In this episode we go over mistakes we made in our cannabis investing decisions and how we've improved our game since.

This is especially important as we are seeing investors repeating the same mistakes.

- Where did we go wrong? The importance of humility and continual learning

- Checking your ego at the door on the way up

- Investors are not learning - same mistakes are being repeated

- Deals "priced to perfection" - investors not getting paid appropriately for uncertainty

- Relying on headlines and "experts" for information (which is inherently biased)

- Getting information from online echo chambers of cheerleaders (weak surface level due diligence)

- Not actively seeking out negative or contrary opinions

- Investing on hype and potential rather than fundamental prospects

Forward Looking: What if Bernie Sanders wins the election? Discussing federal legality

Hello CIN listeners! In this episode we talk about Aurora and other companies who have cut jobs. How do we right the ship? How do we fix the existing mess that we are seeing?

Although we continue to warn investors for the fallout about to occur we also want to explain why we are still actively investing in the cannabis space. In this episode we discuss the major factors which will drive the sector longer-term:

1. Canada - 2.0 Product Ramp & Ontario Retail Stores (~500 expected by end of 2021)

2. New Markets - International (Mexico, Israel, EU) + US (New Jersey, New York, Arizona and more)

These two points alone will potentially bring billions of dollars of sales online in the next 2 years!

3. Rise of CBD and other Compounds (CBN, CBG, and more to come)

4. Potential for Bio Synthetic Cannabinoids 

It's important to keep a longer-term focus as it takes time to build real businesses and have new programs roll-out. 

In this fun episode we talk about what we've seen in Toronto for Cannabis 2.0 Products.

Some topics we cover:

- The Rollout of 2.0 Products

- Types of products we've seen

- Which products are selling the best

- Concerns for the future

- Some of the best products we've seen so far

In this week's episode we digest our warning from last week and discuss some issues which have come to the surface. Many of these are warning lights flashing for weed investors to exercise caution:

- How we got here: people are not paying attention

- BMO issues an optimistic Price Target on Canopy for $40 CAD. Why this matters (and why they're wrong)

- Discussing Medipharm's $9.8M CAD statement of claim against HEXO 

- Are we wrong? Is the negativity in the space already "priced in"?

- Where are we now: Hot Air Balloon Metaphor

- Should companies just stay private instead?

- Promo companies not promoting - what that means

- Long-term bullish: Why the winning companies will benefit from all this

In this episode we discuss several types of bias we see in ourselves and other cannabis investors. The ultimate goal is to understand patterns of thought and adjusting to make better investing decisions.

- Understanding your own bias from your investing background

- Dissociating your political opinions from business reality

- Avoiding group think and online echo chambers

- Be careful of confirmation bias and avoiding negative information

In this episode we lay out a serious warning to our network about the potential for an impending capital & liquidity crisis for the cannabis sector in 2020. 

Companies are rapidly burning cash and financing is very tough to secure. Many companies (especially smaller ones) are running out of runway faster than you might think. Why is no one talking about it?

- What is going on?

- Fundamentals vs Capital Markets

- How bad is it? (hint: pretty damn bad)

- Predicting what happens next

- How to protect yourself as an investor

- Survivors will be long term winners

- Medium-Long term very bullish on the cannabis space but have to pick your spots accordingly

- What to look for in all of your holdings to evaluate your own risk

- Are we wrong? Thoughts on things we may have missed

**Do you agree or disagree? We'd love to hear your thoughts - [email protected]

In this episode we make some predictions for what is to come in 2020 for cannabis investing. In this episode:

1. "The Great Divide" - Winners & Losers Emerge

- Mentality will shift: sector will stop moving as one and winners will emerge

- Shifting from ETF mentality to stock picking (from passive to active)

- Example: Trulieve should separate from the pack given their isolation in Florida and strong financial performance

- Losers will lose HARD while winners will distinguish themselves

2. Predicting Sales for Canada in 2020

- The $3B sales bet...under or over?

