Autonomy Markets

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Kodiak starting the process to become a publicly traded company, the anxiety leading up to Aurora’s driver-out commercial launch and Lyft’s expansion into Europe through the acquisition of FREENOW.Kodiak has officially filed to go public in a $2.5 billion SPAC deal, backed by a $100 million PIPE and a 100-truck order from Atlas Energy that signals strong market confidence. Aurora’s long-anticipated driver-out commercial launch is drawing closer, with industry watchers counting the days and parsing every signal for an indication of launch.On the platform side of autonomy, Lyft is expanding to the UK and Europe through a $197 million acquisition of FREENOW. Now that Lyft has European operations, there is a path for the company to scale robotaxis on two continents.It appears that Lyft is gearing up to compete with Uber more aggressively, while in the U.S., Waymo continues to grow their Waymo One service which overtime will capture market share from both Uber and Lyft. Meanwhile, Walt headed out to LA to get an on the ground understanding of how Waymo is scaling in the City of Angels and how Angelenos are currently thinking about autonomous vehicles. Episode Chapters0:00 Walt’s LA Adventure2:08 Waymos in LA9:40 Kodiak Files to Go Public17:10 HD Maps20:41 Aurora’s Driver-Out Moment24:22 Lyft Acquires FREENOW, Expands to Europe30:00 Nuro Expands to Japan31:10 Sidewalk Delivery Bots35:10 Tesla FSD38:27 Waymo’s Upcoming Atlanta Launch on Uber41:04 Next Week

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Wayve’s OEM partnership with Nissan, Nuro’s Series E capital raise and why the Uber/Waymo partnership in Austin does not guarantee future deployments. 

Wayve is going to power Nissan’s next-generation ProPILOT technology starting in fiscal year 2027. The deal with Nissan validates Wayve’s business model of licensing and raises the question of is Nuro next in line to secure a major OEM partnership? As the autonomy economy evolves, licensing autonomous driving systems is going to accelerate fragmentation, potentially benefitting both Uber and Lyft. 

In Austin, Waymo is available exclusively through Uber. While early signs point to success, it’s far from guaranteed that the partnership will scale beyond Austin and Atlanta, especially as Waymo continues to expand on it’s own with Waymo One.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Wayve Partners with Nissan 

3:12 Autonomous Driving OEM Partnerships 

5:24 Nuro Series E

7:12 Autonomous Driving Partnerships Ecosystem 

13:01 Could Tesla xAI Swap Assets?

17:19 Zoox Expands Testing to LA

18:27 Will Zoox Launch Commercial Service in 2025?

20:25 Waymo Needs More OEM Partnerships 

23:40 U.S. / China Policy 

28:00 Europe / China Policy 

31:19 Uber / Waymo Austin Data 

36:49 Unforced Error of The Week

38:52 Next Week

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo's unforced error with the Zeekr RT robotaxi, Uber's future with autonomous vehicles and the winners and losers from the latest round of tariffs.

Waymo’s Zeekr RT robotaxi has seen its price double due to a 100% tariff on Chinese-made vehicles, igniting a debate over whether Waymo made an unforced error with their Zeekr partnership. Could tariffs either accelerate a new OEM partnership for Waymo or see them abandon it all together?

Meanwhile, Uber’s autonomy ambitions are accelerating and gaining momentum globally. This week, Uber announced a partnership with WeRide and the Dubai Road and Transport Authority to deploy robotaxis in Dubai. Could Uber’s largest autonomy market end up being outside the U.S.? Grayson and Walter debate the issue, while exploring the implications that tariffs will have on the autonomy ecosystem.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Tariffs 

1:05 Impact of Tariffs on Waymo

6:26 Does Waymo Need to Slim Down?

9:10 Tesla FSD Unsupervised Launch

11:41 Tariffs and The Trucking Industry 

13:57 May Mobility 

14:27 LiDAR Market

18:25 Energy

22:46 Uber’s Global Ambitions 

25:15 Scaling Waymo

31:00 Uber App

37:23 Waymo Messaging 

40:17 Zoox

41:23 Lyft

46:37 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles 

49:58 Next Week

Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.

Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/

LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss their road trip to Forward Forth Worth, Waymo’s expansion to Washington, D.C. and the emerging opportunity in autonomous trucking.Texas is thriving capital of autonomous trucking with Aurora, Bot Auto, Kodiak, Torc and Waabi all having a presence in the state. Now autonomous vehicle companies are flocking to the state with Avride, May Mobility, Waymo and Zoox all having a presence in the state.While Texas emerges as the capital of autonomy, Waymo continues to solidify its lead as the world leader in robotaxis. With their lead in tact and the demand for their service growing, Waymo announced this week that they are expanding service to Washington, D.C. in 2026. As both Waymo continues to grow and expand, the economic impact of autonomy is only just beginning to be felt.Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo Subreddit 01:17 Forward Fort Worth03:10 Insurance06:55 Investing in Autonomous Trucking11:56 May Mobility Arlington Deployment 13:56 Autonomy Markets on the Road17:28 Waymo Announces Service is Coming to D.C. in 202621:41 Waymo / Uber Realtionship 26:50 Waymo Testing Zeekr Robotaxis on I-85 in Atlanta 27:44 Waymo, The World Leader in Robotaxis30:46 London 31:56 New York33:34 Autonomy Markets Confessions 34:34 Waymo Scheduled Rides38:05 Waymo Pricing41:08 Tesla’s June Robotaxi Launch48:03 Next Week
The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s mapping expansion to San Francisco International Airport (SFO), their continued Bay Area expansion and Tesla’s ambitious plans for launching a FSD Unsupervised. 

As Waymo begins mapping SFO, there are still hurdles that the company has to overcome before offering commercial service, as their current permit prohibits transporting commercial goods or passengers. When Waymo applies for their ground transportation operating permit, The Teamsters are expected to oppose Waymo’s permit application it in an effort to block the service. Despite this potential challenge, we expect commercial operations at the airport to begin by this summer, as there is a clear economic benefit to San Francisco’s economy. 

Down at Giga in Austin, Elon Musk held an all-hands meeting where he outlined his bold plans for FSD Unsupervised and the company’s upcoming robotaxi service. At some point, Tesla will “crack” full self-driving and when they do, Waymo will have their first true competitor.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Waymo Begins Mapping SFO

9:14 Waymo Airport Predictions (SFO, SJC, LAX)

11:13 Waymo Nashville Prediction

13:16 Waymo / Hyundai Prediction

14:38 Waymo’s Continued Bay Area Expansion 

19:13 Uber, Lyft and the Growth of Waymo

21:04 Waymo Zeekr Robotaxis

26:43 Waymo on Uber in Austin

30:59 Could Waymo be Expanding to the UK?

34:16 Tesla Unsupervised 

35:43 Tesla All-Hands Meeting

37:36 Tesla CPUC Permit

38:47 NVIDIA GTC

42:04 Truck OEMs

46:57 Unforced Error of The Week

48:51 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discus Waymo’s Bay Area expansion and what it means for the great highway and airport unlocks, our visit to May Mobility in Ann Arbor and Amazon’s struggles with Zoox.

Waymo has expanded its service area in the Bay Area by 50%, adding 27 square miles in Silicon Valley, for residents only at this time. Is this restriction due to a vehicle shortage? It very well could be, as Waymo continues to scale at a rapid pace in multiple markets.Is airport pick-up and drop-off at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) next? With Waymo’s growing service area in the Bay Area, it seems to only be a matter of time.

Demand for Waymo at SFO is there as in December 2024, there were approximately 13,366 searches for “SFO” on the Waymo app, and 718 people installed the app while physically at the airport.Once Waymo is allowed to operate at SFO, the economic impact is projected to be nearly $100 million. The positive economic impact is immense and California’s economy needs Waymo to succeed. When Waymo succeeds, California’s economy succeeds.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Autonomy Markets Visits May Mobility

7:28 Waymo’s Silicon Valley Expansion

11:25 Waymo’s Fleet Challenges

14:52 Waymo’s Eventual Expansion to SFO

24:20 Waymo LAX Service29:20 Wayve‘s ChatGPT Moment

34:41 What Does Amazon do with Zoox?

37:22 Could Autonomy Reaccelerate Growth at Apple?4

0:36 Did Uber Make a Mistake Selling ATG?

43:33 Unforced Error of The Week

44:33 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discus Waymo's launch in Austin, Alphabet's strong commitment to Waymo and Hyundai's robotaxi ambitions. On March 5, Waymo launched exclusively on the Uber app in Austin. However, riders cannot guarantee a Waymo vehicle, as there is no dedicated Waymo tier in the app. This lack of certainty could dilute the premium Waymo experience, as users do not know what type of vehicle they will be paired with when ordering a ride.As Waymo scales its operations globally, Hyundai is emerging as a major player in the robotaxi market. This week, Avride announced a partnership with Hyundai to develop a fully integrated robotaxi, with the first vehicles set to enter service this year in Dallas.Texas is emerging hub for autonomy for both robotaxis and autonomous trucks. Next month, Aurora will begin commercial driver-out operations from Dallas, followed by Bot Auto in Houston later this year. Autonomy is now becoming a business.Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo Experience on Uber7:01 Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Management Strategy9:29 Lyft’s Flexdrive12:17 Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACE Fleet14:46 Waymo Zeekr Robotaxi16:51 Alphabet’s Commitment to Waymo20:26 Waymo’s Pending Silver Lake / Los Feliz LA Expansion22:02 Autonomy Markets Nicknames23:16 Waymo’s Mysterious San Francisco X Post24:24 Walt’s Waymo Analysis25:46 Avride / Hyundai Robotaxi Partnership29:43 Bot Auto‘s Driver-Out Plans33:54 Wayve Expands to Germany35:56 Unforced Error of The Week38:20 Next WeekThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss why Waymo needs fewer robotaxis than you think and Tesla’s emerging plans for a robotaxi network in California.

