China Observers

In September parliamentary elections, pro-Russia leftist populist SMER-SD led by former PM Robert Fico secured victory, taking the lead over the liberal Western-oriented Progressive Slovakia (PS). SMER-SD managed to form a coalition with Peter Pellegrini's HLAS-SD, a social-democratic party that split from SMER-SD, and the Slovak National Party (SNS). During his time in opposition, Fico has undergone a radical transformation, emerging as a strong Eurosceptic and critic of the US. Many fear that Fico will shift the country’s foreign policy towards the East while aligning with Orbán on approach towards both Beijing and Moscow.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created a momentum for Georgia to become a major transit hub as both the EU and China are looking to diversify their trade routes away from Russia. Over the past decade, Tbilisi and Beijing have deepened their economic ties. At the end of July 2023, China and Georgia announced an upgrade in bilateral relations to a strategic partnership. While China is seeking to expand its presence in the South Caucusus, Tbilisi might be using the partnership with China to grant concessions from Brussels ahead of the EU's decision on the country's candidacy for membership.

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China’s tacit approval for the Russian invasion of Ukraine is significantly shaping both the Polish public opinion on China as well as the political and business elite's perception of China. Although views still diverge among different actors and political parties. Geopolitical shifts underway with the US and China also played a role in shaping Sino-Polish relations. Furthermore, the growing perception that NATO’s eastern flank as a theater of war and East Asian geopolitical theaters are merging constitutes a source of concern for Warsaw.

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China is among the biggest global importers of all the Western Balkans extractive exports. China’s interest in the region's extractive and raw materials industries is related to its overall need for certain raw materials as they are crucial in supporting the country's manufacturing sector, fueling economic growth, and supporting technological advancements across various industries. While exports and investments in the extractive sector do help the local economies, the overreliance on extractive exports from polluting industries, which deplete natural resources and have a low value-added component in the bilateral trade relationship, is a reason for concern. Moreover, some Chinese projects seem to exploit structural weaknesses related to rule of law and good governance, as seen especially in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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China's special diplomatic mission is touring Kyiv, Warsaw, Paris, Berlin and Moscow in a stated mission to search for a political solution to the war in Ukraine. However, a number of Central and Eastern European leaders have expressed doubts about China's credibility as a peacemaker. This has been further exacerbated by the recent diplomatic scandal of Lu Shaye who questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet countries. Just a few days after the Chinese ambassador's controversial interview, Xi Jinping spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the first time since the beginning of the invasion. China’s position on the war in Ukraine as well as the Sino-Russian partnership has been under increased scrutiny and will remain the main factor shaping the relations between China and Europe.

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Recently, Honduras broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan opening the door to establishing official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. Taiwan thus lost a ninth diplomatic ally since the current President, Tsai Ing-wen, came to power in 2016, leaving the island state with only 13 sovereign official partners. While Taiwan's international recognition is shrinking, its parliamentary diplomatic ties with like-minded partners are burgeoning. In March, Taiwan welcomed the largest-ever Czech delegation to the island led by the Czech Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies and US House Speaker McCarthy became the highest US official to meet with a Taiwanese leader on domestic soil since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with China in 1979. A new model for Taiwan's engagement with the world is thus in the shaping.

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Building up on the previous parliamentary delegations to the island, speaker of Czech Parliament’s lower house, Markéta Adamová Pekarová, is arriving in Taiwan today. Despite protests from the Chinese embassy in Prague, she is heading the country’s largest-ever delegation to the island consisting of political representatives, entrepreneurs and scientists. While the visit has been planned for a long time, it comes soon after the election of the new president, Petr Pavel, who demonstrated his pro-Taiwan stance by his post-election call with the Taiwanese president. Czech-Taiwanese ties are thus in for a major political boost.

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After three years of self-imposed isolation, China has opened up to the world. Xi Jinping has come back to the diplomatic stage and we have seen a renewal of high-level visits. In recent weeks, Beijing has toned down its ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ and Chinese officials have been trying to find ways to reinvigorate relations with Europe. However, experts have warned that China's charm offensive should not be mistaken for a fundamental reset in China's foreign policy. There remain numerous points of contention between China and Europe, most prominently Beijing's tacit support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Eastern Europeans’ deepening ties with Taiwan are also likely to further complicate the relationship. China-EU ties in 2023 will thus be dominated by uncertainty and a risk of further deterioration.

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China has positioned itself as a member of the Global South family and has poured billions of dollars into building infrastructure in Africa and Southeast Asia to increase its clout in these regions and popularize its authoritarian development model. China's ability to leverage its influence in the Global South has been reflected in the voting patterns of the developing countries in various multilateral bodies. The US and Europe are struggling to compete with China in the global connectivity and infrastructure race.

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In recent years, risks related to scientific collaboration with China have received more attention. There are growing fears over unwanted technology transfers, breaches of academic freedom, and concerns about ethical norms in research collaboration with China. However, research institutions and universities are often not well equipped to address these challenges. As a result, national governments have developed measures to safeguard their Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) sectors. Policymakers are in search of solutions that strike a balance between protecting academic freedom and tapping into opportunities of cooperating with Chinese partners while strengthening knowledge security.

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