Major escalation or final gesture? Nine weeks before handing over power to Donald Trump, US President Joe Biden has approved the use of American-made long-range missiles by Ukraine inside Russian territory. The decision comes in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops to the front lines in the Kursk region. Will the missiles be limited to this area, and what will US policy look like after Inauguration Day on January 20?

On the eve of the decision, Ukraine’s president acknowledged that, as his forces lose ground, 2025 could be the year his country sits down at the negotiating table. With NATO-skeptic Donald Trump on the horizon, how will the next few weeks shape the situation? Will countries like France and the UK continue to follow the US lead on the use of long-range missiles? Europe remains far from the strategic autonomy championed by Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has warned of “a rise in tensions,” a familiar refrain whenever the West crosses its red lines in Ukraine. Will this time be different?