Bell Curve

Season 1 | Episode 5

In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Tristan Frizza (Zeta Markets) and Uddhav Marwaha (Friktion) to discuss the world of on-chain derivatives and liquidity. TradFi's derivatives market is magnitudes larger than spot, but on-chain derivatives are just getting started in crypto.

Why does crypto need derivatives like options and perpetuals? What type of users will use these products? And why is it so challenging to build these products on-chain? Tune in to learn these answers and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:05) The State of DeFi Derivatives

(05:58) Who Wants These Products?

(07:43) The Major Challenges of On-Chain Derivatives

(11:22) Building on Solana vs Other Chains

(16:35) Market Maker Incentives, CLOBs and AMMs

(22:55) Perps, Power Perps and Options

(28:27) The Fixed-Rate, Uncollateralized Lending Unlock

(36:21) High-Frequency Trading in TradFi and DeFi

(42:31) How Big is the Market Opportunity?

(46:52) Finding Product Market Fit

(51:51) Post Interview Thoughts

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Follow Tristan: https://twitter.com/tristan0x?lang=en

Follow Uddhav: https://twitter.com/degen_quant

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Resources:

Zee Prime's DeFi options article

https://zeeprime.capital/a-lot-of-on-chain-options-but-few-to-exercise

Paradigm gradual dutch auctions article

https://www.paradigm.xyz/2022/04/gda

Doug Colkitt on AMMs & CLOBS

https://twitter.com/0xdoug/status/1565446246957023234

Zeta Markets

https://www.zeta.markets/

Friktion

https://friktion.fi/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, we introduce the gaming mega thesis. Markets are an absolute mess, 99% of tokens won't hit their ATHs again, most old narratives will die, and the market is begging for a new catalyst. Could gaming be the catalyst we all need? Tune in to find out.

We then discuss the newly proposed stablecoin regulation, the merits of protocol-specific stablecoins, the $160 Wintermute hack, why most DAO governance fails and more. We keep it spicy, brief and fun - what else could you want?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:12) A Macro Mess & San Francisco's Turnaround?

(06:49) Why 99% of Tokens Are F*cked

(17:49) The Gaming Mega Thesis

(32:58) Modular Infrastructure

(36:11) Stablecoin Regulation

(43:45) Protocol Specific Stablecoins

(49:32) GMX “Exploit” & Oracle Based Pricing

(55:42) $160M Wintermute Hack

(01:02:52) Vitalik & DAO Governance

(01:10:57) Meme of the Week

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

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Resources:

San Francisco real estate crash

https://bit.ly/3DQfDEL

Gabriel Leydon podcast on crypto gaming

https://spoti.fi/3SlxoQi

Chris Dixon's article on crypto network affects

https://bit.ly/3xL1dSJ

Vitalik's DAO governance article

https://vitalik.ca/general/2022/09/20/daos.html

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Season 1 | Episode 4

In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Sid Powell (Maple Finance) and Teddy Woodward (Notional) to discuss the opportunity and complexity of on-chain uncollateralized lending.

We also explore the need for hyper-efficient capital, the importance of fixed rates in a low-margin environment, financing RWAs, on-chain credit scores and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:27) On-Chain Uncollateralized Lending

(16:52) DAO Borrowers

(27:54) Finding Product Market Fit

(34:36) Changing Interest Rate Environments

(38:24) Financing RWAs

(43:07) Fixed Rate Demand, Why Now?

(56:04) Projections for the Next 2-3 Years

(01:04:38) Debt-Driven Market Bubbles

(01:11:39) On-Chain Credit Scores

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Follow Sid: https://twitter.com/syrupsid

Follow Teddy: https://twitter.com/teddywoodward

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Resources:

Standard Oil Part I podcast

https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/standard-oil-part-i

Notional

https://www.notional.finance/

Maple Finance

https://www.maple.finance/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, we debate what the merge means for ETH long-term, why ESG ETH is a prime selling point and the PoS vs PoW debate. We then discuss the Cosmos thesis, MEV frameworks, the return of CeDeFi, why your NFT is not equity and more.

As usual, this episode is packed full of alpha and spicy takes.

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(02:01) The Merge, ESG ETH & PoS vs PoW Debate

(16:37) Cosmos Thesis, Aggregation and Gaming

(28:20) Blockchain Monetization & MEV Frameworks

(38:14) Compound Treasury, Bringing Institutional Fire Power to DeFi

(44:35) CeDeFi is Back & Tokenized Treasuries

(52:35) Fidelity Bitcoin Announcement & Evaluating New Projects

(1:00:01) Starbucks NFTs, Open Systems & Product Customer Mismatches

(1:11:43) Memes of the Week

(1:16:48) Doodles $704M Valuation & NFTs Aren't Equity

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Resources:

Delphi Cosmos Report

https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/finding-a-home-for-labs

SBF tweet thread on Coinbase earnings

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1458205105124257793

Brian Armstrong's tweet on Coinbase's new politician feature

https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1570133078022160384?

CoinShares' MakerDAO proposal

https://forum.makerdao.com/t/mip86-coinshares-usdc-institutional-rewards/17900

Compound Treasury announcement

https://bit.ly/3QOZTVs

Ledger meets Cobie tweet

https://twitter.com/ledgerstatus/status/1570450674902568960?

