BTC Sessions

Mentor Sessions EP 109: Lawrence Lepard & Mark Valek on the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Fed Trap, Gold, Silver & Bitcoin

America's debt just blew past $40 trillion, interest now costs more than the entire military budget, and yet gold and Bitcoin are both down on the year. Larry Lepard of Equity Management Associates and Mark Valek of Incrementum explain why the debasement trade stalled and what sets it off again.

In this conversation you'll learn why Valek sees a melting system against Lawrence Lepard's Big Print, why higher short-term rates trap the Fed under fiscal dominance, and which stress signals are flashing right now: European sovereign spreads, commercial real estate delinquencies, AI debt, and private equity funds gating withdrawals. You'll hear why central banks have been net gold buyers every year since 2010 and stepped up their buying after 2022, why Larry thinks Bitcoin already bottomed near $58K, Valek's case for ETF concentration risk, and the market levels both are watching going into 2027.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:08 - Melting System Vs The Big Print

4:07 - The Fed Has No Lever To Fix Inflation

8:52 - Fiat Currency Is A Religion

12:23 - Sovereign Debt Crisis And Extreme Volatility

14:23 - Europe's Credit Spreads Flash A Warning

16:39 - Cracks In AI Debt, Private Credit And Gated Funds

20:16 - They Will Always Choose To Print

23:27 - Hank Paulson's Break The Glass Warning

27:50 - The Fed And Treasury Are Trapped

30:50 - Is A New Bretton Woods Coming?

34:04 - The Money Printer Joke

37:28 - Greenspan: The Power Is Intoxicating

40:27 - Who's Selling Gold To Central Banks?

44:49 - The Third Inning Of The Sovereign Debt Bubble

47:10 - Is Europe The Next Catalyst?

54:42 - Where Bitcoin Stands After The Hacks

57:11 - Does Gold Move Before Bitcoin?

59:03 - Mark's Unpopular Take: Bitcoin ETF Concentration Risk

1:04:45 - Silver Back Below $50 Is A Gift

1:07:03 - Copper, Silver And The Commodity Squeeze

1:10:31 - When Does The Big Print Happen?

1:12:28 - Gold Can't Default

1:14:45 - What To Watch Going Into 2027

Guests: Lawrence "Larry" Lepard (Equity Management Associates, author of The Big Print) and Mark Valek (Incrementum, co-author of the In Gold We Trust report).

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Larry Lepard / EMA free quarterly letter: https://www.ema2.com

→ Follow Lawrence Lepard on X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard

→ Mark Valek / Incrementum: https://www.incrementum.li

→ In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report

→ Follow Mark on X: https://x.com/MarkValek

This is a Mentor Sessions deep-dive for the regulars. Drop your read in the comments: does the Fed print before this bubble deflates, or does the market crack first? Tell us where you're positioned.

⚡Previous Episode:

Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker: https://youtu.be/QCgW8RlTu5Q

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#SovereignDebt #LawrenceLepard #MarkValek #Gold #Bitcoin #Silver #LarryLepard #DebtCrisis #FederalReserve #AIBubble #PrivateCredit #InGoldWeTrust #TheBigPrint #MentorSessions #BTCSessions

Mentor Sessions EP 108: Brent Johnson & Keith Dicker on the Bond Market, the Dollar, Gold & the Next Money Rotation

The rest of the world owes an estimated $110 trillion in US-dollar debt they can't print, and a rising dollar is what could force the defaults. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital and Keith Dicker of IceCap Asset Management lay out why a strong dollar and higher Treasury yields can coexist, what actually causes de-dollarization, and how to position before the next liquidity shock.

In this conversation you'll learn why Johnson reads October's sharp Treasury rally as a snapback after record-short positioning, why Dicker warns the bond market peak is behind us and bonds may be a brutal long-term hold, and why a falling dollar index is actually re-dollarization, not the collapse everyone expects. You'll see why both managers treat gold as portfolio insurance that gets sold first in a crisis, why energy could become the next crowded trade if the Middle East stays hot, and how a closer Fed-Treasury 'shotgun wedding' could reshape dollar policy as great-power competition heats up. You'll walk away with a concrete way to stress-test your exposure to bonds, equities, gold bullion, and cash against a range of outcomes.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:05 - October Treasury Rally And Dollar Strength

2:33 - Is The Bond Peak A Bear Trap?

