Show from 10/13/23

Hosts Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the economic uncertainties, such as rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential government shutdowns. Professor Siegel believes that while there are warning signs, the data does not indicate an imminent recession, attributing low unemployment claims and expected seasonal economic boosts as positive signs. He also argues that inflation is better than official numbers suggest, citing alternative metrics considering lagging factors like housing costs in the CPI calculation. (12:22) Samuel Rimes agrees with Professor Siegel that the Fed is unlikely to change rates soon due to volatile data points affecting monetary policy. On the topic of energy and inflation, Rimes highlights how the global energy landscape has evolved significantly, allowing for quick shifts in supply chains, and notes that U.S. oil production has been surprisingly robust due to technological advances, which is keeping oil prices lower than one might expect given current geopolitical tensions. They discuss how temporary external pressures like deficits and liquidity should be watched. Regarding margins and investment strategies, Samuel points out that cost benefits arise from improved supply chains and moderated costs in commodities and labor.

Guest:

Samuel Rines is the Managing Director of CORBU, a research intelligence and advisory platform at the intersection of markets, policy, and national security. Based in CORBU’s Houston, Texas office, Samuel is a global macro expert focused on the investment implications of politics and policy. His PolyMacro research and model portfolios are widely followed.

Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samuelerines

Follow him on Twitter: @SamuelRines