The Last Trade: Bitcoin just posted its second best week since February 2021, up about 24% from roughly 62,000 to a high near 80,000, and Brian calls it the biggest dollar magnitude move ever inside a three to five day span. Gold and Bitcoin ETFs pulled a combined $7 billion in a single week, a record for any five day period. Jackson, Michael, and Brian trace it back to the Treasury's bond buybacks and Stanley Druckenmiller's op-ed calling out his own former protege.

---

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

The show opens on Stanley Druckenmiller's Wall Street Journal op-ed, Let the Bond Market Speak, calling out his former protege Scott Bessent a week after Treasury doubled its long dated buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Brian reads it as the early stage of a controlled demolition, arguing yield curve control is QE by another name and that the plan is to debase the dollar and monetize gold, with Bitcoin as the second order effect. Michael pushes on the idea that debasement was never a trade at all but a structural shift, and the guys work through why allocators still believe there is a way out. Then the price: 24% on the week, the biggest dollar move ever in a three to five day span, and a record $7 billion week for gold and Bitcoin ETFs per Eric Balchunas. The back half covers Jamie Dimon entering stablecoins, the rush to charter new banks, dying Ledger screens as the single point of failure of the week, a white hat who spent two years inside North Korea's Lazarus Group, and Bill Gates warning that there is no plan for AI.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Live from a WeWork pod and a hotel room

03:18 - Druckenmiller's op-ed: Let the Bond Market Speak

06:41 - Nearing the end game: why these interventions are blunt tools

08:00 - Controlled demolition, debasing the dollar, monetizing gold

10:46 - Debasement was never a trade, it is a structural shift

16:12 - Recency bias, real versus nominal, and the coming repricing

19:19 - The most interventionist Treasury Secretary in decades

22:20 - Is the Iran conflict a blunder or air cover for more liquidity

26:29 - Bitcoin as the loaded gun at the table

29:06 - Second best week since February 2021: 62K to 80K

30:21 - The biggest dollar move ever in a three to five day span

36:50 - Balchunas: a record $7B week for gold and Bitcoin ETFs

37:51 - Central banks buy a record 289 tons, Jamie Dimon enters stablecoins

42:37 - The rush to charter new banks, and stablecoins as a captive T-bill buyer

46:13 - Single point of failure of the week: Ledger screens are dying

51:24 - The third way: you do not have to do it all yourself

54:09 - Two years inside North Korea's Lazarus Group

56:07 - Bill Gates says there is no plan for AI

1:00:00 - Jordi Visser on machine time versus human time

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🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Stanley Druckenmiller just used a Wall Street Journal op-ed to publicly break with his old friend and former Soros Fund Management colleague, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, over the Treasury's decision to more than double its bond buyback program. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Druckenmiller's "Let the Bond Market Speak" op-ed and what it means for the Fed's credibility, Bessent's own "Economic D-Day" sanctions warning to Chinese banks over Iranian oil, a trillion-dollar gold revaluation thesis gaining steam, and Apple's new $10,000 Mac Studio that can run frontier-level AI models with zero cloud dependency. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:06 - Topic 1 - Druckenmiller's WSJ Op-Ed Breaks With Bessent Over Treasury Buybacks

11:38 - Topic 2 - The Trillion-Dollar Gold Revaluation Play

19:46 - Topic 3 - The US Declares "Economic D-Day" on China and Iran

27:11 - Topic 4 - Apple's $10,000 Local AI Machine

34:40 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

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Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.

The Treasury doubled its bond buyback operation and Bitcoin ran from roughly $63,000 to $80,000 in a week. Michael, Liam, and Brian open on what Bessent actually did, why issuing at the front end to buy the long end is yield curve control without the name, and why gold, oil, and Bitcoin all responded the way the debasement thesis said they would. They get into whether the move was coordinated, what the White House crypto meeting and the SEC's new proposals mean with the Clarity Act stalled, and how tokenized stocks and meme coins are about to make grift a feature of the next cycle. The back half turns to market structure: Citi launching Bitcoin custody, why Bitcoin is a one way street once people understand it, and the honeypot problem banks are walking into. They close on Stripe buying OpenRouter, NVIDIA moving up the AI stack, agentic payments at Ramp, and a leak of API keys from 659 Stripe merchants.

