Bloomberg Surveillance

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist at Morgan Stanley, Sarah Hunt, Chief Markets Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, and Kristina Campmany, Senior Portfolio Manager at Invesco, react to the April jobs figures. The S&P 500 has notched eight consecutive days of gains, its longest run since August, amid increased optimism that trade tensions are waning, but many strategists feel a market bull run will be driven by strong economic data.
2) Gene Seroka, CEO of the Port of LA, joins for a discussion on how tariffs on China are affecting port traffic and what it could mean for the US economy. In March, Seroka predicted a possible 10% volume decline in the second half of this year due to substantial inventory and tariff uncertainty. Port data continues to be of interest to economists and market watchers.
3) Anurag Rana, Senior Tech Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, wraps big tech earnings. Tech earnings and expectations of trade deals drove optimism in the markets, with investors awaiting the US jobs report on Friday, the last significant data release this week.
4) Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about his Foreign Affairs piece on why trade wars are easy to lose. Still, market sentiment has remained upbeat due to reports of the US reaching out to China for tariff talks, causing the dollar index to climb and Treasury yields to rise.
5) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, brings us into the market open and discusses whether the US has stepped too far into the trade war and whether a recession is inevitable. While Wall Street's risk appetite has increased due to strong tech earnings - causing the S&P 500 to rise for eight consecutive days - it's unclear where trade deals with China and other partners will end up.

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Amazon.com gave a weaker-than-expected forecast for operating profit in the current quarter, pointing toward tariffs and trade policies that may cause consumers to pull back on spending. The world’s largest online retailer projected operating profit of $13 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with an average estimate of $17.8 billion. Sales will be $159 billion to $164 billion in the period ending in June, the company said Thursday in a statement. Analysts, on average, expected $161.4 billion.

Amazon shares have fallen about 13% this year as Wall Street weighs the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on a retail operation that sources much of its goods from China. Investors are generally bullish on the company’s efforts to become a major force in artificial intelligence, but there are concerns that Amazon’s prodigious spending on data centers may not translate into meaningful sales growth any time soon.

Amazon Web Services, the largest seller of rented computing power, reported first-quarter sales gained 17% to $29.3 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates. It was the unit’s slowest growth in a year.
For instant reaction and analysis, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

• Bloomberg Technology co-host Caroline Hyde
• Bloomberg Intelligence senior US e-commerce and retail analyst Poonam Goyal

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Dan Ives & Gene Munster.

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- Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank
- Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel
- Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities
- Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets

Binky Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist at Deutsche Bank, discusses his most recent S&P 500 target and his outlook for US equities amid continued uncertainty over US tariffs. Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel, talks about the Trump admin's economic policies and flexibility in pivoting and adjusting its approach to tariffs. Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, discusses Big Tech earnings, previews Apple, and talks Tesla leadership. Ian Lyngen, Head: US Rates Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, talks about the outlook for the 10-year yield and whether Treasuries are set to fall.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 1st, 2025
Featuring:
1) Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins to talk "calm(er)" markets, labor data, and Investing Day. In the premarket, US equity futures rallied on stronger-than-expected tech earnings and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. Tech giants added to investor optimism that deals between the US and its partners would limit the damage from President Donald Trump’s trade war, and traders boosted bets on Fed easing later this year.
2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, joins to talk big tech earnings and Tesla leadership. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm denied a report that the board was looking to replace CEO Elon Musk, saying directors are "highly confident" in his ability. The denial came after a Wall Street Journal report that Tesla board members had contacted executive search firms to find a successor to Musk earlier this year.
3) Leland Miller, CEO at China Beige Book, joins to talk about his latest China data release, Trump's China tariffs play, and the president's willingness to pivot. President Trump acknowledged that his tariff program had a perception problem and posed a significant political risk, but he remained determined to push on. Trump stated that there was a "very good chance" he would strike a deal with China, but only "on our terms" and if it's "fair".
4) Brad Lander, NYC Comptroller & Mayoral Candidate, joins to discuss his NYC mayoral campaign, congestion pricing, Trump's tariffs, and other city issues.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story on how AI is helping job seekers pivot to new careers and another story on a Sam Altman-Backed startup rolling out eyeball-scanning tech across the US.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Jim Caron & Peter Tchir.

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- Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC
- Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport
- Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook
- Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC, looks ahead to this week's jobs report and other economic data soon-to-be-released, and whether he sees investors having to weather a recession in 2025. Ryan Petersen, Chairman, CEO, and founder of Flexport, discusses supply chain constraints and navigating the trade war. Christopher Hughes, co-founder of Facebook, discusses the company and Big Tech ahead of Meta earnings. Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, discusses his outlook for the US economy and interest rates and talks Fed independence.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 30th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, joins for an extended discussion on her weekly global credit report and discusses corporate credit spreads and signals from the bond market. Uncertainty continues to be the main theme across the investing world. Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius said he’s keeping 95% of his funds’ holdings in cash as he waits out the trade-related uncertainty. Hedge funds are reluctant to make major bets amid the turmoil, with the only significant shift in positioning in April being increased bets against US stocks, Bloomberg reported.
2) Jim Caron, CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, talks about whether the dollar and US treasuries are still safe havens and how he tries to contextualize that discussion. In a broader look at the economy, real GDP likely slowed to a standstill in the first quarter as President Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg economists.
3) George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, joins to discuss economic fundamentals and incoming eco data and how that, possibly more than policy, will shape markets in the coming months. Stock drifted in early trading as investors await a busy day of earnings and macro data on the final session of an exhausting month. Mag 7 results, GDP and inflation numbers are potential catalysts for market direction.
4) Sinjin Bowron, High Yield Bond and Senior Bank Loan Portfolio Manager at Beach Point Capital, discusses leveraged credit markets, opportunities and challenges amid widening uncertainty, and other signals from the bond market. US Treasuries held recent gains as traders awaited data on inflation and economic growth, as well as the debt management team's plans for sales in the $29 trillion market.
5) Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, brings us into the market open and talks about allocating and staying the course in a slowing economy. Economic data due this week includes inflation and gross-domestic-product data, which will provide a snapshot of US economic activity before President Trump's trade policy shifts.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Elizabeth Economy & Ethan Harris.

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- Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America
- Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab
- Kathy Bostjancic Chief Economist at Nationwide
- Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research

Savita Subramanian, Head: US Equity & Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, joins to discuss the outlook for US equities and whether fundamentals are still in place for a bull run. Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses signals from the bond market and outlook for Treasuries. Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, and Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, preview this week's jobs report and talk about the outlook for the US economy and eco data in the US.

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