In this episode we talk about how we kick the tires on potential private investments.

- How we evaluate potential private deals

- Mentality behind venture investing

- Potential Red Flags & Deal Killers

- Personal Frameworks for Evaluating Private Deals

Next Week: Stay tuned for fresh episodes on 2020 predictions and top picks!

In this episode we explore 4 common overhangs which can weigh on Cannabis Stocks. Most of these things are unique to small cap and venture investing.

- Overhang: Factor which negatively impacts a stock (typically short to medium term)

- How this helps answer "Is This the Right Time to Buy"?

1. Cap Table / Share Structure

- Understanding the importance of the cap table

- Why previous rounds of financing matter and the "Game Theory" involved

- How warrants and cheap paper can drag on a stock

2. Share Unlocks

- Unlocks can create a huge overhang, real or perceived

- How Mergers & Acquisitions create large unlocks

- Resource for US MSO unlocks: https://www.statesidecannabisinvestors.com/calendar

3. Timing

- Examining two low volume seasons: Summer & Tax-Loss Period

- Debating if timing matters for fundamental investors

4. Capital Raises 

- Why capital raises drop the share price

- Why capital raising is actually not a bad thing in the long-run

- What to look out for (straight equity vs debt vs warrant coverage)

- How to Predict a Future Capital Raise

**Note: Episode was recorded prior to MedMen/Pharmacann being called off (but the concept still applies)

In this episode we examine an article titled "The Cannabis Bubble has Burst". Were we in a bubble? What is a bubble? What does this mean for cannabis investors?

- The definition of an investment bubble (valuations vs fundamentals)

- Why it's so difficult to identify a bubble

- The 5 Stages of a Bubble: Displacement, Boom, Euphoria, Selling & Panic

1. Displacement: How it starts

2. Boom: Quick money being made and momentum builds

3. Euphoria: FOMO is king and the investment goes mainstream

4. Selling: Sophisticated Capital exits 

5. Panic: The Sell-Off deepends and the bubble bursts

- Mistaking luck and risk-taking behaviour for genius

- Is Cannabis A Bubble? Why or Why Not?

- How US Operators will drive fundamental value over time

- How strong operators will dominate the market in a capital crunch

In this episode we dive into the world of Sale Leaseback transactions. We are seeing this pop up more and more as the capital crunch gets worse.

- What are Sale Leasebacks?

- How do they work?

- What's special about Cannabis related Leasebacks?

- Why are we hearing so much about these kind of deals?

- Who is Innovative Industrial REIT (IIPR) and how important are they to the industry?

- Would Manish buy IIPR or another Cannabis REIT today? Why or Why Not?

What happens next for Cannabis stocks? Will the market bounce back to new highs or is there more pain in sight?

- Short Term Trading vs Long Term Investing

- Yes and No: Why some companies will surge and some will fail

- Sector wide sell-off hurts everyone

- Winners starting to bounce back and differentiate themselves

- Why many companies will fail going forward

- How did we get here? Pre Legalization hype based investing

- Old Method: Using "Funded Capacity" and Lofty Projections

- Today: Matured to Show Me instead of Tell 

- Examining Revenue vs Margins vs Earnings vs Cashflow

- Using Origin House as an example - selling off companies that don't smell like Winners

- Balancing Revenue Growth with Burning Cash

- How do we find winners? What to look for (cash, margins, earning potential, market, business type)

- Cash and Cashflow and Capital Markets are KING

- How to Play the Volatility in the Sector (trading vs investing)

- Future Catalysts and Landmines

In this episode we explore the pains and issues Canada is having.

What are the core problems? What are the solutions? Will these problems be solved? When?

- Forecasting the Canadian Weed Stocks going forward (how to play the volatility)

- The Good News: Many of the problems are fixable and will eventually be solved

- The Bad News: We are 12-24 months away from any earnings relief. Many companies won't survive

- Explaining today's issues in terms of Supply & Demand

- Companies are missing revenue guidance (HEXO, OGI, Canopy, etc)

- Large build-up of inventory in the system (exploring the numbers)

- 3 Core Problems: Retail, Marketing and Distribution

Retail: Ontario is far lagging behind and needs 20x the retail stores

- Why this problem might get solved and how long it will take

- Why private owned retail is SO important 

Marketing: Why the strict rules are hurting the system

- Why retail can help solve this problem

Distribution: Government playing middle-man causing huge issues

- This may change in Ontario but unlikely to in Quebec

Picking Winners: What to look for in companies that can weather the storm

Conclusion: How investors should act going forward knowing what is coming next

In this episode we explore Maneesh's thesis that Florida is the best cannabis market we've seen so far. Here's why:

- The 3 levels of cannabis legality - which is the best for investors?

- Why is every big company focusing on Florida? Profitability

- Trulieve leads the industry in EBITDA margins and Earnings

- What makes Florida such a profitable market?

- Overview of Florida's rules and set-up

- Vertical Integration: Forcing full Seed to Sale

- Cultivation > Extraction > Processing > Distribution > Retail

- Barriers to Entry - the impact of strict Vertical Integration

- Why it is harder than people think to scale in Florida

- Capturing high profit margins: what makes a business attractive

- Transparency: OMMU data lets us see weekly sales

- Rapid Growth: 170K to 300K patients in a single year

- Doubling of product sold + flower introduced in 2019

- Full Rec: Legalize It Florida vs Regulate Florida

- Will Michigan or Illinois surpass Florida in 2020?

We're back! In this PACKED market update we cover:

- Whatever happened to that vaping "crisis"?

Some positive news for Canada for once!

- Cannabis Council write an Open Letter to Doug Ford

- Ford Government responds quickly - signalling very positive news for Ontario and Canada

- The 3 changes the Ford government is promising and why it might save the cannabis market

- BUT be careful...they still haven't specified any concrete timelines

- Discussing the building of inventory in the system and the risk this poses; How does this get resolved?

- The Drake / More Life Growth Deal

- What this means and why Manish thinks it's so important (beyond his Drake man-crush)

- LABS applies for NASDAQ listing

- Trulieve raises $60M USD at good terms

- Zenabis seeks to raise $20M CAD at brutal terms

- Upcoming earnings: LABS, WEED, VFF, TRUL & GTI

- When the earnings release what to look for

In this episode we deviate from our usual mantra of "buy companies not stocks" and talk about why it is important to be a good stock and what makes a good stock. 

How do companies capture investor attention and get love from the capital markets? We differentiate between being a fundamentally good long term investment and being a good stock that captures the attention of investors.

This is an episode we recorded in the summer after visiting Detroit for a conference.

We give an overview of the Michigan market and why we think it will be one investors should pay close attention to.

- The revitalization of Detroit since 2008

- The 6 main types of licenses (similar to California's model):

#1) Cultivation

#2) Processing / Extraction / Manufacturing

#3)  Retail / Dispensary

#4) Secure Transport (stand alone)

#5) Lab Testing (stand alone)

#6) Micro-Grow

- How Michigan compares to Florida in terms of patient count

- Why Michigan is actually a tourist destination

- Why Michigan will be a smoother roll-out than Ontario

- X-Factor: Michigan's Black Market

- Future Predictions for the Michigan Market