $11.7 billion continued commitment to autonomous driving on the mainland and Pony.ai’s plan to operate more than 3,000 robotaxis across 20 cities globally by the end of 2026, with over half deployed outside mainland China.

Episode Chapters

00:00 Permian Basin Field Work: Kodiak & Atlas Energy Solutions

08:51 Tesla Launches Unsupervised Robotaxi in Dallas and Houston

13:16 Tesla's Dedicated Robotaxi Superchargers in Arizona

15:38 AUTNMY AI

16:45 Avride's 200 Vehicles

19:19 A Tale of Two SPACs, PlusAI & Einride

20:45 Zoox Expands Testing to Miami and Las Vegas Airport

23:55 Mobileye Goes on Autonomy Defense

32:22 Foreign Autonomy Desk

34:24 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

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This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss autonomous military cargo helicopters, Caterpillar’s acquisition of Monarch Tractor’s intellectual property, and the termination of the PlusAI and Churchill Capital IX SPAC merger.

Airbus recently conducted its fourth flight test of the MQ-72C autonomous cargo helicopter for the United States Marine Corps, in partnership with L3Harris, Perry Labs, and Shield AI. While the test was a success, AUTNMY AI‘s proprietary OMEGA algorithm assesses that the MQ-72C will not achieve commercial deployment before 2028.

The market is potentially conflating the 2028 military initial operating capability target with commercial market entry, a category error that overstates the near-term commercial opportunity by two to three years and ignores the ITAR, FAA certification, and program authorization constraints that structurally preclude civilian deployment.

Then there is Caterpillar’s acquisition of the intellectual property and core assets of Monarch Tractor. This is not an agriculture story, this is a data story. Caterpillar is acquiring eight years of real-world field data, two to four million labeled frames across 40,000 acres of specialty crop terrain, and a patent portfolio covering obstacle avoidance, vehicle follow systems, and battery swap technology.

The Monarch acquisition represents a $15 to $40 million purchase of a $350 to $500 million replacement cost software and perception stack, compressing the model training timeline for edge case optical detection by an estimated 18 to 30 months.

While Caterpillar is ingesting data to accelerate its construction and mining autonomy programs, the autonomous trucking capital markets delivered a different signal this week. PlusAI and Churchill Capital IX mutually agreed to terminate their proposed business combination.

Even with the PlusAI SPAC being terminated, the autonomous trucking market as a whole remains healthy.

Episode Chapters

00:00 AUTNMY AI

01:16 Signal 1: Airbus Completes 4th Flight Test of the MQ-72C Autonomous Cargo Helicopter

23:29 Signal 2: Caterpillar Acquires Monarch Tractor IP

47:17 Signal 3: PlusAI and Churchill Capital IX SPAC Termination

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Subscribe today for free: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kelly Smith, Lead Systems Engineer for Autonomy, Kodiak Robotics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss deploying autonomous trucks at NASA speed.

Drawing on 13 years of experience engineering autonomy systems at NASA, including guidance software for the Orion spacecraft that flew to the moon and back on Artemis II, Kelly is applying aerospace-grade safety discipline to the deployment of autonomous trucks at Kodiak.

NASA’s approach to safety-critical software, including Class A flight software standards, probabilistic risk assessment, redundant flight computers, and dissimilar backup systems, is the same discipline Kodiak is applying to its autonomous operations in the Permian Basin and to its over-the-road deployment on the Dallas Fort-Worth to Atlanta lane.

Using a tool called Breakpoint to surface rare, high-consequence failure modes, Kodiak is continuously updating its risk model to responsibly burn down risk and safely scale autonomous trucking.

Episode Chapters

0:00 AUTNMY AI

0:37 13 Years of Autonomy at NASA

2:50 Space Latency

04:12 Returning to the Moon

06:09 Orion's Autonomy Stack

10:25 NASA's Mission-Critical Software

15:16 Reentry

19:35 Fully Autonomous Space Operations

24:43 Bringing NASA Rigor to Kodiak

28:49 Deploying Autonomous Trucks in the Permian

37:06 The Future of Mission-Critical Engineering

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expansion in Florida, Uber’s continued investments in physical assets, and the potential for agentic AI to disrupt traditional rideshare apps.

With Waymo opening service to the general public in Miami and Orlando this week, the conversation evolves into a deeper discussion around Disney’s strategic alliances and which company, Waymo or Glydways, will eventually secure a contract to operate at Walt Disney World.

Across the pond, Waymo began autonomous driving in London as Uber continues to pour capital into physical assets while doubling down on their Lucid investment with another $200 million. Uber’s physical asset strategy sparked a debate of whether or not Uber can truly remain asset-light and what impact agentic AI bots will have on their business.

On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Grayson and Walt discuss Japan’s autonomous vehicle investment goals, Tesla’s Netherlands FSD approval, and WeRide’s expansion into L2 ADAS.

