Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Ira Jersey & Pat Haskell.

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- Chris Harvey, Head: Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo
- Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries
- Richard Bernstein, CEO and CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors
- Ruchir Sharma, CIO at Breakout Capital Partners

Chris Harvey, Head: Equity Strategy at Wells Fargo, joins to discuss whether equities could fall further now that President Trump's tariffs have taken effect. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries, talks about guidance and earnings from airlines and how tariffs could affect profit margins. Richard Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors discusses the outlook for equities and bond amid recent selloffs. Ruchir Sharma, CIO at Breakout Capital Partners, talks about how public policy is reshaping markets and talks about the US economic outlook this year.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 9th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Viktor Hjort, Global Head of Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas, joins to discuss the global bond selloff and whether the Fed will have to step in. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries briefly surpassed 5%, fueling the biggest selloff since 2020, with investors worried about President Donald Trump's tariffs and their potential impact on the economy and inflation.
2) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, joins for an extended discussion on tariffs, the US economy, and outlook for inflation and stagflation. Theories abound about the cause of the bond selloff, including foreign selling of US debt, hedge funds unwinding positions, and a re-evaluation of US government debt by global reserve managers, with some predicting the Federal Reserve may need to step in to stabilize the bond market.
3) Greg Peters, Co-CIO at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses the bond market rout this morning. China retaliated to US tariffs with new levies of its own, causing a global market selloff, with US equity futures falling over 2% and European stocks plunging 4%. The selloff has affected various markets, including currencies, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and commodities, with oil prices falling to around $55 a barrel and the dollar weakening.
4) Ernie Tedeschi, Director of Economics at Yale Budget Lab, talks about their latest report on tariffs now that they've been implemented. Trump's reciprocal tariffs are now in place, imposing levies on China and 60 other trading partners with trade surpluses with the US. The tariffs have raised concerns about a full-blown trade war, with Asian countries bearing the brunt, and have led to a selloff in Treasuries and a decline in Asian and European shares.
5) Amanda Agati, CIO: Asset Allocation at PNC, on her equity outlook given tariffs and cracks emerging in the credit market. The US stock index has plunged nearly 19% since its February peak and is flirting with bear market levels, with the benchmark closing below the 5,000 level for the first time in nearly a year.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Dr. Paul Krugman & Libby Cantrill.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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- Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers
- Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI
- Skylar Montgomery-Koning, FX Strategist at Barclays
- Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler & Co.

Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers at The White House, joins to discuss President Trump's tariff strategy. Julian Emanuel, Chief Equity & Quantitative Strategist at Evercore ISI, joins for a discussion on the outlook for US equities and whether the market will rebound should it get clarity on tariff policy. Skylar Montgomery-Koning, FX Strategist at Barclays, discusses a weakening US dollar and how currencies are being reshaped by President Trump's economic policy. Nancy Lazar, Chief Global Economist at Piper Sandler & Co., joins to discuss whether the US could enter a recession in 2025 and risks to the market.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 8th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Dr. Paul Krugman, economist and long time NY Times columnist, joins for an extended discussion about tariffs, trade wars, and DOGE. Investors remain on edge over tariff policy, inflation, and potential labor disruptions, as President Trump recently threatened to impose an additional 50% import tax on China if it doesn't pull back from its plan to impose retaliatory levies on American goods.
2) John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., joins to discuss lowering his highest-on-Wall Street S&P target and whether he believes equities will bounce back in 2025. Investors remain flummoxed after President Trump's recent remarks and those of his advisers have created confusion and volatility in markets, with investors struggling to understand his negotiating criteria and the lack of a streamlined process for considering exceptions to the tariffs.
3) Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow - Atlantic Council, discusses oil dropping below $60 a barrel, hitting a four-year-low, and outlook for global energy. Goldman Sachs analysts recently estimated that Brent oil could fall below $40 a barrel in late 2026 under "extreme" outcomes, including a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts.
4) Libby Cantrill, Managing Director: Public Policy at PIMCO, discusses the Trump administration's tariff policies and the components that are here to stay. Anxiety is growing on Wall Street that Donald Trump's actions might break the economy and key parts of the financial markets. Despite a slight easing of the US stock selloff, there are few signs of optimism, and investors are desperate for any sign of tariff relief.
5) James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst at HSBC, joins for an extended discussion on gold's record rise and whether it will be the safe haven amid tariff uncertainty. With volatility surging as $10 trillion wiped off global equities after the US unveiled sweeping tariffs last week, gold pushed higher yesterday.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Damian Sassower & Lori Calvasina.

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- Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets
- Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan Professor of Public Policy
- Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James
- Meghan Graper, Global Co-Head: Debt Capital Markets at Barclays

Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, talks about the market selloff and whether the meltdown in equities is set to continue as long as tariffs stay in place. Justin Wolfers with the University of Michigan talks about whether negotiating with other countries on tariffs would be an effective economic strategy. Ed Wills of Raymond James discusses President Trump's commitment to tariffs. Meghan Graper, Global Co-Head: Debt Capital Markets at Barclays, discusses what debt markets are telling investors about rising risks in the economy.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 7th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses her note this morning on why full recession pricing could send the S&P to 4,200. The RBC team led by Calvasina writes in note that the concern of many financial market participants seemed to rapidly swing from stagflation to recession on Thursday and Friday. They add that the value/growth ratio within the Russell 1000 has gotten close to the 2024 lows, “making us wonder whether that trade may soon get to a potential inflection point.”
2) Michael Purves, CEO at Tallbacken Capital Advisors, discusses his recent note "The Express Train to 4,800" and why he believes the S&P could fall as low as 4,000. Traders have increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, with markets pricing 125 basis points of easing by year end. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect the US economy to fall into a recession this year, with the Fed cutting interest rates in response.
3) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, talks about tariff policy, where the GOP stands on tax cuts, and how policy could change in the coming days and months. President Trump's tariff hikes increase the urgency of the Republican tax-cut package, but threaten to undermine its boost to business and consumer confidence. The tariffs could tip the economy into a downward spiral, making it tough for tax cuts and deregulation to reverse, and may lead to a recession this year.
4) Keith Lerner, Co-CIO at Truist, talks about investors being on the defensive as stocks have more room to decline. As President Trump remains defiant on tariffs, markets were set for another tough week, with US equity futures plunging Sunday, following a 10% drop in the underlying index in two days, and economists predicting a recession this year.
5) Sonali Basak, Wall Street reporter with Bloomberg News, on JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and the JPMorgan annual shareholder letter. Dimon urged a quick resolution to the uncertainties sparked by President Donald Trump's tariffs, warning against a potentially "disastrous" fragmentation of America's long-term economic alliances.

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Neil Dutta & Kate Moore.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.