Chain Reaction

Last Thursday (July 25, 2019) was the 25th anniversary of the Washington Declaration, which ended the state of war between Israel and Jordan. The peace treaty that followed remains a key component of Middle Eastern security and underpins relations between Jerusalem and Amman. Dr. Josh Krasna, a FPRI senior fellow and adjunct assistant professor at the NYU Center for Global Affairs, discusses the state of Israeli-Jordanian relations, the future of the peace treaty, and the role of the Trump administration.

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Amidst reports of a UAE drawdown from Yemen, Aaron speaks with Elizabeth Dickinson, the senior analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, about the conflict and what role the United States could play in helping to de-escalate and end the fighting.

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On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Nada Bakos, an FPRI Senior Fellow and former CIA analyst, about her book, The Targeter, and what lessons can be learned from the effort to target Zarqawi and applied to dealing with Islamic State after the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

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Turkey's acquisition of a Russian made S-400 air defense system appears inevitable. To discuss the Russian side of this story, Aaron speaks with Rob Lee, a former Marine and PhD candidate at King's College, London. The conversation explores the state of the Russian defense industry, the structure of the S-400 deal with Turkey, and potential Turkish-Russian aerospace cooperation after the S-400 is delivered.

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On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Ariane Tabatabai, an associate political scientist at RAND, to discuss Iran's relationship with various non-state actors in the Middle East, and how the Islamic Republic leverages these relationships to achieve foreign and military policy goals in the region.

Related Materials:

Iran Seeks to Cement Legitimacy of Shia Militias http://bit.ly/2WvmNcq
Triple-Axis: Iran's Relations with Russia and China https://amzn.to/2XcfVgY

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Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash.


Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:

"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR

"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion"
http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1

"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"
http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI

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What is happening in Libya? Who are the key actors, which countries back which militias, and how has the Trump administration handled the recent surge in violence in Libya's capital city? On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Libya watcher and FPRI contributor Yousuf Eltagouri about the latest in the civil war.

Read More:

Haftar’s Final Play: Operation Flood of Dignity and the Fight for Tripoli : http://bit.ly/2Galcyw
Trump’s Embrace of Haftar Will Reignite Libya’s Proxy War: http://bit.ly/2GEWNT8

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What is the future of northeastern Syria? After two days of talks in Erbil, Michael Stephens, a Research Fellow for Middle East studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London, sits down with Aaron to talk about Syria’s northeast, the future of the Kurdish movement, the role of Turkey, and great power politics.

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Turkish voters went to the polls on 31 March, casting votes for local elected leaders. The outcome in Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey's two largest cities, have rocked Turkish politics, and galvanized the political opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). To discuss the election, Aaron speaks with Selim Koru, an analyst at TEPAV, a Turkish think tank in Ankara.

Related Links:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/turkey-erdogan-election-defeat.html

https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/11/the-resiliency-of-turkey-russia-relations/

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The United States and Turkey remain at odds over Ankara's purchase of a Russian S-400 air and missile defense system. The time to resolve American and Turkish concerns about this issue is running out, and the stakes for diplomatic failure will have repercussions for the bilateral relationship, the Russian role in the region, and could impact NATO. In this week's episode, Aaron discusses the S-400 issue, potential American sanctions, and the potential denial of the F-35 to the Turkish Air Force.

Related links:

1. The Russian Missile That Could End The U.S.-Turkish Alliance: http://bit.ly/2UJxVhK
2. Turkey risks US ire over Russia air defence deal: https://on.ft.com/2Y9MT2y
3. 'Not serious': Turkey dismisses US pressure on Patriot missile deal as deadline looms:
http://bit.ly/2Fr0SK6
4. U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey: https://reut.rs/2UPIhN8

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