Chapters

00:00 - Bitcoin rips from $63K to $80K

02:55 - Bessent doubles the Treasury buyback

05:27 - Why you cannot time Bitcoin's best ten days

07:35 - Revaluing gold and the liquidity sponge trade

11:43 - Tether and the new eurodollar market

12:22 - Bitcoin is back on institutional screens

15:03 - Was this whole move coordinated?

17:49 - The White House crypto meeting and the SEC

20:32 - Tokenized stocks, meme coins, and legalized grift

28:16 - Oil, energy, and nominal versus real wealth

32:19 - Citi launches Bitcoin custody

33:20 - Bitcoin is a one way street

40:44 - The honeypot problem with bank custody

43:56 - Stripe buys OpenRouter and the singularity letter

49:36 - NVIDIA, Perplexity, OpenAI, and Hugging Face

58:20 - Ramp, x402, and agentic payments

1:01:34 - Robots beat Usain Bolt

1:06:20 - Single point of failure: 659 Stripe merchant keys

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The Treasury just told markets not to trust their own eyes. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson put four stories on the clock. They break down the US Treasury more than doubling its bond buyback program, from a $2 billion cap to a $4 billion floor, in an attempt to cap bond yields, only for 30-year yields to erase the intervention and climb back toward multi-decade highs within 24 hours, right after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yields "do not reflect the underlying fundamentals." OpenAI has reportedly paused a round of frontier-model post-training over safety concerns, just as Alibaba's open-source Qwen model closes the gap on the frontier labs while running on a laptop. Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine cleared a major late-stage trial milestone, sending both stocks sharply higher. And New York City is weighing grants for local grocers to help them compete with Mayor Mamdani's government-run grocery stores. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

00:53 - Topic 1 - Treasury Doubles the Bond Buyback as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

06:28 - Topic 2 - OpenAI Pauses Training as Qwen Goes Toe to Toe With the Frontier

10:55 - Topic 3 - Moderna and Merck's Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough

16:40 - Topic 4 - Mamdani's Government-Run Grocery Stores

23:42 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🔸 Where Do We Go From Here: The Evolution of Bitcoin Custody & Financial Services

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

The Last Trade: the US Treasury just doubled its long-dated debt buybacks, turning a $2B daily cap into a $4B daily floor, and long yields fell, gold jumped $100 an ounce, and Bitcoin ripped a five thousand dollar candle. Jackson, Michael, and Brian make the case that this is the opening move of yield curve control and the Bitcoin thesis playing out in real time. They also cover Citi confirming Bitcoin custody, the Trezor shipping breach, and why the flight into ETFs is the wrong lesson.

---

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

Jackson opens on the Bloomberg headline that Bessent deployed the buyback in a sign of concern over rising yields, then walks the mechanics: a $2B cap is now a $4B floor, the Treasury's own release claims strong sponsorship from market participants while doing the opposite, and Fred Hickey reads it as desperation after a poor 20-year auction. Brian frames it as inevitable, arguing that euphoric tops become resistance bottoms, that a 70K top five years ago is now a floor, and that this drawdown ran about 54% against past drawdowns of 70 to 80%. Michael points at Japan, where the yen lost roughly half its purchasing power in twelve months, and at Paul Tudor Jones adding back to a position he had shaved down. The back half turns to custody: Citi confirming its Custody Plus platform, the SEC proposing its own rules while the Clarity Act stalls, the Trezor shipping breach weeks after Coldcard, and why an ETF you cannot exit in kind is the wrong answer.

🧠 Chapters

04:06 - The Treasury doubles its debt buybacks: $2B cap becomes a $4B floor

07:35 - Euphoric tops become resistance bottoms: this is why Bitcoin exists

08:59 - Japan, the yen, and Paul Tudor Jones adding back

11:35 - The Treasury's press release says the opposite of what it is doing

12:40 - The 1940s precedent: a decade of yield curve control at 120% debt to GDP

16:00 - Fred Hickey on a poor 20-year auction and gold jumping $100

17:37 - Citi confirms Bitcoin custody under its Custody Plus platform

20:17 - Why the Clarity Act may not matter anymore

25:54 - Travis Kling on apathy, and why the price did not move on the SEC news

31:46 - Single point of failure of the week: the Trezor shipping breach

34:21 - Changing the logic of violence: how not to be the easiest target

39:40 - In-kind subscriptions: you can get into the ETF, not out of it

45:04 - The third way: neither trusting yourself nor trusting Coinbase

52:02 - Bloomberg on beating inflation, with no mention of gold or Bitcoin

1:01:19 - Robinhood's super cycle and the grand super cycle of rugged

1:06:14 - Young Americans turn on AI, and what that means for Bitcoin

1:13:00 - The New York happy hour, and what is next

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🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

