Cheap Talk returns from a COVID-induced hiatus: online prediction markets; already-obsolete election takes; US support for Ukraine with a new Congress; domestic politics and international affairs; remembering Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter; Russia’s retreat from Kherson; South Korea recovers a North Korean missile; and Marcus was anticipating a red wave

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The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus agrees that countries shouldn’t use nuclear weapons

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Further reading:

Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers. Free Press.

Yuen Foong Khong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press.

Allegations of cheating in chess; how to go about cheating in chess (but you shouldn’t do it); a questionable analogy to face-to-face diplomacy; how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects international chess; looking into Putin’s soul; and Marcus shares his chess journey

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Escalation management; sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline; signals of Russian resolve; what the end of the war in Ukraine looks like; backing Putin into a corner; US strategic ambiguity toward Russia and China; Iran protests; and Marcus confesses he is not a military strategy guy

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The long-awaited season premiere of Cheap Talk: The origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; did Putin make a mistake; would Ukrainian nuclear weapons have prevented a war; who is deterring whom; and Marcus comes up with a final exam question

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A Cheap Talk emergency podcast: Russia invades Ukraine and Marcus swears off predictions for a while

The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work

Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey

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Further reading:

“Virtual Reality Emerges in International Exchanges in Egypt – A Glimpse into the Future.” 2021. US Department of State Dipnote. https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/virtual-reality-emerges-in-international-exchanges-in-egypt-a-glimpse-into-the-future/

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2020. “How to Cook a Spatchcocked Turkey: The Fastest, Easiest Thanksgiving Turkey.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/how-to-spatchcock-cook-turkey-thanksgiving-fast-easy-way-spatchcocked

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2018. “Herb-Roasted Turkey With Stuffing.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/the-food-lab-thanksgiving-special-herb-roasted-turkey-with-stuffing (On how to safely cook stuffing in the turkey.)

J. Kenji Lopez-Alt. 2021. “The Importance of Resting Meat.” Serious Eats. https://www.seriouseats.com/how-to-have-juicy-meats-steaks-the-food-lab-the-importance-of-resting-grilling (“For a 12 to 15 pound turkey roasted at high temperatures, a rest of at least 20 to 30 minutes before carving is recommended.”)

The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear deal; and Marcus comes reasonably close to pronouncing Greta Thunberg’s name correctly

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Pronunciation guide:

On the Cuyahoga river, see “Letters: Cuyahoga River.” 2009. All Things Considered. National Public Radio. (https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105828999)

On Greta Thunberg, see “Greta Thunberg Wins Alternative Nobel.” 2019. Bloomberg QuickTake. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUJhi6D6kJk)

Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy.

Further reading:

John J. Mearsheimer. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics.” Foreign Affairs.

Matthew Kroenig. 2018. The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy: Why Strategic Superiority Matters. Oxford University Press.

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