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Simon Jones (Voltz Labs) and Allan Niemerg (Yield Protocol) to explore the new use cases that fixed-rate lending and interest rate swaps bring to DeFi.

We also discuss how crypto is structurally variable, why financial markets need interest rate swaps, DeFi's base rate, DAO-to-DAO undercollateralized lending and much more!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(02:49) DeFi is structurally variable

(10:54) The ETH base rate & a DeFi native yield curve

(14:52) Interest rate swaps: 3 primary use cases

(19:17) DeFi use cases & undercollateralized lending

(30:24) Why are fixed rate markets in DeFi so small?

(42:36) A crypto-based sovereign debt market

(46:52) Will yield come from IRL assets or crypto-native sources?

(51:45) Fixed rates may catalyze the next bull cycle

(59:47) Post interview: takeaways

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Follow Simon: https://twitter.com/0xSimonJones

Follow Allan: https://twitter.com/niemerg

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Resources:

Yield Protocol

https://yieldprotocol.com/

Voltz Protocol

https://www.voltz.xyz/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, we discuss the upcoming merge and why ETH PoW may be a letdown for you degens. We also debate real vs nominal yields in crypto, the merits of the Coinbase MakerDAO deal, BUSD and the exchange race, on-chain IP and more.

As usual, this episode is packed full of alpha and spicy takes.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) ETH Merge Chaos

(13:02) Real Yield & Structural Flows

(26:00) Coinbase/MakerDAO Proposal

(38:02) DAI, USDC and Crypto’s Regulatory Future

(53:15) BUSD Announcement & the Big 3 Exchanges

(1:07:50) Sorare, SudoSwap and On-Chain IP

(1:15:10) Meme of the Week

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Resources:

Acquired podcast on Standard Oil

https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/standard-oil-part-i

SBF tweet thread on Coinbase earnings

https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1458205105124257793

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Tushar Jain from Multicoin Capital to discuss how fixed-rate lending, interest rate swaps and financial derivatives could be the catalyst for the next DeFi bull market.

We also explore the limits of undercollateralized lending, DAO capital markets, new token distribution models and more!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(04:32) Interest rate swaps & fixed rate demand

(15:01) Undercollateralized lending & DAO capital markets

(21:20) Yield Curves, perps, and dated futures

(30:35) New token distribution mechanisms

(37:02) Proof of Useful Work

(42:46) Solana Phone

(46:34) Will debt markets catalyze the next bull?

(50:05) Protocol-specific stablecoins

(52:47) Post interview: takeaways

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Follow Tushar: https://twitter.com/TusharJain_

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Resources:

Multicoin article on DeFi interest rate markets

https://multicoin.capital/2021/10/06/exploring-the-opportunity-for-defi-interest-rate-markets/

Multicoin article on proof of physical work

https://multicoin.capital/2022/04/05/proof-of-physical-work/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of Bell Curve, we debate the future of L1s and the new projects hitting the crypto scene. Has the window closed for a new competitor? Or will the hot ball of money find new, niche projects that don't have the tech debt of the L1 dinos?

We also explore the future of CLOBs vs AMMs, the potential rollup future, Maker DAO's end game and a few of our favorite memes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:16) DXY strong & macro

(05:39) L1 majors performance review

(08:38) Avalanche lawsuit

(17:08) DeFi’s pitiful performance vs ETH

(21:08) New L1s, do they have a chance?

(31:19) Are CLOBs the future?

(35:59) Arbitrum Nitro & the Rollup thesis

(45:47) MakerDAO’s end game & the future of OG DeFi

(1:05:17) Aave update & Michael Saylor tax evasion

(01:10:28) Tweet of the week, memes and more

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz

Follow Bell Curve: https://twitter.com/thebellcurvepod

Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9

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Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH

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Resources:

Avalanche Allegations

https://cryptoleaks.info/case-no-3

Rune's "free float" DAI post

https://bit.ly/3RskrDL

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Season 1 | Episode 1

In this episode of Bell Curve, Jason and Mike are joined by Vance Spencer and Michael Anderson from Framework Ventures to discuss the next era of DeFi. We discuss the core advantages of DeFi over CeFi, the state of crypto's derivatives market, DeFi yields, DAO capital markets and what to expect in the next bull cycle. 

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:12) CeFi’s Epic Implosion

(15:57) How Leverage Works in DeFi vs CeFi

(22:11) DeFi Options and Derivatives

(27:06) DeFi’s 4 Main Advantages Over CeFi

(32:10) Who Are the Borrowers That Will Fuel the Credit Boom? 

(36:06) Crypto’s Risk-Free Rate & New Innovations

(51:56) DAO Capital Markets

(54:18) What Should We Expect Next Cycle?

(01:01:04) Post Interview: Takeaways

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Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Resources:

Perpetual Futures

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perpetual_futures

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi.

What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first?

These are a few of the questions we'll explore as we put our thesis to the test. Join Jason and Mike in this season one pilot episode, where we provide context for our thesis and explain what you should expect in the upcoming episodes.

If you consider yourself a curious degen, builder or investor: this show is for you.

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Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9

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- -

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.