01-20-2026 Bonds are "Breaking the Habit"

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Memories consume the breaking of the wound

It’s picking bulls apart again.

The bears won Friday in Treasuries, while mortgages remained steady as they await details on GSE buying. The chatter over Fed independence is irrelevant. The Fed follows Bonds. And when they run their failed experiments, like Quantitative Easing, who holds them accountable? Only the bond market.

Expect the 10-year yield to find buyers between 4.25 and 4.35. The global questions around war, growth, and inflation remain, yet volatility measures are low.

Bonds know it's not alright. So, they’re breaking the rate range. They’re breaking their habit out right.

These views are mine. Understand breaks at TMSpotlight.

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Song: Breaking the Habit (2003) Linkin Park