Cannabis Investing Network

In this episode we discuss 3 categories of upcoming catalysts which could help propel the cannabis sector out of its current slump

We break out these potential catalysts into state level changes, federal changes and potential M&A.

We also discuss which changes will have a long term impact and which could be have short lived benefit. 

In this episode we dig through our listener mailbox to answer some wide ranging questions including:

- New York giving first 200 retail licenses to Social Equity

- Canadian LPs rapidly losing share to smaller producers; what does this mean for the US?

- How do we like Curaleaf at these prices?

- How will low share prices affect M&A?

- When to sell your holdings?

- What do we think about the Ancillary plays?

- Why is this still an attractive industry?

- How much upside is there in any one cannabis name?

Thanks for the great questions and please keep sending them in!

References:

Trump vs Nancy Mace: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/us/politics/nikki-haley-trump.html

Nancy Mace Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAKwodshrxU&t=183s&ab_channel=mindsetcapital 

As markets continue to give everyone heart burn we try to take a sober look at:

1) Emotions - how it feels to live through volatility

2) Risks to Limited License Operators - some negatives we are seeing

3) Fundamentals - why the thesis still makes sense, but how we are underwriting more conservatively

In this episode we dig into potential downside risks to the long term thesis of our cannabis holdings including interstate commerce, federal regulations, state regulations and price volatility. We also spend some time discussing why its so important to think about downside risk in this industry and sizing your portfolio appropriately. 

Links / Articles Discussed:

1)The Cannalysts Hot Dog Stand Analogy: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheCannalysts/comments/st9a7l/the_hot_dog_stand_an_analogy/

2) Oklahoma is a Cannabis Boom State: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/29/us/oklahoma-marijuana-boom.html

In this episode we are joined by a special guest who brings a different perspective. Charting Man Dan of The Chart Guys is a well known cannabis personality who specializes in technical analysis and chart reading. Dan is a veteran cannabis trader but also regularly trades broader indices and crypto.

In this episode we discuss:

- What is technical analysis?

- Why is technical analysis useful?

- How does trading on the OTC differ from Higher Exchanges

- What are Dan's personal strategies with regards to cannabis trading

- How does Dan decide to buy or sell a stock

- Why does Dan think we are at the bottom of a cycle and what would change his mind

Thanks to Dan for joining us and sharing his perspective

Contact / More Information:

The Chart Guys - https://www.chartguys.com/ 

Dan's Youtube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/c/TheChartGuys/videos

In this episode, we are joined by Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy.

Hirsh does a deep dive on the Arizona market, which implemented its adult use program in a record 2.5 months after legalizing cannabis through a state ballot initiative in November 2020, generating more than $1.35 billion in sales in its first year. Hirsh walks through some of the reasons Arizona's program has had success, including its licensing structure, favorable tax climate and a high level of cooperation between state regulators and the industry.

We also discuss what other states may be in a position to learn from Arizona's example, and implement successful adult use programs in the near future.

It's been only 2 weeks since our last market update and we have seen a very rough market shakeout.

As we face down a volatile equity market we find ourselves asking fundamental questions about investing: Why is the market behaving so wildly? Where should we invest? What sectors will do well? How will cannabis weather the storm?

We talk about key macro considerations like inflation and interest rates and discuss wheher they should factor into our investing decisions. We talk through our reasoning on why investors should still be interested in equities and why cannabis equities in particular are attractive. However, the increased volatility we are seeing means we may want to change strategies, allocations and cash balances going forward.

In this episode we are delighted to bring back our unofficial political correspondent, Jason.  Jason has extensive experience working on the ‘Hill’.  He was a member of 2 lobbying groups that advocated for safe and fair-trade issues and economic investment in American cities.  As well, he worked for an appropriations chairman who focused on financial services and trade issues.

Jason recently wrote a detailed post on reddit titled ‘Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead’.   The post is well written with one of the main themes being: We must see the whole board and understand the position that our legislative agenda fits into the broader picture.  This is an important perspective when considering the impact politics plays in Cannabis.  We discuss this these along with the following topics:

What events occurred that led to the removal of SAFE from the NDAA

Money in the politics and where to look

How the political catalyst landscape looks for 2022

What, if anything, we can predict about the years beyond this November’s election.

The 3 Political Tests you should do to prevent getting caught up in the hype:

(1) Political Test: Democratic Leadership is comfortable with a vote

(2) Practical Test: There are a majority of votes in Congress

(3) Bi-Partisan Test: there are votes from both sides of the aisle.

Links:

https://www.opensecrets.org/

Jason's Article - Understanding Washington: 2022 The Year Ahead (Click here for the article).

As always, we hope you enjoy this episode.

In this 2022 Market Update we discuss the theme that "nothing has changed" since late last year and why that is both positive and negative for the cannabis industry. In particular we discuss macro factors such as raising interest rates and how that sets up a difficult investing environment for 2022. We also discuss industry specific issues and give some predictions for how they may play out.

Read JP's outlook for SAFE banking - https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/s2cw14/understanding_washington_2022_the_year_ahead/ 

In this episode of our executive series we are joined by Greg Butler of Cresco Labs. Greg is Cresco's Chief Commercial Officer and has a wide ranging background including pharma, private equity and alcohol. 

In this interview we discuss:

- Greg's Origins: How he got started in cannabis and why he chose Cresco Labs

- Alcohol vs Cannabis: how the industries are different and how they are similar

- Competitive Threat: How Big Beer is tracking the cannabis industry

- Industry Evolution: how cannabis is changing as it gets more competitive

- Building a Cannabis Brand: what it means, what matters and what's changing

- Financials: What will drive growth ahead for Cresco

- Being the "Partner of Choice": How Cresco is positioning itself for the future of the industry

- Investment and Acquisitions: What big CPG will look for when it comes time to partner with an MSO

Thank you to Greg for joining us for this interview!