4:36 - Why Higher US Rates Are Not Catastrophic

6:35 - Defining Inflation As Rising Prices

7:13 - Rising Yields And Dollar Strength Explained

9:08 - Global Government Debt Financing Crisis

11:07 - Will Sovereign Bond Markets Force Central Bank Intervention?

13:18 - Why Global Chaos Favors The United States

15:03 - The 110 Trillion Dollar Global Debt Problem

17:01 - What Could Actually Break The Dollar System

17:46 - Dollar Index As De-Dollarization Gauge

24:23 - Gold Bitcoin And Oil Underperforming Amid Chaos

27:05 - Iran Nuclear Risk And Market Signals

33:57 - Gold As Portfolio Insurance And Core Holding

37:29 - Energy As The Next Market Euphoria Trade

39:13 - Expecting A Tech And AI Correction

42:25 - Prepare For A Crash Instead Of Waiting

47:29 - Canada US Economic Ties And Energy Exports

52:45 - The Fed Treasury Shotgun Wedding Thesis

58:06 - Will America First Survive The Next Administration?

1:02:23 - Year End Outlook Be Prepared For Everything

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Brent Johnson / Santiago Capital: https://santiagocapital.com

→ Follow Brent on X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

→ Brent Johnson on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MilkshakesPod

→ TransAtlantic TakeAway (Brent Johnson & John Butler): https://www.transatlantictakeaway.com

→ Keith Dicker / IceCap Asset Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com

→ Follow IceCap on X: https://x.com/IceCapGlobal

→ The Loonie Hour (Keith Dicker): https://www.looniehour.ca

⚡Previous Episode:

Brandon Quittem & Walker America: https://youtu.be/Lci53xJgAFw

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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#BondMarket #BrentJohnson #KeithDicker #MentorSessions #BTCSessions #Bitcoin #SovereignDebt #TreasuryYields #USDollar #DollarMilkshake #DeDollarization #GlobalDebt #FederalReserve #InterestRates #StockMarketCrash #MarketCorrection #EnergyStocks #SectorRotation #GoldInvesting #SantiagoCapital #IceCapAssetManagement #MarketVolatility

Mentor Sessions EP 107: Brandon Quittem & Walker America on the Convergence of Historic Cycles

History has only lined up like this twice in 300 years: 1776 and 1914. Walker America tracked 12 major historical cycles and found that in both eras nearly all of them turned at once. Today, 7 of 12 have turned, and the count is climbing.

Brandon Quittem and Walker break down where we really sit in the Fourth Turning, why every Fourth Turning in American history has ended in war, how the long term debt cycle points to a soft default on the dollar, and what the rise and fall of empires tells us about the years ahead. They also dig into generational amnesia, the strongman phase, the Gray Champion, and whether Bitcoin and AI make this time genuinely different.

Brandon makes the case for Bitcoin as a pressure release valve on a system under strain. They close with practical steps to prepare: managing debt, protecting savings, building community, and staying high agency through turbulent years.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:04 - Where Are We In The Fourth Turning?

1:38 - The Fourth Turning Explained

5:21 - Every Fourth Turning Has Ended In War

6:06 - The Economic And Tech Cold War

7:47 - Walker's Super Cycle Theory

11:17 - History Has Only Lined Up Like This Twice

12:11 - Ordinary Families Pay First

15:25 - Bitcoin And AI: Is This Time Different?