Waymo continues to scale, surpassing 200,000 paid weekly rides across Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix. As the service grows, a group of power riders has emerged, including one rider in San Francisco spending over $900 a month on Waymo rides.

In California, Waymo now operates a fleet over 730 autonomous vehicles, while Tesla currently operates zero. That is about to change as Tesla has applied for a transportation charter-party carrier permit from the California Public Utilities Commission, the same permit Waymo currently operates under. 

If Tesla secures the permit, it will be able to launch a robotaxi service in California, but with two major caveats—fleets and safety drivers. At launch, Tesla owners won’t be able to add their vehicles to the network.

Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo’s Growing Weekly Paid Rides3:23 Waymo’s Fleet Efficiency9:10 Waymo Power Users12:01 Waymo’s Consistent Rider Experience15:17 Tesla Launches Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China16:30 Tesla’s Pending California Robotaxi Network19:58 Tesla / Waymo Competition22:24 Tesla Will Not License FSD26:00 Autonomous Vehicle Policy28:55 Wall Street’s View on Autonomy32:04 Unforced Error of The Week36:30 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Lyft’s autonomous vehicle manifesto, the impending consolidation of the LiDAR market, the emerging personally-owned autonomous vehicle fleet market, and Waabi’s driver-out strategy.Lyft’s manifesto highlights the potential for private car owners to integrate their personally-owned autonomous vehicles into the Lyft network, a concept similar to Elon Musk’s vision for Tesla owners. For this to become a reality and for autonomous vehicles to scale effectively, a national regulatory framework is essential.During his Senate confirmation hearing for Deputy Secretary of Transportation this week, Steven Bradbury expressed enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles and advocated for a federal framework. Mr. Bradbury also emphasized a market-driven approach to technology adoption, rather than government-mandated solutions such as LiDAR.Currently, the LiDAR market is dominated by Hesai, but consolidation looms a majority of the publicly-traded pure-play LiDAR companies face dwindling cash reserves and limited revenues.In the autonomous trucking market, Waabi aims to go driver-out on public roads by the end of the year. But can they pull it off? And if Volvo isn’t their OEM partner, who will be? Grayson and Walt debate the challenges ahead and the role of autonomous driving retrofit kits in the industry’s future.Episode Chapters0:00 Lyft’s Autonomous Vehicle Manifesto5:39 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles11:22 Fleet Management16:11 Waymo / Lyft Relationship18:05 Credit Card and Telco Partnerships20:10 May Mobility, Mobileye / Lyft Partnership22:02 Autonomous Vehicle Policy24:41 LiDAR Market31:05 Waabi Driver-Out Plans39:52 Autonomous Driving Technology47:04 Unforced Error of The Week49:08 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Walt’s recent trip to San Francisco, where he observed more aggressive driving from Waymo vehicles and spotted a FasTrak transponder—hinting that the great highway unlock is imminent.

In the markets, Aurora and Lyft reported earnings, with Aurora’s market cap soaring to $17 billion—triple Lyft’s $5 billion. On its earnings call, Aurora emphasized its driver-out readiness and their hardware kit approach, mirroring Kodiak’s SensorPods. If hardware kits are the future of autonomy, power could shift from OEMs to autonomous driving developers, opening new market opportunities and validating Kodiak’s OEM-agnostic strategy.

And then there’s NVIDIA. What if they acquired an autonomous driving developer and vertically integrated? How would the market respond? What would it mean for chip sales? As fragmentation grows in the autonomous vehicle market, so does Uber’s advantage. Opportunity abounds.

Episode Chapters

0:00 Walt’s San Francisco Trip

1:54 Hesai LiDAR

6:19 Waymo’s More Assertive Driving 

7:37 Should we be Concerned about Zoox?

13:08 Aurora Earnings 

16:43 Autonomous Driving Hardware Kits

21:43 Should NVIDIA Vertically Integrate an Autonomous Driving Stack?

26:24 Nuro’s Licensing Opportunity 

30:29 Uber’s Next Autonomy Partner—May Mobility?

33:50 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Management & Financing 

38:00 DoorDash’s Autonomous Delivery Ambitions 

40:57 Next Week

The Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.

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LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for research here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Each episode explores topics like streaming services, social media, digital transformation, and the future of entertainment technology. Closely followed by key decision-makers in the TMT industries, this podcast provides actionable analysis for investors, industry professionals, and tech enthusiasts. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠[email protected]⁠