The Bitcoin Frontier

In this episode, we sit down with Rational Root to explore whether bitcoin is on the verge of entering a parabolic growth phase. We discuss key indicators, including on-chain data, market cycles, and global liquidity trends, to assess the current state of bitcoin and its potential for rapid price acceleration. Root breaks down the importance of short-term holder behavior, ETF flows, and the psychology of the market. We also consider external factors, such as macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments, that could fuel or hinder bitcoin's next major move.

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TIMESTAMPS:

01:40 Where are we in the 4 year cycle?

04:55 Bitcoin goes sideways or down a majority of the time

08:14 Cycles from the bottom

13:03 On-chain value map

21:21 Do ETFs change on-chain analytics?

24:00 Psychology of a bitcoin market cycle

26:23 Global liquidity catalyst

30:14 Short-term holder supply

34:38 Bitcoin ETF flows

43:30 Bitcoin ETF cost basis

45:55 Bitwise proof of reserves

49:40 HODL Model update

1:01:40 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

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→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Rational Root’s Twitter: https://x.com/therationalroot

In this episode, former FBI agent Ren McEachern breaks down financial crime and fraud in the digital age. We cover how criminals use different monetary tools for money laundering, whether the FBI can reverse wire transfers, and their work on the dark web. Ren explains asset seizures, including high-value items like yachts, and the unique challenges of seizing and liquidating bitcoin. We also discuss the FBI’s evolving stance on bitcoin, tracing crypto transactions, and using off-chain data to prevent fraud. Lastly, we tackle the potentially fraudulent NFT market, and Ren shares what he sees as the biggest risk to bitcoin today.

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TIMESTAMPS:

01:30 Introduction and Background

06:00 Most common monetary tool used in money laundering?

09:08 Can the FBI reverse wire transfers?

12:48 FBI and the dark web

15:12 Brazil banning X.com

17:15 Seizing assets and chasing yachts

21:55 Liquidating seized assets and yachts

24:00 The difficulty of seizing bitcoin

29:00 Government seizure of bitcoin and liquidation

37:00 Trump’s strategic bitcoin stockpile

40:00 The FBI's perspective on bitcoin

50:10 Future of fraud with bitcoin and crypto?

01:01:25 Is the NFT market just money laundering?

01:04:30 Most commonly used crypto for fraud?

01:08:13 Biggest risk to bitcoin?

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Ren McEachern’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/george-ren-mceachern

In this episode, Joe Consorti joins us to explore the impacts of trillion-dollar deficits on the fiscal landscape and what it means for bitcoin’s future. We start with a look at the current liquidity environment and how asset prices are responding, followed by a discussion on rate cuts and capital deployment strategies. Joe shares his outlook on bitcoin’s trajectory through 2025 and the central bank actions we should be keeping a close eye on. We then examine key models like the power law and stock-to-flow to understand how they relate to bitcoin’s growth. Joe also addresses whether excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus could harm bitcoin, and why crypto is in decline while bitcoin continues to thrive. Finally, we talk about the acceleration of exponential growth, before wrapping up with Joe’s thoughts on unpopular beliefs and the biggest risks facing bitcoin today.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
01:30 Trillion-dollar deficits and the fiscal situation
10:43 The liquidity spigot and asset prices
17:21 Rate cuts and capital deployment
25:35 Bitcoin's future and monitoring central bank actions
30:35 Predicting bitcoin in 2025 and factors to watch
37:12 The power law model vs. the stock-to-flow model
40:05 Does too much monetary and fiscal stimulus harm bitcoin?
46:50 The decline of crypto and the thriving of bitcoin
51:00 Acceleration and exponential growth
01:02:20 Unpopular beliefs and the biggest risks to bitcoin

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:
→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom
→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 
→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 
→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital
→ Joe Consorti’s Twitter: https://x.com/JoeConsorti

In this episode, Dylan LeClair joins us to discuss positive feedback loops around bitcoin’s extreme volatility and a collapsing crypto industry. We kick off with Vitalik's questions about the sustainability of yield in the crypto space and whether ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are at risk of fading away. Dylan offers his insights on the VIX spike in early August and what it might mean for the broader market. We then shift to the success of bitcoin ETFs and dive into how companies like Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are using financial engineering to increase their bitcoin holdings per share. Dylan shares his thoughts on the concept of corporate "bitcoin yield" versus holding bitcoin in cold storage, and how volatility can create a highly positive feedback loop. We also touch on the power law and S2F models, rounding off with a personal note as Dylan reflects on his high school teachers congratulating him on his success.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:50 Vitalik questioning where the yield comes from

00:04:07 Are crypto and ethereum dying?

00:08:03 Vix spike in early August—bottom for risk assets?

00:14:34 Success of bitcoin ETFs

00:17:30 Metaplanet and Microstrategy financial engineering more bitcoin

00:33:42 Bitcoin “yield” or bitcoin per share?

00:36:58 Metaplanet and MSTR vs cold storage bitcoin

00:43:00 Volatility results in a positive feedback loop

00:54:13 Power law and S2F model

00:56:45 Dylan’s high school teachers

00:59:35 What’s something you believe that most bitcoiners would disagree with?