19:57 - The Long Term Debt Cycle And Soft Default

21:48 - Why This Time Is Not Different

25:04 - How Generations Repeat The Cycle

40:56 - Polybius And The Cycle Of Governments

46:07 - Generational Amnesia

50:06 - The Strongman Phase: El Salvador

51:33 - The Gray Champion And Republic Renewal

56:57 - What Could Disrupt The Cycles

57:40 - Bitcoin As A Pressure Release Valve

1:08:02 - Which Cycles Have Turned And What's Next

1:19:12 - How To Prepare: Wealth, Debt, Income

1:21:50 - Build Your Community

1:27:33 - The Astrological Cycles

🔗 Guests:

Brandon Quittem on X: https://x.com/Bquittem

Brandon's essays: https://brandonquittem.com

Walker America on X: https://x.com/WalkerAmerica

⚡Previous Episode:

Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry: https://youtu.be/JzY9L3vQdt4

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#FourthTurning #Bitcoin #SuperCycleTheory #NeilHowe #StraussHowe #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #HistoryRepeats #Cycles #Macro #DebtCycle #Dollar #AI #Anacyclosis #Polybius #Prepare #BrandonQuittem #WalkerAmerica

Mentor Sessions EP 106: Broken Country Filmmakers Mira Metter & Mike Werry on Canada's Collapse, Healthcare, Housing, Taxes and Government Control

Canada used to be the envy of the world. Now people are asking whether they can survive here, let alone raise a family. Mira Metter and Mike Werry, the director and producer of the documentary Broken Country, spent months traveling the country to find out what broke and when. Their verdict a year later: not one thing they covered in the film has gotten better.

They break down why Canadian hospitals run at 100 to 120% occupancy when 80% is considered safe, why roughly 20% of Canadians have no family doctor, and how a country of 40 million ended up with fewer MRI machines than Pennsylvania. On housing, prices have climbed about 375% in 20 years, going from roughly 2.5 times annual income in the '90s to 9 times nationally and 19 times in Toronto and Vancouver.

We also get into rising taxes, immigration policy, censorship bills and cameras turned off in Parliament, the federal government's own 2040 social mobility scenario, Alberta and Quebec separatism, and why this is a warning for Americans watching the same policies at home.

Chapters:

0:00 - Intro

0:52 - Canada From Envy Of The World To Survival

3:33 - What's Wrong With Canadian Healthcare

4:00 - Hospitals Running At 100-120% Capacity

5:29 - 20% Of Canadians Have No Family Doctor

6:42 - Fewer MRI Machines Than Pennsylvania

7:20 - Hospitals Funded On Last Year's Patients

10:03 - Healthcare Worked Until The Early 90s Cuts

12:37 - Canada's Hidden Two-Tier Healthcare

15:43 - Rural ER Closures Costing Lives

20:31 - Can Canadian Healthcare Be Saved

24:08 - ER Doctors Abused And Burned Out

26:12 - Addiction, Homelessness And Housing

27:03 - Housing From 2.5x To 19x Income

27:55 - Housing Up 375% In 20 Years

29:03 - How Housing Got Dumped On Cities

31:01 - Rent Eating Half Your Paycheck

33:49 - The Five-Year Mortgage Renewal Shock

35:12 - The Money Printing Behind It All

43:20 - Can Housing Ever Correct Without Breaking The Banks

48:01 - How Canada's Government Failed

49:36 - Safe Supply And The Opioid Crisis

52:30 - Censorship Bills And Cameras Off In Parliament

55:43 - Government-Subsidized Media

58:31 - Bill C-22 And Digital Privacy

1:01:38 - The 2015 Immigration Shift

1:06:54 - Youth Unemployment And Temporary Foreign Workers

1:09:55 - Entrepreneurs Leaving For The US

1:11:31 - Wasted Resources: Ring Of Fire, LNG, Hydro

1:17:10 - Walking Away From The US Trade Deal

1:19:46 - Does It Get Worse Before It Gets Better

1:20:52 - The Government's Own 2040 Warning

1:22:39 - Alberta And Quebec Separatism

1:25:52 - A Wake-Up Call For Americans

1:26:50 - Not One Thing Has Gotten Better

1:28:45 - Where To Watch Broken Country

⚡ Watch Broken Country: https://brokencountry.com

⚡Previous Episode:

Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin: https://youtu.be/GYyHcPEaS3Y

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

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🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#BrokenCountry #Canada #CanadaCollapse #CanadaHousingCrisis #CanadianEconomy #CanadaHealthcare #CostOfLiving #ImmigrationPolicy #GovernmentOverreach #FailedState #AlbertaSeparation #MiraMetter #MikeWerry #MentorSessions #BTCSessions