Episode Chapters

00:00 Waymo Opens Miami & Orlando Markets, but No Disney World Yet

01:36 The Mickey Mouse Tax: Who Gets the Disney Contract?

07:54 Waymo Begins Autonomous Driving in London

08:53 Wayve Raises $60M from Chipmakers

12:32 Uber Doubles Down on Lucid

22:27 Lyft's Flexdrive Nashville Depot for Waymo

27:18 Will Agentic AI Make Rideshare Apps Obsolete?

28:00 Maryland Lawmakers Fail to Vote, State Does Not Get Autonomous Vehicles

30:36 Foreign Autonomy Desk

32:58 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Ukraine’s emerging role in the autonomy economy, the macroeconomic environment for Physical AI, train automation, and accelerating warehouse automation.

Ukraine has achieved the largest real-world stress testing of autonomous systems in recorded history, deploying ground and aerial systems for over 22,000 missions in the first three months of the year. AUTNMY AI‘s proprietary OMEGA algorithm assesses that Ukraine’s combat data-sharing initiative, which offers allied governments and tech startups access to real battlefield data, is the most underpriced event in the global autonomy economy.

Then there is the macroeconomic environment for Physical AI, that is fundamentally more supportive and durable than the hype of the 2017/2018 Industry 4.0 cycle. Today it’s all about economics and the return on investment. Unlike previously, companies can now deploy a $250,000 autonomous construction system to replace $180,000-a-year skilled labor cost and achieve an 18-month payback period that is practically immune to interest rate cycles.

While that is the Physical AI macroeconomic environment, the rail environment for autonomy is still in flux, despite a recently struck deal between Union Pacific and the American Train Dispatchers Association (ATDA). The deal between Union Pacific and ATDA will see the railroad guarantee lifetime employment for 1,300 current active dispatchers in exchange for supporting a proposed merger with Norfolk Southern and not opposing automation.

While the ATDA will not oppose automation as long as the merger closes, the 125,000-member SMART-TD union explicitly excluded automation concessions from their national agreement. With a new agreement coming in 2030, this is the one to watch.

While we wait for negotiations in that deal to open in 2029, warehouse automation is currently leading to a 10% increase in rents for automation-ready facilities. Premium, power-dense industrial properties are emerging as a foundational layer in the global autonomy economy.

Episode Chapters

00:00 AUTNMY AI

01:18 Signal 1: Ukraine’s Emerging Role in the Autonomy Economy

30:57 Signal 2: The Macro Environment for Physical AI

55:25 Signal 3: Train Automation Gains Steam in the U.S. (Or So it Appears)

1:18:41 Signal 4: Warehouse Automation Accelerates

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Subscribe today for free: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Millard, Co-Founder & CEO of Azalea Robotics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss building and deploying autonomous robotics baggage handling robots in airports.

The company’s flagship robot, the ARC One, is a mobile, cage-free autonomous system that utilizes suction gripper technology and computer vision to pick, scan, and place bags onto carts inside airport bag rooms.

With over 2 million bags lost annually in the U.S., Azalea is looking to solve the lost baggage problem. Requiring zero infrastructure modifications, Azalea is designed to scale with a flexible business model that enables airports and airlines to scale up and scale down as required by operations.

Episode Chapters

0:00 AUTNMY AI

0:24 Building Autonomous Baggage Handling Robots

5:44 ARC 1 Robot

9:34 Deploying ARC 1 Robots at Airports

27:57 Robots as a Service

38:50 Scaling Beyond Airports 

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading market intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Uber and VW validating the ID. Buzz in Los Angeles as they prepare for commercial service, Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service, and Waymo’s New York City dilemma.

With Uber and VW’s MOIA conducting on-road validation testing for the ID. Buzz in Los Angeles, the conversation evolves into a deeper discussion around what a launch means. Is it considered a launch if there are safety drivers?

As Uber launches new robotaxi markets with safety drivers, Waymo continues to open new markets without them. This week Waymo brought Nashville online with fully autonomous commercial service across a 60-square-mile area.

Waymo’s launch partner in Nashville is Lyft, but a post on X from Lyft CEO David Risher hinted that Lyft’s Flexdrive depot is not yet fully operational, leading Grayson and Walt to debate whether this deal came together faster than either side anticipated.

Then there is New York, a city that appears to not want autonomous vehicles. The New York City Department of Transportation did not renew Waymo’s testing permit, which expired on March 31st. Which means Waymo can no longer test in autonomous mode, but they can drive the city and gather data, acting as a mobile billboard to build local buzz and political pressure.

Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discuss Tesla FSD 14.3.

Episode Chapters

00:00 Sidewalk Robots in Philadelphia Go Overboard

01:33 Uber and MOIA Begin On-Road Validation Testing

08:35 Uber/Verne/Pony AI Launch First Europe Robotaxi Service

14:46 Waymo Open Nashville Market with Lyft

22:20 New York Says, No Autonomy For You!