- Major catalyst for 2020 sales with Cannabis 2.0 and Ontario store increases

- Will be a slow rollout for both, so the ramp will be gradual

- Many unknowns still to be seen (like how Beverages sell)

- Still a short list of winners in Canada who will be in a better position in 2021

3. The US & Canada - The Separation Begins

- US will begin to outperform Canada 

- Illinois and Michigan will prove to be very strong markets with a strong ramp in 2020 but will really shine in 2021

- Data and results will drive investors to invest in the US in 2020

- 280E Taxation remains the biggest issue US operators will face

- Big States which may go Rec: Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Arizona (I mentioned Florida but their initiative is now dead)

- New Jersey seems the most likely and represents a very lucrative market ("Florida 2.0")

- Mexico story looks promising, Europe story is less attractive 

- CORRECTION: MediPharm did NOT get their EU GMP certification yet, they got their Australian GMP

4. Rough Patch Ahead - Be Careful!

- Capital crunch has turned into a capital crisis - very difficult to raise funds

- Very few companies have gone under despite being very close to it

- Circle the Drain Financing: Desperate companies will take crappy deals to try to save the ship

- Some companies will turn it around, others won't

- Bankruptcies will cause a domino effect and pull many others down with it

- Ramp up of sales in Canada will be slow and won't be fully realized until H2 2021

- The general cannabis market will get punished as this occurs

- There is no bottom for crappy companies! Some will go to zero! Especially those low on cash and burning fast

- The companies who survive will come out stronger and better positioned

5. M&A From Unlikely Sources

- Companies will look to merge to survive...but cash is king!

- Potential for non-cannabis companies with cash on balance sheet combining with struggling cannabis companies

6. Up & Downs Continue

- Things will not go straight up or down. Volatility will continue

- FOMO is dead. Be patient, be picky and take profits!

- No federal legalization in US in 2020 but 2-3 major states to go rec

QUESTION: What are your predictions? Email us!

Happy New Year! In this market update we cover the good and bad for the start of 2020!

- 2020 will be a year of Strong Catalysts driven by Fundamental Growth

- There will also be significant headwinds to navigate

Illinois Goes Full Rec:

- Banner first day with $3.3M USD sales + $2.2M on 2nd day

- $11M USD of sales in 5 days (with customers paying $20 USD/gram of flower)

- Illinois will be a great market in 2020 and 2021, with a strong sales ramp and limited licenses

Ontario Retail:

- 45 dispensaries to open in Ontario Q1-Q2 (licenses were granted last year)

- 160 new retail licenses in 2020 in Ontario (~225 granted by end of 2020 and ~475 by end of 2021)

- This will greatly help ramp Canadian sales in 2020 and 2021

Cannabis 2.0 Launches in Canada:

- 2.0 products shipping this week to retail and online next week (in Ontario)

- These High Margin products will greatly drive sales for the entire industry

- Very limited supply of products initially with many more to roll out over next 6 months

- Will be similar to flower – under supply then over supply

- We debate the strict marketing rules and how fast companies should be moving

Vaping Bans:

Quebec banning vapes and raising age to 21

Alberta delaying vapes until spring (at least)

US News:

- Debt Deals for Curaleaf ($275M USD) + Harvest ($73M USD)

Curaleaf - $275M USD debt deals // Harvest - $90M USD debt deal

- Trulieve Short Report

Florida – Rec vote not looking good, suing for more time (flower got approved by lawsuit)

See full Florida point-by-point rebuttal here: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x

If you are not changing the way you invest going into 2020 you are in trouble!

In this end of the year episode we recap the top 5 lessons learned for Cannabis Investing. 

#1 - No Excuses, Play Like A Champion

- Every investor is the CEO of their own account

- Take full responsibility for your own results and learn from your mistakes

- "It's not your fault but it is your problem"

#2 - LEARN LEARN LEARN & Pay Attention

- The importance of investing time and energy into learning this space

- Continually evolving your thinking in this fast moving environment

- Building a network of trustworthy investors to bounce ideas off of

#3 -  Investing vs Trading in Cannabis

- Shifting away from the negative stigma of Trading

- Learning what can affect short term movements of a stock

- Marrying the best of both worlds to find the strategy that works best for you

#4 - Read Data NOT Headlines

- Importance of reading past the headlines

- Acknowledge your weaknesses and improve upon them - especially if they are financial related

- Future will be financial and results based - make sure you are analyzing for yourself!

- Good data is like a crystal ball

- Beware paid and biased information sources (including investment banks)

#5 - Quality over Quantity

- Shifting from a broad portfolio of shiny companies to a consolidated list of winners

- Willing to make lower profits in favour of lower risk

- Getting paid for taking risk on earlier stage names

- Running sensitivity on valuations to see what the margin for error is

CLOSING - NOMO FOMO

- This business is extremely capital intensive, even the best companies will need to keep raising

- Investors will have chances to buy into these companies along the way as equity raises will be needed

- Keep evolving your mindset into 2020 and beyond!

Please note: This episode was recorded before the Trulieve short report came out. Our detailed breakdown of the Trulieve report here:  

https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ebztnd/my_analysis_of_the_trul_trulieve_short_report/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x 

Next Episode: Top Predictions for 2020