Mentor Sessions EP 105 | Max Hillebrand & Ben Perrin on GrapheneOS, White Noise, Local AI, KYC-Free Bitcoin and Privacy Guerrilla Warfare

If you click next, next, next on mainstream tech, your privacy is fucked. But Max Hillebrand (White Noise, Marmot protocol, author of The Praxeology of Privacy) and Ben Perrin (BTC Sessions, Sovereign Sessions) argue the tools to route around surveillance have never been better. With an old laptop, an AI agent, Nostr and Zapstore, you can now build and ship a freedom tech app without knowing how to code.

From there, they walk through a practical privacy stack: Pixel phones running GrapheneOS (8, 9 or 10, not the 11), Linux laptops, password managers, paying privately with gift cards and prepaid cards, Wasabi Wallet and peer-to-peer Bitcoin, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise for encrypted messaging, local AI and trusted execution environments, self-hosting on an old laptop, quantum risk to encryption, and why privacy matters for honest price discovery.

Timestamps:

0:00 Cold Open

0:41 Privacy Guerrilla Warfare: Can We Route Around the Grid?

2:37 Build an Anonymous App Without Coding

6:19 Why Your Data Is So Valuable

7:38 Google Maps and Your Location Data

9:40 GrapheneOS, Organic Maps and Linux

10:53 Is the Privacy UX Gap Closing?

15:23 Moving the Cultural Needle on Privacy

20:12 Starting a Private Device Setup

24:46 OS-Level ID Verification

25:41 Best Pixels for GrapheneOS: 8, 9, 10, Not the 11

27:05 Linux Laptops and Operating Systems

28:54 Face Scan vs PIN

30:27 Passwords and Password Managers

32:19 Paying Privately With Gift Cards and Prepaid Cards

35:07 Spending Bitcoin Through Friends

37:13 Wasabi Wallet and On-Chain Privacy

38:21 Getting Bitcoin Without KYC

41:38 Zapstore, Tor VPN, Amber and White Noise

48:00 How the Marmot Protocol Works

55:52 How Disappearing Messages Work

57:57 Private AI and Running Local Models

1:01:29 Talking to Your AI Agents Through White Noise

1:07:37 Private Cloud AI With Maple and PPQ

1:08:43 Trusted Execution Environments: Cypherpunk Magic

1:14:35 Self-Host Your Data on an Old Laptop

1:17:14 Is Quantum a Threat to Encryption and Bitcoin?

1:25:09 The Economic Case for Privacy

1:29:00 Ben's Blond Streak Disguise

1:29:55 Where to Find Max, Ben and White Noise

Tools mentioned: GrapheneOS, Organic Maps, Debian, Qubes OS, Pop!_OS, Omarchy, Framework, Apple Lockdown Mode, KeePass, Silent.Link, Bitrefill, Coincards, Garmin Pay, Wasabi Wallet, Lightning, Hodl Hodl, Bisq, RoboSats, Zapstore, Tor VPN, Obscura VPN, Amber, White Noise, Marmot protocol, MLS, Nostr, Nostr VPN, FIPS, Routstr, Cashu, Fedimint, Bionic, Maple, PPQ.ai

Max Hillebrand (Nostr only): https://towardsliberty.com

White Noise: https://whitenoise.chat

Sovereign Sessions (tutorials): https://youtube.com/@SovereignSessions

⚡Previous Episode:

Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon: https://youtu.be/djc-F6TPfos

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN

https://qrco.de/bfiDC6

💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#BitcoinPrivacy #GrapheneOS #Nostr #MaxHillebrand #BenPerrin #WhiteNoise #WasabiWallet #LocalAI #SelfHosting #FreedomTech #Cypherpunk #Bitcoin #BTCSessions #Privacy #Zapstore

Mentor Sessions EP 104 | Jim Rickards & Simon Dixon on the petrodollar, who runs the world, the AI bubble, dollar collapse, gold vs Bitcoin, stablecoin bank runs and frozen bank accounts.