30:47 Walt's Take on Tesla FSD 14.3

38:34 PlusAI's Revenue Projections

40:29 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading market intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss the Artemis II mission, Amazon’s coordinated embodied AI acquisitions, HD Hyundai’s Avikus DNV maritime autonomy certification from Norway, and declining AI bubble odds on Polymarket.

NASA’s Artemis II crew traveled 252,756 miles from Earth, surpassing Apollo 13 by over 4,000 miles. An achievement that is extraordinary in itself. AUTNMY AI‘s proprietary OMEGA algorithm identified the mission as a human supervised automation event, not a fully autonomous one, creating a semantic conflation risk as the market is mispricing how autonomous the program truly is today.

With Artemis III scheduled for 2028 and self-driving lunar terrain vehicles part of the mission, autonomous vehicles will most likely be operating on the moon before New York City due to New York State and City policy. The constraint is policy, not technology.

Amazon’s simultaneous acquisition of Fauna Robotics and RIVR is a coordinated platform play to acquire real world interaction data at a moment of physical AI data scarcity. While Amazon made acquisitions, BMW deployed a Hexagon wheeled humanoid on its German production line, and Figure AI said they can assemble a humanoid in 90 minutes, with consolidation emerging as the defining structural trend in embodied AI.

From embodied AI to maritime autonomy, the autonomy economy is beginning to take shape. HD Hyundai’s HiNAS navigation system recently received DNV type approval from Norway, enabling fully autonomous commercial vessel operations as the risk of NVIDIA moving into maritime autonomy and vertically integrating lingers.

Polymarket AI bubble odds declined to 19%. With OMEGA assesses that the bubble framing is wrong. The operative risk is which layer of the stack survives the transition from speculative deployment to industrial accountability.

Episode Chapters

00:00 AUTNMY AI

01:10 Signal 1: Artemis || Launch and the Autonomy Gap

25:21 Signal 2: Early Signs of Embodied AI Consolidation

57:12 Signal 3: Maritime Autonomy

01:16:46 Signal 4: Polymarket AI Bubble Odds Decline to 19%

01:23:39 Closing

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Subscribe today for free: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Greg Okopal, Co-Founder & COO, Overland AI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the founding of Overland AI at University of Washington.

Early on, Overland AI participated in the DARPA RACER program, growing from a company operating out of shipping containers at a rally driving school in Snoqualmie, Washington, to recently raising a $100 million round led by 8VC with continued participation from Point72 Ventures.

Today, Overland AI has autonomous vehicles embedded with the 82nd Airborne, where troops are actively using their flagship uncrewed vehicle, the Ultra, for last-mile resupply, establishing communications bubbles, and route-proofing ahead of manned convoys. The Ultra is designed to allow troops to easily swap payloads and perform maintenance directly in the field, increasing its modularity.

Episode Chapters

0:00 AUTNMY AI

0:24 DARPA RACER Program

7:43 Field First Development

16:30 Designing the Ultra

21:38 How Troops Are Using the Ultra

30:25 When Do Weapons Enter the Picture?

39:57 The Future of Overland AI

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the leading market intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.

Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo expanding service to the San Antonio Airport, the company’s need for another OEM partner and Baidu’s mishap in China.

With Waymo opening service at the San Antonio Airport complete with curbside drop offs and a short walk to the designated rideshare pickup area, the conversation evolves into a deeper discussion about airport politics and robotaxis.

Which brings us to Waymo and their current vehicle fleet. Does Waymo have enough vehicles to continue to scale at the pace they are scaling? Or do they need an additional OEM partner? Or will an 800 volt charging architecture solve their vehicle supply issue? Walt says Waymo needs more vehicles, while Grayson predicts that Waymo will announce an additional OEM partner by the end of the year and give the market more details on their relationship with Toyota.

Over in China, Baidu’s Apollo Go suffered a major mishap with vehicles stopping, causing crashes and trapping passengers for up to two hours in their robotaxis, raising questions about the current state of Chinese autonomous driving technology.

Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt discuss WeRide going driverless in Dubai with Uber and launching 11 vehicles in Singapore with Grab as part of the foreign autonomy desk.

Episode Chapters

00:00 Waymo Expands to the San Antonio Airport

06:07 Does Waymo Need Another OEM Partner?

13:24 800 Volt Charging Architecture and Fleet Scaling

19:05 Baidu's Apollo Go Robotaxis Fail in Wuhan

23:47 China's Autonomous Belt and Road Strategy

26:33 Waabi

30:02 Tesla Austin Robotaxi Expansion

33:14 FSD 14.3

38:00 Senator Markey Remote Operators Investigation

41:34 Foreign Autonomy Desk

45:50 Next Week

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About The Road to Autonomy

The Road to Autonomy is the definitive media brand covering the Autonomy Economy™. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.