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Summary

In this conversation, Jesse Myers discusses the potential growth of Bitcoin in the current cycle and beyond. He believes that the previous cycle was dampened by various factors, such as the China mining ban and the Fed's interest rate hikes. As a result, he thinks that the current cycle has the potential to be bigger. He estimates that the fair value of Bitcoin at this point is lower than its actual value, and there is a compressed spring effect that could lead to higher prices. In terms of short-term predictions, he expects the price to be between $150,000 and $250,000, but it could potentially reach $350,000 if ETFs drive up demand. Looking further into the future, Jesse believes that Bitcoin's full potential valuation could be $10 million or even higher, representing a significant portion of the global asset landscape. In this conversation, Jesse Myers discusses the methodology behind Michael Saylor's Bitcoin valuation model and the assumptions made. He explains that the model assumes a future state where global asset value has quadrupled and the dollar has been debased. Myers also shares his thoughts on the potential adoption of Bitcoin by nation-states and the importance of Bitcoin as a savings technology. He highlights the need for reliable lending products and the role they could play in the transition to full Bitcoin adoption. Myers also discusses the multi-institution custody platform OnRamp, which he co-founded, and its role in diversifying risk for Bitcoin holders.

Takeaways

The current cycle has the potential to be bigger than the previous cycle due to factors like the China mining ban and the Fed's interest rate hikes.

The fair value of Bitcoin is currently lower than its actual value, and there is a compressed spring effect that could lead to higher prices.

Short-term price predictions range from $150,000 to $250,000, with the possibility of reaching $350,000 if ETFs drive up demand.

Bitcoin's full potential valuation could be $10 million or even higher, representing a significant portion of the global asset landscape. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin valuation model assumes a future state where global asset value has quadrupled and the dollar has been debased.

Bitcoin has the potential to be adopted by nation-states, and the idea of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve is gaining traction.

Reliable lending products that allow individuals to borrow against their Bitcoin holdings could play a significant role in the transition to full Bitcoin adoption.

OnRamp, a multi-institution custody platform, offers a solution for diversifying risk for Bitcoin holders by providing secure and distributed custody options.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Background

00:28 The Potential of Bitcoin's Next Cycle

05:28 Short-Term Price Predictions

10:35 The Psychology of Bitcoin Cycles

19:37 The Full Potential of Bitcoin

26:46 Valuing Bitcoin in Terms of Global Assets

32:30 Surpassing the Conservative Estimate

36:34 The Potential Future Valuation of Bitcoin

43:05 Michael Saylor's Role in Popularizing Bitcoin Analysis

46:42 The Significance of the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville

49:31 The Transition to Full Potential Bitcoin Adoption

01:01:07 The Role of Innovative Financial Instruments in Bitcoin's Growth

01:05:07 Bitcoin's Scarcity and Value as a Savings Technology