Two wars, a quiet Russian diesel deal, and a $2 trillion AI build-out that one of these guests calls the greatest bubble in history. James Rickards and Simon Dixon sit down to map who is actually calling the shots in the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, and what it means for the dollar, gold, and your Bitcoin.

Rickards war gamed finance as a weapon for the Pentagon, advised the CIA on financial threats, and was general counsel at Long Term Capital Management when the Fed stepped in. In this conversation you'll learn why he argues the debasement trade is nonsense and the dollar is getting stronger, why China's yuan can't become a reserve currency, and why he believes an unregulated stablecoin bank run could trigger a panic in the Treasury market.

Simon Dixon pushes back with the view that war is the product, that the petrodollar is being quietly renegotiated as China becomes Saudi Arabia's main oil buyer, and that both gold and Bitcoin matter in the programmable control grid he sees coming. You'll also hear a sharp breakdown of the AI bubble, why superintelligence won't be achieved, and the latest supply-chain attacks on hardware wallets.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:33 - Who Is Calling The Shots In These Wars

2:33 - Who Really Controls Ukraine's Leadership

3:38 - Why Iran Has No Exit Strategy

6:46 - US-Russia Deal That Could End Two Wars

9:25 - Why Only China Russia And US Matter

12:16 - Simon Dixon: War Serves The Power Structure

15:13 - Midterms Weapons Shortages And Trump Agenda

18:46 - Seventy Years Of Petrodollar Monetary History

23:47 - Bigger Picture Above Trump And World Orders

26:19 - Why The Debasement Trade Is Nonsense

29:05 - China's Gold Reserves And Yuan Limitations

32:08 - Using Inflation To Solve The Debt Problem

33:09 - Petrodollar Shift From Saudi Arabia To China

49:26 - Two Trillion Dollar AI Infrastructure Bubble

55:42 - Why Superintelligence Cannot Be Achieved

56:11 - Ice-Nine Freezing Accounts And Redemptions

1:00:06 - Rickards Bitcoin Casino Chip Metaphor Explained

1:01:08 - Stablecoin Bank Run Risks On The Horizon

1:03:55 - Simon Dixon Stablecoins Versus Bank Deposits

1:26:48 - Hardware Wallet Attacks Targeting Self Custody

1:31:49 - Simon Dixon New Book Game Of Money

🔗 Links & Resources:

James Rickards newsletter - https://rickardswarning.com

Simon Dixon on X - https://x.com/SimonDixonTwit

This one is for the people trying to make sense of the whole board at once, not just the headlines. If that's you, join us live for the next Mentor Session and drop your take on war-is-the-product vs the-dollar-is-fine in the comments. We read them.

⚡Previous Episode:

Michael Howell: https://youtu.be/Tzyifqs-Bg0

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #JamesRickards #SimonDixon #Petrodollar #DollarCollapse #AIBubble #Stablecoins #CBDC #Gold #GoldVsBitcoin #DeDollarization #IranWar #Geopolitics #SelfCustody #BTCSessions

Mentor Sessions EP 103: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, the Everything Bubble & When Bitcoin Rallies

Global liquidity is still rising in absolute terms, but the momentum is cracking fast, and that shift is already bending bond markets, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. Michael Howell breaks down exactly what's moving underneath the surface.

In this episode you'll see why Howell calls Bitcoin a "liquidity sponge," how the debt maturity wall forces old debt back into the system, and why roughly 80% of all financial market transactions are really just debt refinancing. You'll learn how to read the four indicators Howell watches before every crisis, why the euro system has no safe asset, how Japan quietly devalued its debt through a weaker yen, and why China is "basically Japan ten years later" buying gold for 23 straight months. You'll also hear his specific call: Bitcoin may struggle for three months, then do quite well into 2027 as Treasury QE monetizes government spending.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

1:06 - Is Global Liquidity Expanding Or Contracting?

