Lykken on Lending

09-29-2026 Even Modelers Will Make “A Mistake”

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They’re gonna make a mistake

They’re gonna do it on purpose

Does it waste our time?

We all make mistakes. Modelers intentionally make mistakes to test scenarios and reveal truths not shown in official government statistics. Alternative data and models highlight the value of learning through trial and error and transparency.

The absence of the government spoon-feeding the Fed revealed the shadow modelers to a broader audience. They can gain insight sooner by making mistakes. Markets developed quite a taste…

…for a well-made Mistake. They wanna make A Mistake. Why can’t we make A Mistake?

These views are mine. Learn from mistakes at TMSpotlight.com.

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Song: A Mistake (1999) Fiona Apple

FHA is moving forward with its first comprehensive minimum property requirements update in 20 years, while MBA supports reforms aimed at modernizing standards and simplifying the partial claim process for mortgage servicers.

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Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program.

Artificial intelligence may no longer be the most provocative frontier in computing. In this episode of the Weekly AI Update, David Lykken and Pavan Agarwal explore the emerging field of biocomputing, where researchers are integrating living human neurons with electronic systems to perform computational tasks. From the remarkable energy efficiency and potential capabilities of biological computing to much deeper questions surrounding consciousness, ethics, regulation, and the boundaries of scientific innovation, this conversation asks whether we are witnessing the beginning of an extraordinary new era of computing—or approaching a line technology should not cross. David and Pavan also look ahead to developments at Angel AI, including a newly awarded patent involving the management of AI context windows.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:

• Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.
• Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.
• David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.
• Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.
• Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.
• Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.
• Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.

Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

What will it actually take to bring mortgage rates meaningfully lower? In this week’s discussion, we look beyond the latest Fed decision to examine the broader forces influencing the market, from government spending and geopolitical uncertainty to oil and diesel supply pressures, inflation, and the bond market’s response. The conversation also turns to an increasingly important issue for the secondary market: the growing use of VantageScore alongside FICO and how investors may price these loans as they begin building a performance history. With questions surrounding prepayment behavior, credit risk, specified pools, and potential pricing differences, the mortgage industry is entering a period where rates, energy markets, fiscal policy, and credit scoring are becoming increasingly interconnected—and understanding those relationships will be critical for lenders navigating what comes next.

A push for greater GSE credit-data transparency raises questions about whether investors could eventually evaluate mortgage risk beyond traditional FICO and VantageScore models, potentially affecting pricing, securitization, and the secondary market.

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Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

09-22-2026 Is the Fed on The Road to "Shambala?"

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Wash away Bonds’ troubles. Wash away price pain, with the reign of Grow-a-lot.

The economy is rolling along a bumpy road of inflation. So, the Fed tightens and placate the Bond vigilantes. However, nervous nellies on the short end see a fundamental shift: the Fed will raise rates much more.

Will rates stay higher for longer? An economy can thrive with little inflation while early-stage AI generates productivity gains. The 10-year yield might peek at 5.10. But, what trades first: 5.20 or 4.80?

How do the rates rise in the throes of A. I. gains

These views are mine. Understand change at TMSpotlight.

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Song: Shambala (1973) Three Dog Night

A busy week in Washington brings a Fed rate hike, key FHA and CFPB nominations, and a new AI supervisory framework aligned with MISMO’s approach to responsible AI governance.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communications at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program.

Everyone has a story—but too many leaders assume theirs isn’t worth telling. In this Hot Topic, David Lykken sits down with Matt Harms, founder of Pen for Hire NYC, to explore why writing a book can be one of the most powerful ways to share your experience, establish yourself as a thought leader, and leave a lasting legacy. Matt breaks down how to uncover the stories you may not realize you have, how ghostwriting can help turn those experiences into a compelling book, and where AI can—and cannot—fit into the creative process. From finding your “why” and developing an outline to choosing between traditional and self-publishing, this conversation offers a practical starting point for anyone who has ever thought, “I don’t have enough to write a book.” As Matt reminds us, every topic may have been written about before—but your story hasn’t.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:

• Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.
• Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.
• David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.
• Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.
• Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.
• Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.
• Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.

Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.