01:04:29 What’s the biggest risk to bitcoin?

01:08:15 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Dylan LeClair’s Twitter: https://x.com/DylanLeClair_

In this episode, Sean Buckley, former professional baseball player and scout, shares his journey from college baseball to being drafted by the Cincinnati Reds. He reflects on the challenges of transitioning from the minors to the majors and the mental toll of playing the game at a high level. Sean discusses his shift from player to scout, offering insights into player dynamics, scouting's impact on his view of baseball, and how it influenced his approach to investing. He explores the parallels between identifying value in baseball and in markets, particularly bitcoin. Sean also touches on the difficulties of generating market alpha, the reasons behind his interest in capital allocation, and how he introduced the concept of bitcoin to other players.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:17 Sean’s intro into college baseball and MLB draft

00:03:00 How did you get started with baseball?

00:03:58 Ever feel burnt out playing too much baseball?

00:05:40 What was Sean’s college major?

00:07:49 Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds

00:10:55 Did you think you could be one of the best players?

00:12:35 Minors vs majors—big difference?

00:14:39 Transitioning from player to scout

00:18:39 Player dynamics and drama

00:20:38 Did scouting change your perspective on baseball?

00:23:05 Investing vs scouting

00:24:57 Has identifying value become more difficult?

00:26:55 When did you get interested in capital allocation and bitcoin?

00:33:16 Generating market alpha—why bitcoin?

00:38:00 Did you tell players about bitcoin?

00:40:22 Did other minor league players buy gold and single family homes?

00:42:10 What’s the catalyst for players to get interested in bitcoin?

00:44:19 What is the player’s union?

00:45:41 Should the union do anything about bitcoin and personal finance?

00:47:45 Retiring after professional sports

00:50:58 What podcast or books do you recommend?

00:53:30 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Sean Buckley’s Twitter: https://x.com/seancbuckley

In this episode, Nazar Khan, COO of Terawulf, discusses his entry into power and bitcoin mining, weighing the importance of inexpensive energy versus more efficient machines. He shares his thoughts on the growth of mining capacity, the competition between AI and mining for power, and the possibility of utilities acquiring bitcoin miners. Nazar also explores Terawulf's dual exposure to AI and mining, strategies for managing bitcoin's volatility, and the challenges of operating in a hyper competitive market. He addresses the impact of miners on bitcoin's price, potential international expansion plans, and whether mining could lead to lower consumer electricity prices. The episode wraps up with Nazar's views on mining's natural decentralization, a contrarian belief he holds, and the biggest risks facing bitcoin today.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:17 Nazar’s into to power and mining

00:06:51 More energy or better machines?

00:08:32 Was bitcoin mining intuitive to you at first?

00:13:08 8 GWs added over the last few years, what about the next 4 years?

00:15:00 Do AI and mining compete for power?

00:22:37 Will utilities acquire bitcoin miners?

00:25:27 WULF—AI vs mining exposure

00:28:03 Mining through the volatility

00:30:14 Is mining a brutally competitive market?

00:34:00 Most difficult part about operating a bitcoin mine?

00:35:15 Do miners affect the price of bitcoin?

00:36:59 Is WULF US only? When international mining?

00:40:47 Magnitude of mining power

00:42:00 Is global energy production about to explode?

00:48:56 Does mining lead to lower consumer electricity prices?

00:56:30 Does mining naturally decentralize to low cost power?

00:56:55 What’s something you believe that most bitcoiner’s disagree with?

00:59:12 What’s the biggest risk to bitcoin?

00:59:36 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

In this episode, Alyse Killeen discusses bitcoin's presence at the Bloomberg Invest Summit and its connection to AI, including insights from Jeff Booth’s thesis. She examines the positive feedback loop between AI and the Lightning Network, comparing it to other bitcoin Layer 2 solutions. Alyse also touches on Fold’s SPAC, her motivation for founding Stillmark, and the regulatory challenges facing bitcoin and bitcoin startups. She shares her thoughts on educating politicians about bitcoin, the future of Taproot assets, and how startups should navigate bitcoin’s volatility. The episode concludes with a discussion on the most underrated bitcoin products and how to balance between holding bitcoin and investing in bitcoin startups.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:43 Bitcoin at the Bloomberg Invest Summit

00:05:45 Bitcoin, LLMs, and generative AI

00:08:04 Jeff Booth thesis + AI

00:11:26 AI and Lightning positive feedback loop

00:15:58 Lightning vs other bitcoin L2s

00:19:20 Fold’s SPAC and bitcoin VC

00:21:15 Why did you found Stillmark?

00:23:49 Regulatory hurdles for bitcoin or bitcoin startups?

00:28:27 Educating politicians on bitcoin vs crypto

00:30:55 What’s the biggest challenge for bitcoin startups?

00:33:29 Taproot assets

00:36:51 Credit cards vs Lightning decades from now

00:39:59 Should bitcoin startups operate differently because of bitcoin volatility?