2:33 - Momentum Indicator Signals Liquidity Rollover

3:25 - Why This Is a 5-6 Year Debt Refinancing Cycle

4:28 - The Debt Maturity Wall Explained

5:59 - Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio And Crisis Thresholds

7:20 - Where Liquidity Shifted: CapEx And AI Data Centers

8:54 - Treasury QE: The New Hidden Liquidity Conduit

12:54 - Fed September Hike And Liquidity Management

13:17 - Why 80% Of Lending Is Collateral Backed

14:12 - MOVE Index And Rising Bond Volatility Risk

15:42 - Bessent Buybacks Targeting Off-The-Run Treasuries

16:26 - Fed Managing Repo Spreads And Bank Reserves

17:30 - What The Repo Market Actually Is

20:05 - SOFR Spreads And The Danger Line

24:20 - What Really Drives The MOVE Index Higher

25:49 - Are We Heading Into A Financial Crisis?

26:53 - Two-Year Yields vs SOFR: Rates Rising

29:24 - Where Interest Rates Could Peak

33:25 - Bitcoin As A Liquidity Sponge: The Framework

34:17 - Howell's Medium-Term Bitcoin Bull Case

35:43 - Yield Curve Signals And Bitcoin Bull Market Timing

40:38 - The Eurodollar Market And Gilts

42:36 - France, Germany And The Oat-Bund Spread

43:29 - No Safe Asset In The Euro System

45:26 - Why The Eurozone May Not Hold Together

47:18 - Japan, The Yen Carry Trade And Weaker Yen

49:30 - How Japan Devalued Its Debt Successfully

51:39 - China Is Japan Ten Years Later

53:07 - China Printing Money And Buying Gold To Devalue

56:16 - Could The US Engineer A Domestic Devaluation?

58:25 - How Bitcoin Reacts To Chinese And Treasury Liquidity

1:02:04 - Final Thoughts On AI, Private Credit And Risk

Michael Howell runs Global Liquidity Indexes and publishes the Capital Wars Substack, where he tracks global liquidity data and the indicators referenced throughout this conversation.

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Michael Howell on X: https://x.com/crossbordercap

→ Michael Howell on Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

→ GL Indexes: https://www.glindexes.com/

⚡Previous Episode:Rational Root: https://youtu.be/ZkpoEFOQ_cM

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #GlobalLiquidity #EverythingBubble #MichaelHowell #BTCSessions #MentorSessions #FinancialCrisis #BitcoinMacro #TreasuryQE #DebtCycle #CapitalWars #BondMarket #YieldCurve #LiquiditySponge #Liquidity

Mentor Sessions Ep 102: Rational Root breaks down Bitcoin on-chain data, the 2026 cycle bottom, ETF cost basis, the four year cycle and his macro outlook.

The Bitcoin bottom looks like it's already in, and the on-chain data says this was the least retail driven cycle in history. Rational Root joins the show with a stack of charts to explain exactly why price held at $60K through the Cold Card hack, the chain split, and the biggest ETF outflows ever recorded.

You'll see how the short-term holder cost basis breakout flipped the market bullish, why the ETF cost basis rejected price twice before the breakout, and how the four year spiral chart is behaving at this bottom compared to every prior cycle. You'll learn why Rational Root bought STRC at a 25% discount during the panic, what the digital credit stress test revealed, and why he thinks an all-time high could land before June 2027. You'll also get his candid macro read on AI, ISM manufacturing, interest rates, and the midterm cycle, plus why diminishing returns are likely moving forward even as the cycle keeps chugging along.

This is a practical, data-first conversation for holders trying to decide whether to keep stacking or wait for a lower low that may never come.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:36 - Meet Rational Root and What's Top Of Mind

1:27 - Price Action And The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Breakout

3:21 - Why This Bottom Looks Like Every Prior Cycle

5:05 - Why We Never Got The Blow-Off Top This Cycle

8:19 - The Momentum Indicator And Mild Capitulation Explained

9:04 - How Institutional Buyers Dampened The Drawdown

11:24 - The Four Year Spiral Chart And Diminishing Returns

13:04 - Will The Spiral Chart Eventually Break?

18:05 - The ETF Cost Basis And The Second Leg Up

20:56 - ETF Inflows, Outflows And The Digital Credit Stress Test

22:39 - The On-Chain Value Map And Fair Value

25:57 - Buying STRC At A 25% Discount During The Panic

28:07 - Cold Card Hack, Chain Split And Price That Wouldn't Break

31:22 - How Fast Can The Recovery Come From Here?

