05.26.26 "War of Change" or Peace

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It's a truth that in every war

Worlds collide, and deals get brokered.

Oil producers shut in wells when they run out of storage, and analysts say Iran will hit its limit in May. So, expect Iran to strike a peace deal. Consequently, assume oil stays below $100, then drifts below $80 by late May.

Meanwhile, look for fireworks in Ukraine to end in July, pushing prices under $70. Cheaper energy supports solid U.S. growth and mild inflation, pulling long‑term rates lower.

I feel it in my veins. These wars are going away.

Everything's about to change.

These views are mine. Join TMSpotlight to see how war news changes mortgage rates.

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Song: War of Change (2012) Thousand Foot Krutch

This podcast segment highlights the MBA's successful advocacy efforts that helped secure overwhelming bipartisan House passage of key housing reforms designed to improve affordability and strengthen the mortgage industry.

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Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program.

Artificial intelligence has rapidly become a cornerstone of innovation across industries, but one fundamental challenge remains: trust. Most AI systems operate on probabilities, offering predictions that often come with disclaimers and uncertainty. In this episode, we explore a newly granted patent that introduces the concept of "warranted intelligence"—an AI framework designed to provide deterministic, explainable, and fully traceable decisions. We discuss how this breakthrough could reshape mortgage lending, healthcare, financial services, and other high-stakes sectors where accuracy and accountability are essential. If AI is to become a trusted partner in critical decision-making, this patent may represent one of the most important milestones in the evolution of artificial intelligence.

Housing affordability remains one of the most pressing challenges facing the American dream, but understanding the solutions requires looking beyond the headlines and into the data. In this insightful episode, David Lykken sits down with renowned housing finance expert Laurie Goodman of the Urban Institute to explore the trends, policies, and innovations shaping the future of homeownership. From the remarkable success of modern loss mitigation programs and the untapped potential of renovation financing to refinancing reform, affordability challenges for younger generations, and the evolving role of institutional investors, Goodman provides a fact-based perspective on the issues driving today's housing market. Drawing on decades of research and policy analysis, she offers practical insights into how lenders, policymakers, and industry leaders can create a more accessible and sustainable housing finance system for future generations.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:

• Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.
• Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.
• David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.
• Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.
• Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.
• Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.
• Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.

Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

This podcast segment explores how mortgage lenders are adopting AI and automation to improve workflows, borrower engagement, and operational efficiency while highlighting the risks of scaling flawed processes without proper training and strategy.

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Allen Pollack, a Mortgage & Financial Services Technology Advisor, is a subject matter expert in the mortgage origination process along with software product management and software development.

In today’s financial services push to all things Digital, Allen has been helping lenders and financial services solution providers align their digital transformation and technology strategies by removing the human element of risk, and automating processes that drive efficiencies and margins into profits.

Over the course of his career, Allen has co-created and developed technology business models that have birthed highly successful, innovative solutions and companies.

Allen co-founded and served as CTO of New York Loan Exchange (NYLX), a loan product eligibility and pricing engine (PPE) that made an immediate impact on the industry, scaling the company quickly and forming partnerships with multiple mortgage and financial lending companies. In 2012, Allen was a co-founder of a merger between NYLX and Aklero Risk Analytics that created LoanLogics, A Mortgage Loan Quality and Performance Analytics company. Allen served as CTO where he continued to bring new and innovative product solutions to the market that made a significant impact to mortgage lenders that reduced risk, scaled business channels, and grew profits in a very competitive and highly regulated market.

Allen is also is mortgage and finance technology contributor on a weekly live industry podcast, Lykken on Lending, and is launching a new podcast soon to be released, TechStack Radio, dedicated to technology and innovation in Financial Services.

This podcast segment examines the remaining legislative obstacles to housing reform, including proposed HUD counseling mandates for delinquent borrowers and expanded FinCEN compliance requirements that could significantly increase operational burdens for mortgage lenders and servicers.

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Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

This podcast segment examines how escalating tensions in the Iran war, rising oil prices, and hotter-than-expected inflation data are driving Treasury yields higher and keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates.

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Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!

He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.

Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.

He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son, where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

05-19-2026 "Time Is Running Out" For The Bear Trend

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They wanted serfdom, bombs for destruction

They tried to give them up, but they’re addicted.

New data, coupled with unresolved peace deals, keep oil under pressure and Treasury yields and mortgage rates up. Iran’s situation has not changed. The terrorist regime wants to control its neighbors and drive Israelis into the sea with nuclear weapons.

The bear trend began, with the 10-year yield at 4.21. It’s now 4.60, with a gradual rate rise without a peace deal. But don’t be surprised when peace happens.

Iran’s time is running out

You can't push Oil underground

You can't sell it streaming out.

These views are mine. Join TMSpotlight to see how oil news changes rates.

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Song: Time Is Running Out (2007) Muse

In a mortgage industry built on relationships, trust, and long-term commitment, few names carry the respect and recognition of Chrisman. In this special Father's Day episode, David Lykken sits down with Rob Chrisman and his son, Robbie Chrisman, for a candid conversation about family, leadership, work ethic, and the values that have shaped one of the industry's most trusted brands. From the origins of the legendary Chrisman Commentary to the evolution of the Chrisman podcast, this episode explores how consistency, credibility, and service have been passed down across three generations. Beyond mortgage banking, it's a powerful discussion about parenting, legacy, personal discipline, and why showing up every day still matters in a rapidly changing world. Whether you're a lender, executive, entrepreneur, or parent, you'll walk away with timeless lessons on leadership and the impact one family can have on an entire industry.