Bloomberg Surveillance

Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says average hourly earnings is the most important number to pay attention to from the U.S. Employment Report because it provides insight about consumers' ability to drive consumption. Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist, says the Fed's dot plot can be confusing at times but is here to stay. Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income Team Senior Portfolio Manager, says we are heading in the direction of slow employment growth. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO U.S. Economist, says Friday's mixed jobs data coupled with disappointing ISM data suggests that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in October and could lead to more easing in December. Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, says the real economic trouble for the United States is the collapse of the European economy, not the ongoing trade war with China.

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Krishna Memani, Invesco Vice Chairman of Investments, says the U.S. economy will be able to grow at a reduced rate, despite trade tensions and manufacturing weakness, because of the momentum in the consumer and service sectors. Margaret Patel, Wells Capital Management Senior Portfolio Manager, thinks that the treasury curve is pretty much immune to short-term fluctuations in stocks. Shuli Ren, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, says U.S. investors see China as a big country with "a lot" of demand, but no supply. Dean Curnutt, Macro Risk Advisors CEO, discusses the implications of a global economic slowdown on the VIX index. 

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Luigi Zingales, University of Chicago Booth School Finance Professor, says the global slowdown is going to continue until Germany delivers a major fiscal package, which is unlikely to happen any time soon. Rosalind Mathieson, Bloomberg International Government Executive Editor, says Prime Minister Johnson will crash out if he gets a no-deal Brexit. John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer & Co. Chief Investment Strategist, thinks that the demand for equities is likely to increase. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Global Markets Chief U.S. Economist, details the current growth scare saying, “it’s harder to attribute this growth scare to something transitory.” David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder & Host of Bloomberg's Peer to Peer Conversations, reflects on his conversation with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg who reiterated her belief in incremental justice. 

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David Page, AXA Investment Managers Senior Economist U.S. & U.K., says that we are close to a tipping point in the labor market. Timothy Graf, State Street Bank Head of EMEA Macro Strategy, says the Fed is more dovish than what markets anticipate. Alessio de Longis, Invesco Investment Solutions Senior Portfolio Manager, says emerging market growth is what will lead us into a rotation trade. Meredith Sumpter, Eurasia Group Head of Research Strategy, says China is working to ease current tensions but is not interested in pursuing the kind of structural reforms that Trump and Washington say are necessary. And Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says we don't have the tools we once had to stimulate the economy. 

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Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, says China has given up on President Trump. Elizabeth Economy, CFR Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies, says the Chinese government will continue to use all the mechanisms they have at their disposal to keep the economy stable. Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director of Economic Policy Research, discusses developments in the potential trading restrictions between U.S. and Chinese companies. And Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, says the consumer remains resilient because the labor market is strong. 

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Russ Koesterich, BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager, says inflation is low. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg TV & Radio Finance Reporter, discusses what's ahead for new Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf. Lindsay Newman, Chatham House U.S. and the Americas Programme Senior Research Fellow, says the partisan divide is key in impeachment proceedings. And Jane Foley, Rabobank Head of FX Strategy, discusses Brexit's impact on how the BOE will operate as October 31st nears. 

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Ken Burns, Documentary Filmmaker, joins Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney for a discussion on his latest film, "Country Music." Burns discusses iconic Martin guitars, the modernization of the genre, and country music's role in U.S. history. 

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Marty Schenker, Bloomberg Chief Content Officer, says President Donald Trump is his own counsel. Steven Wieting, Citi Private Bank Global Chief Investment Strategist, says U.S. shares are the best performing assets. Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House Head of U.S. & Americas Programme, discusses the rationality of an impeachment inquiry. Hugo Rogers, Deltec Chief Investment Strategist, predicts a general election in the U.K. and says Boris Johnson will be the catalyst. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan Global Research Chair, says every 1% decline in China's growth is about .4% off of global growth. And Justin Sink, Bloomberg News White House Correspondent, previews the House hearing with Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire today. 

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Bill Dudley, senior research scholar at Princeton University, and former New York Fed President, discusses the benefits of Federal Reserve repo operations, a politicized Fed and his role during the 2008 financial crisis. He spoke to Bloomberg's Tom Keene. 

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Surveillance comes to you from the Bloomberg Global Business Forum today. In conversation with  International Monetary Fund Acting Managing Director David Lipton.

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