33:54 - An All-Time High Before June 2027?

39:11 - Macro: ISM, The Business Cycle And Midterms

45:52 - AI, Fiat And Why Bitcoin Still Matters More

52:42 - What Gave Rational Root Pause This Cycle

55:04 - How He Actually Feels About Bitcoin Right Now

1:00:31 - Where To Find Rational Root's Charts

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Follow Rational Root on X: https://x.com/therationalroot

→ Rational Root Newsletter & Charts: https://www.bitcoinstrategyplatform.com/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

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#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCSessions #OnChainAnalysis #BitcoinCycle #FourYearCycle #RationalRoot #BitcoinBottom #BitcoinETF #ShortTermHolder #SpiralChart #BitcoinMacro #DiminishingReturns #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AllTimeHigh #Bitcoin2027 #BitcoinPrediction

Mentor Sessions Ep 101: Joe Carlasare, Dr. Jeff Ross, and American HODL break down why Bitcoin at $85K is poised to break $100K, the dead four year cycle, and AI's economic impact in 2026.

Nation states now hold more Bitcoin on a percentage basis than individuals do, and Joe Carlasare and Jeff argue that single fact rewrites the entire bull case heading into 2026. With Bitcoin sitting around $85,000, this conversation makes the case that $100K is the starting bell, not the ceiling.

You'll learn why Carlasare calls the recent sell-off a self-fulfilling prophecy, why both guests believe the traditional four year cycle is finally dead, and how the walk from $100K to $1 million could happen faster and easier than most holders expect. You'll hear why long-term hodlers above $100K are already gone, why the Cold Card capitulation felt like the real bottom, and how liquidity, manufacturing, and speculation (the "three burners") tell the macro story right now. You'll also get a frank breakdown of AI's economic impact, the fight over compute governance, the IP and legal battles facing OpenAI and Anthropic, and the FinCEN rules on self-hosted wallets that were just rescinded.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:40 - Calling The Bottom At $58K And Where Bitcoin Sits Now

1:17 - P(Doom) Zero, P(BTC) 100

2:34 - Nation States Own More Bitcoin Than Individuals

3:23 - The Entire Sell-Off Was A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

4:36 - Why Flipping Green In 2026 Breaks The Four Year Cycle

6:44 - The Cold Card Capitulation And The Double Bottom

8:19 - Covid Distorted Every Economic Cycle

11:03 - Bitcoin Trades On Macro Now, Not The Cycle

13:14 - Junk Bonds At 14% And Broken Correlations

14:25 - Only 2.5% From A Green Year, 20% From $100K

15:30 - Why $100K Unlocks $200K, $300K, $400K

16:17 - The Walk From $100K To $1 Million

24:01 - The Michael Saylor Prophecy And Follow-On Buyers

27:31 - James Check: There's No Narrative, Just Demand

30:08 - Strategy Survived The Stress Test

34:26 - Is The Equity Market Over Its Skis?

38:19 - Creative Destruction And The AI Economy

40:35 - HODL On The AI Red Capture And Robo-God Labs

45:25 - Effective Altruism, The Vatican, And Compute Governance

47:33 - The Coming AI False Flag

52:47 - Can You Make AI Labs Legally Liable?

55:41 - Do Local Models Beat The Frontier?

1:00:41 - Will Wall Street Shred OpenAI And Anthropic?

1:01:02 - China, Manufacturing, And The IP Problem

1:03:13 - Is AI Output Fair Use? Courts Say No

1:06:35 - FinCEN's Self-Custody Rules Rescinded

1:07:19 - The Three Burners: Liquidity, Manufacturing, Speculation

1:13:48 - What FinCEN Actually Changed

1:15:15 - Joe's New Book And Closing Thoughts

This episode references the Cold Card incident, Michael Howell's liquidity work, Lyn Alden's fiscal framing, and Joe Carlasare's new book. Hardware wallet and self-custody tools discussed in the sponsor segments include Trezor and Casa multisig.