The United States just crossed the $40 trillion debt milestone, and new Treasury data shows foreign buyers pulling back. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson put four stories on the clock (Brian Cubellis is out this week). They break down Anthropic's revenue run rate climbing to $65 billion in July, about seven times where it was a year ago, against OpenAI's recently reported $40 billion, and what it means for the AI capex debate. A new company called Toka can hijack live camera feeds, Google just paid $10 million for Spirit Airlines' internal customer data, and a viral backlash against Flock's license-plate cameras raises the question of who is actually watching your data. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell in June, led by Japan and China, and a global bond selloff has sent long-term borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades, right as the country crosses $40 trillion in debt. And with Senate control now a 50-50 toss-up, the group discusses what a Democratic sweep in 2026 would mean for AI regulation, deficit spending, and the K-shaped economy. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

00:56 - Topic 1 - Anthropic's Revenue Surge and the AI Capex Debate

08:53 - Topic 2 - Are You Being Watched? Toka, Google, and Flock Cameras

15:16 - Topic 3 - The Sovereign Debt Crisis and Bond Yields at Decades Highs

22:20 - Topic 4 - Socialism, the Senate, and the K-Shaped Economy

28:48 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

Gen Z is moving money out of the stock market and into sports betting. Jackson Mikalic, Brian Cubellis, Liam Nelson, and Michael Tanguma put four stories on the shot clock. They break down a Betterment survey showing more than half of young investors have redirected investing money into sports betting, a Trezor shipping-partner data breach that exposed roughly 12,000 hardware-wallet customers, the widening gap between AI adopters and laggards as top firms burn 8.3x the median in output tokens, and why almost nobody understands inflation, with wages down around 87% measured in gold. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

04:28 - Topic 1 - Trezor Data Breach and the Custody Problem

12:52 - Topic 2 - Gen Z Trades Stocks for Sports Bets

20:33 - Topic 3 - The AI Adopter Gap Is Exploding

25:50 - Topic 4 - Why Nobody Understands Inflation

33:37 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

The Last Trade: BlackRock just cut the IBIT in-kind conversion minimum from $25M to $1M, and Jackson, Michael, and Brian ask whether the post-Cold Card rush out of self-custody and into the ETF is swapping one single point of failure for another. They break down the SEC and OCC moving on tokenized securities and a path for crypto firms to become banks as a Clarity Act plan B, Trump Media stacking real Bitcoin while divesting its other crypto, gold surging toward $4,500, and the wrench-attack reality that makes multi-institution custody matter.

---

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

The team opens on BlackRock cutting the IBIT in-kind conversion minimum from $25M to $1M, and argues the post-Cold Card rush from self-custody into the ETF is swapping one single point of failure for another. Brian points out that IBIT holders are ultimately unsecured creditors of Coinbase, and Michael calls the redemption problem Hotel California, easy to enter and hard to exit. They read the SEC and OCC moves, tokenized securities on Robinhood, Coinbase, and Kraken plus a path for crypto firms to become banks, as agencies executing a Clarity Act plan B, while Trump Media divests World Liberty and its Crypto.com stake yet keeps stacking real Bitcoin toward roughly 15,000 coins. On the macro side they treat Trump's floated capital gains cut and inflation indexing as midterm noise with a real housing-unfreeze motive under a $2M exemption. They turn to gold near $4,500 and Nomura standing up physical gold custody in Singapore as the debasement trade resuming, then close on the wrench-attack reality, a French couple repeatedly targeted, and why multi-institution custody with Lloyd's coverage exists.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Stream Announcements

02:32 - Discussion on Capital Gains Tax and Market Impact

04:37 - Market Noise vs. Reality in Policy Changes

06:46 - Housing Market and Capital Gains Exemptions

08:40 - Unfreezing the Housing Market and Policy Incentives

11:14 - Market Topology and Recession Indicators

12:46 - Crypto Regulatory Developments and Institutional Moves

18:58 - BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF and Custody Trends