00:42:07 Most underrated bitcoin product or service

00:47:28 Holding bitcoin vs investing in bitcoin startups

00:56:23 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Alyse Killen’s Twitter: https://x.com/AlyseKilleen

In this episode, James Lavish discusses the potential of bitcoin against the current fragile financial system. He starts by explaining why bitcoin is short the current world and long a new world. James examines how weak leadership can create challenging times and its impact on financial cycles. He explores the next wave of institutional adoption and whether Wall Street still laughs at bitcoin. Emphasizing the need for critical thinking, James questions if excessive economic stimulus actually slows bitcoin adoption. He speculates on bitcoin's potential value, considering $10 trillion, $100 trillion, or $1,000 trillion scenarios. The episode also covers how long he thinks the market can fall and analyzes the national debt, and what it means for America and bitcoin.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Intro
00:01:10 Bitcoin—short the current world and long a new one
00:05:00 Weak men create hard times
00:06:34 Institutional cycle—next wave of adoption?
00:15:39 Does Wall Street still laugh at bitcoin?
00:20:15 Bitcoin requires critical thinking
00:29:38 Does extreme stimulus actually slow bitcoin adoption?
00:34:30 What’s the endgame for bitcoin? $10T, $100T, $1,000T+?
00:37:50 How long will this market crash last?
00:39:35 National debt–something is wrong, but what?
00:46:43 Will the transition from a fiat standard to bitcoin standard be smooth?
00:48:29 What’s something you believe that most bitcoiners would disagree with?
00:50:20 What is the biggest risk to bitcoin?
00:52:25 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:
→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom
→ Unchained LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 
→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 
→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital
→ Caitlin Long’s Twitter: https://x.com/jameslavish

In this episode, Caitlin Long analyzes bitcoin businesses under the Biden Administration. She begins with her reasons for building Custodia and the importance of opening banking to all industries. Caitlin critiques the SEC's recent court losses and explores Custodia's efforts to obtain a master account at the Federal Reserve, contrasting Custodia's approach with the Federal Reserve's stance. The discussion moves to Operation Choke Point 2.0, the future of banking, and whether de-banking is a subtle attempt to ban bitcoin and crypto. Caitlin shares her thoughts on the surprise of ETF approvals and the more unknown risks of centralized exchanges. She speculates on the products banks might offer once they enter the bitcoin space and the impact of rehypothecation on bitcoin's price. 

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:26 Why did Caitlin build Custodia?

00:02:43 Opening banking to all industries

00:04:26 SEC continues losing court cases

00:05:46 Master account at the Federal Reserve

00:11:49 Custodia vs Federal Reserve

00:16:13 Operation Choke Point 2.0

00:21:05 Future of banking?

00:22:50 Is de-banking a roundabout way to ban bitcoin and crypto?

00:30:38 How surprising were the ETF approvals?

00:35:54 Unknown risk of centralized exchanges

00:38:50 When banks come what products will they offer?

00:43:08 Does rehypothecation affect the price of bitcoin?

00:46:37 Banking industry endgame–fractional reserve vs full reserve?

00:52:35 Are you surprised Tether never died?

00:57:00 What is the biggest risk to bitcoin?

01:00:12 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Caitlin Long’s Twitter: https://x.com/CaitlinLong_ 

In this episode, Brian Brookshire provides a comprehensive analysis of MicroStrategy’s bitcoin acquisition strategy. He begins with his background in fintech product marketing, including experiences at Stanford and in Asia. Brian explores MicroStrategy's use of convertible debt to accumulate more bitcoin per share, evaluating the marginal returns and looking back at the NAV discount in 2022. He discusses the risks of MicroStrategy as a bitcoin yield vehicle, potential new products, and future acquisitions. The conversation compares spot bitcoin to spot MSTR and considers whether other companies will soon follow MicroStrategy's lead. Last, Brian dives into his perspective on the stock-to-flow and power law models.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Intro

00:01:11 Brian’s background—Stanford, Asia, and fintech product marketing

00:02:49 MSTR’s bitcoin convertible debt strategy

00:12:08 Accumulating more bitcoin per share

00:15:26 Marginal returns on increasing bitcoin per share?

00:18:27 MSTR’s NAV blowing out?

00:19:41 MSTR’s NAV discount in 2022

00:21:50 MSTR as bitcoin yield?

00:22:48 MSTR new products and potential future acquisitions

00:24:12 Spot bitcoin vs spot MSTR

00:25:49 Will other companies finally follow MSTR?

00:30:08 S2F, power law, and the models

00:32:00 What’s the biggest risk to bitcoin?

00:34:44 What’s something you believe about bitcoin that many bitcoiners would disagree with?

00:35:26 Closing thoughts

WHERE TO FOLLOW US:

→ Unchained Twitter: https://twitter.com/unchainedcom

→ Unchained Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/unchainedcom 

→ Unchained Newsletter: https://unchained.com/newsletter 

→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/IIICapital

→ Brian Brookshire’s Twitter: https://x.com/btc_overflow