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ Follow Joe Carlasare on X: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare

→ Follow Jeff Ross on X: https://x.com/FormerDrJeff

→ Follow HODL on X: https://x.com/americanhodl8

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

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👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTCSessions #JoeCarlasare #JeffRoss #AmericanHODL #BTC #BitcoinMacro #FourYearCycle #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinBullMarket #AIandBitcoin #BitcoinTo1Million #NationStateBitcoin #SelfCustody #FinCEN

Mentor Sessions Episode 100: James Check breaks down Bitcoin market cycles, on-chain data, the bull market transition, and his end-of-year $100K price target for 2026

Bitcoin just flipped from bear to bull and the on-chain data proves it: more than half of all invested wealth is now in profit, up from just 8% at the $58K lows. James Check returns to break down exactly what changed and where the cycle goes next.

You'll learn why James called the bottom back in July and what the run from the low $60s to $86K revealed on-chain. You'll see his four-phase market cycle model, how short-term and long-term holder cost basis acts as resistance, and why 90% of ETF buyers were underwater before $8 billion in outflows hit the bottom. You'll also hear his honest end-of-year outlook, his left/mid/right curve scenarios, and why he believes dips will most likely be bought from here.

This is a measured, data-first conversation for anyone navigating the transition out of a bear market without getting chopped up.

⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro

0:42 - Confirming the Bull Market

1:24 - On-Chain Data Reveals Human Emotion

1:36 - Price Pain Versus Time Pain Capitulation

2:13 - Macro Trends Begin on One-Second Charts

3:13 - Two Legs Up and Short Squeezes

4:27 - Wealth in Profit Jumps From 8% to 55%

5:27 - Bear Market PTSD and Transition

6:25 - Will Old Buyers Sell at Break-Even?

7:22 - Who Bought Bitcoin at $64K?

8:04 - Four Seasons of Holder Behavior

9:39 - Volume Rising Across Exchanges

10:24 - Anything Missed in the Bear Market?

11:42 - ETFs Bought Tops and Sold Bottoms

13:07 - How 20% of Coins Drive 55% Drawdowns

15:11 - What a True Catastrophic Event Looks Like

15:48 - $100K Resistance and Silent IPO

18:09 - Why the Next All-Time High Feels Special

19:46 - Low-Fee ETF Flows Gaining Traction

21:19 - Why Companies Avoid Bitcoin on Balance Sheets

23:01 - Housing Markets Push Rotation Into Bitcoin

24:00 - Bitcoin Is Not Set and Forget

28:18 - Personal Signals Confirming the Bottom

30:40 - Testing Fear Versus Greed Titles

31:04 - Why Brains Are Wired to Lose Money

32:57 - Is the DCA Strategy Still Active?

33:46 - Maxing Purchases at $60K

40:40 - Bull Market Lines of Defense

44:34 - Tracking the Hot Ball of Money

53:47 - AI CapEx Compared to Bitcoin Mining

59:48 - End-of-Year Price Targets Left Mid Right

1:02:47 - Disbelief Rally Remains Alive and Well

🔗 Links & Resources:

→ James Check's newsletter & Checkonchain charts: https://checkonchain.com

→ James X.com: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_

🔔 Subscribe for weekly Bitcoin Podcasts

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/BTCSessions

🐦 Follow on X: https://x.com/theBTCmentor

⚡Casa MultiSig & Inheritance: https://casa.io/sessions

10% Off First Year Promo Code SESSIONS

⚡ Sponsored by Trezor - Get Your Safe 7 Today: https://affil.trezor.io/aff_c?offer_id=352&aff_id=1088

⚡ POWERED by Abundant Mines: Fully managed Bitcoin mining. Learn more at https://qrco.de/bgYKPB

⚡ Sponsored by BITCOIN WELL: Best Place to BUY & SELL BITCOIN

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💡BOOK Private Sessions with Nathan, Ben and the BTC Mentor Team: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more.

👉 Visit btcmentor.io

#Bitcoin #BTC #Bitcoin100K #BTCSessions #JamesCheck #Checkonchain #OnChainData #BitcoinMarketCycle #BitcoinBullMarket #BullMarket #BearMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BitcoinPrice #BitcoinETF #CostBasis #SelfCustody #Glassnode