In this episode we update our Fed Party analogy to ask: where are we now? What's next? Where is the opportunity?

As the broader market gets crushed we discuss what is happening, how stocks are being repriced and how cannabis will look in comparison. 

Link:

The Fed on Inflation & Rates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugBKSiTL0IU&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance

We're back! After a long road trip we share our thoughts, takeaways and changes in strategy after a very productive Benzinga.

What did we see? What did we learn? What are the best investment opportunities right now?

In this week's episode we discuss Burn Out. As sentiment continues to be depressed and the macro environment looks ugly it is easy to feel down and out on cannabis. In this episode we discuss ideas and strategies for handling and avoiding burn out.

In this episode we discuss balancing short term catalysts for cannabis with an ugly macro picture.

We also look out to 2024 and discuss how the industry will look, with multiple attractive markets open and a presidential election approaching.

Videos mentioned:

Fed will Crush Stocks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fiiib9oqTB0&t=1s&ab_channel=BloombergMarketsandFinance 

In this weeks episode we do a market update on:

- the MORE act passing the house (again)

- Mainstream recognition and momentum building

- CAOA and SAFE possibilities

- New Mexico starting legal sales with a bang

- Listener Question re: Schwazze 

- Cresco x Columbia Care Merger thoughts

We also discuss how the macro effects of inflation, supply chain issues and accelerating rate hikes might break the economy. We talk through how cannabis might behave in a recession and why it may not be all bad for the industry.

In this episode we go back to where it all started – the Canadian cannabis market!

We are joined by Everett Knight who is Executive Vice President at the Valens Company. Everett has a very interesting background as he was an institutional investor in Cannabis as early as 2013. He has toured over 200 cannabis facilities between the US and Canada, investing on both sides of the border. He experienced significant investment success in the early days before deciding to “get in the game” by join Valens.

Because Everett has experience on both sides of the fence he has a unique perspective - the ability to think through the investment implications of the industry but have a view to the inner operational side of the business. Similarly, Valens has operations in both Canada and the US (including a new NASDAQ listing). 

We have a very honest conversation about: 

- what Canada looked like early on

- why Canada is so challenging as a market

- how Canada compares to California (and other unlimited license states)

- Valens financial performance and outlook for 2023

- what will happen to Canada over the next 2 years?

Thanks to Everett for joining us.

You can follow him @ https://twitter.com/smallcapfund

or contact Valens IR @ https://thevalenscompany.com/contact/

In this episode we discuss 3 categories of upcoming catalysts which could help propel the cannabis sector out of its current slump

We break out these potential catalysts into state level changes, federal changes and potential M&A.

We also discuss which changes will have a long term impact and which could be have short lived benefit. 

In this episode we dig through our listener mailbox to answer some wide ranging questions including:

- New York giving first 200 retail licenses to Social Equity

- Canadian LPs rapidly losing share to smaller producers; what does this mean for the US?

- How do we like Curaleaf at these prices?

- How will low share prices affect M&A?

- When to sell your holdings?

- What do we think about the Ancillary plays?

- Why is this still an attractive industry?

- How much upside is there in any one cannabis name?

Thanks for the great questions and please keep sending them in!

References:

Trump vs Nancy Mace: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/nikki-haley-trump.html

Nancy Mace Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKwodshrxU&t=183s&ab_channel=mindsetcapital 

As markets continue to give everyone heart burn we try to take a sober look at:

1) Emotions - how it feels to live through volatility

2) Risks to Limited License Operators - some negatives we are seeing

3) Fundamentals - why the thesis still makes sense, but how we are underwriting more conservatively

In this episode we dig into potential downside risks to the long term thesis of our cannabis holdings including interstate commerce, federal regulations, state regulations and price volatility. We also spend some time discussing why its so important to think about downside risk in this industry and sizing your portfolio appropriately. 

Links / Articles Discussed:

1)The Cannalysts Hot Dog Stand Analogy: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheCannalysts/comments/st9a7l/the_hot_dog_stand_an_analogy/

2) Oklahoma is a Cannabis Boom State: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/oklahoma-marijuana-boom.html