05-06-2024 Bad Data is "Criminal"

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The data hustle, they’re no good at all.

Moves like a loser, they are mixed, up, down, done.

Dripping Oil, softening Gold, and cooling Copper lifted the short-end’s hope that the Fed will ease this year. Friday’s Jobs report helped.

Additionally, the Fed’s significant slowing of QT in June lowers liquidity risks and confirms that it understands the problems with restrictive policy, high-priced consumer debt, and elevated real rates.

With the YTD 10-year yield range being 3.81 to 4.74, expect surprises to take the yield beyond 5% and below 3.5% this year.

But Powell, Bears found love with a criminal. And bad data love isn't rational. It's physical.

Song: Criminal (2011) Britney Spears