31:36 - Gold's Market Surge and Its Implications

38:00 - Physical Gold Trading and Global Market Infrastructure

43:26 - Market Structure, Custody, and Security Risks

50:12 - The Future of Bitcoin Custody and Institutional Adoption

52:28 - Market Sentiment, Self-Custody, and Industry Outlook

54:07 - Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events

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🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets

Michael Saylor's Strategy is selling Bitcoin while Trump Media just added more than 4,000 BTC. Jackson Mikalic, Brian Cubellis, Liam Nelson, and Michael Tanguma put four stories on the shot clock. They break down Strategy selling another 1,690 BTC as its USD reserve hits $4.65 billion against Trump Media's 10-Q showing 14,139 BTC, up from 9,542 in March, Nvidia lining up $500 billion of Wall Street capital for AI compute with a 25% backstop, Spotify's new skip-ad button and YouTube's tighter monetization bar, and credit card debt hitting $1.26 trillion as fintech Clare rides workers living paycheck to paycheck. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

01:01 - Topic 1 - Strategy Sells Bitcoin, Trump Media Stacks It

07:35 - Topic 2 - Nvidia's $500B Wall Street AI Deal

13:00 - Topic 3 - Spotify's Skip Button and the War on Ads

22:16 - Topic 4 - Credit Card Debt Hits $1.26T and Fintech Clare

28:31 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement

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Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.

The CLARITY Act has slipped to a September 15 Senate vote, and Bitcoin did not move. This week Michael, Liam, and Brian make the case that stalled legislation on top of the Coldcard fallout, BIP-110 infighting, and Saylor selling, with the price still holding, is what a bottom looks like rather than a top. They run through a brutal week for Bitcoin infrastructure: BTCPay Server, Zeus, and Boltz all disclosing vulnerabilities or going dark, with Boltz warning that attackers now iterate faster than a team its size can patch. On the AI side they cover Kimi K3 escaping an isolated sandbox, Sam Altman's comments on Astra and who gets frontier access, an agent that cancelled a stranger's gym reservation to move its owner up the waitlist, and Cloudflare Wallets arriving as agent requests climb 1,700% and cross half of all network traffic. They close on the deals: Yellow Card's $40M round, Sapium's $35M Series A for the agent routing layer, Coinbase losing BVNK to Mastercard despite bidding $700M more, Airtable selling for $1.29B after an $11.7B peak, and what Block's Buzz did during the Coldcard incident.

Chapters

00:00 - Coldcard update: thefts slow, 2,000 BTC still gone

01:00 - BTCPay Server, Zeus, and Boltz all disclose vulnerabilities

02:51 - Why open source Bitcoin code became the target

04:11 - Boltz: attackers now iterate faster than we can patch

05:22 - Liam: Bitcoin itself is not the vulnerability

06:40 - Good actors handicapped when US frontier models refuse

10:04 - Sam Altman on Astra and keeping powerful models from the few

11:12 - Only 2% of US households pay for AI

13:34 - Kimi K3 escapes its isolated sandbox

14:34 - Why non-deterministic models cannot be reliably contained

19:35 - An agent cancels a stranger's gym reservation

20:58 - Cloudflare Wallets and the programmable agentic internet

23:45 - Agent traffic passes human traffic

26:42 - ARK on Cloudflare's earnings: agent requests up 1,700%

31:07 - Privy's CRM breach and the limits of mobile wallets

32:13 - The CLARITY Act slips to September 15

33:45 - Why stalled legislation plus a flat price looks like a bottom

35:56 - Yellow Card raises $40M for African stablecoin rails

37:40 - Sapium raises $35M for the AI agent routing layer

40:14 - Coinbase bid $2.5B for BVNK and lost to Mastercard at $1.8B

42:17 - Airtable sells for $1.29B after an $11.7B peak

45:32 - The Architecture Problem and where custody goes next

47:48 - Why every firm ends up at multi-institution custody

49:22 - Buzz, Goose, and how Block moved in hours on Coldcard

54:45 - GPU hours as crude oil: an open source AI analogy

55:34 - Sergey Brin returns to Gemini, Meta ships Muse Code

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