China Observers

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many have tried to draw a parallel between Ukraine and Taiwan. While it is true that both countries are threatened by a great power in their immediate neighborhood, there are stark differences between their geographic positions as well as the larger geopolitical context. Despite significant differences between the two countries, there are a few lessons that can be learned from the conflict for the Taiwanese. Heightened tensions between China and Taiwan also have profound implications for Japan’s security environment and influence Sino-Japanese relations. Finally, the developments in the Taiwan Strait coupled with Sino-Russian partnership without limits also present an opportunity to explore new avenues for Japan-Europe security cooperation.

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China’s 20th National Communist Party Congress is set to be a major event for China's politics as Xi is heading towards securing another five years as paramount leader. It remains unclear who will remain, be promoted, or retire from the leading party bodies. The composition of the new leadership will unveil the strength of Xi's faction within the party. He will strive to surround himself with loyal party cadres as he needs to further cement his power at times when China's government faces many domestic and international challenges including prolonged lockdowns resulting from zero-covid policies, property sector crisis, Russian war in Ukraine as well as Sino-American tensions over Taiwan. The outcome of the Congress will indicate China’s political direction for the next five years.

China is a unique actor in the field of Science, Technology and innovation. Not only it has declared its goal to become a technology superpower by 2049 but it is also pouring massive financial resources into achieving it. While the Western European countries have become more aware of the risks associated with the scientific collaboration with China have introduced risk mitigation measures, Central European researchers downplay the attractiveness of the research in Central Europe for China and lack awareness of STI goals and priorities.

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India has found itself in a difficult position after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has been a long-standing partner for India in multilateral fora but also in terms of defense cooperation, playing a key role in India’s national security. More broadly, Russia has been seen as a potential balancer of the rising power of China which has threatened India’s interest in the region. At the same time, the growing ties of India with Western partners, including via increasingly closer security cooperation within Quad, have been tested by India’s unwillingness to directly condemn Russia. Jagannath Panda joins this edition of the podcast, to talk about the factors behind India’s position and its broader views of the security environment in the Indo-Pacific and ties with China.

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the Indo-Pacific was one of the most prominent focuses pushed by politicians from Brussels to Berlin to Paris and beyond. After France, Germany and the Netherlands released their own strategies for the region between 2018 and 2020, the overall EU and Central European nations like Poland and the landlocked Czech Republic has vocalized their own aims. From trade ties with Taiwan, healthcare pacts with India, and defensively minded programs led by France, there is plenty to peruse in terms of EU policymakers' rhetoric.

While the crisis in Ukraine is rightfully attracting attention at present, the apparent "no limits" partnership between Beijing and Moscow could draw the focus of EU officials to the Indo-Pacific again sooner rather than later. To discuss the importance of the region, the aims of key actors in the region within and outside the EU, and the augmented calculus of EU Indo-Pacific aims as war reaches the bloc's borders, Antoine Bondaz joins this important episode.

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While opaque statements from Chinese officials and abstentions at the UN have kept Moscow at arm's length amid the invasion of Ukraine, a joint statement by  Vladimir Putin and  Xi Jinping that proclaimed alignment on key issues like Taiwan and NATO still stokes caution among onlookers of the Sino-Russian relationship, especially within the CEE region. Further still, China has recently made statements to the effect that its cooperation with Russia has "no limits." 

This cooperation has already manifested in terms of information warfare, with China outwardly pushing Russian propaganda related to claims about US biolabs in Ukraine. Further, Beijing has repeatedly expressed support for Russia's security interests, declaring that the West and the expansion of NATO are responsible for the war, having “pushed Russia to the wall.” At the same time, China vehemently rejects sanctions against Russia, even if it can be expected to adhere to them to some extent, careful of avoiding direct damage to its own interests. Moscow has even apparently requested assistance in the form of arms sales from Beijing, though this appears to perhaps be a bridge Beijing is not yet ready to cross, despite its "no-limit" proclamation.

As the conflict escalates however, China may be forced to move from its ambiguous and often self-contradictory stances. To illuminate the murky relationship, a special double episode is in store featuring experts on both China and Russia from the MapInfluenCE project.

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On the sidelines of the Beijing Olympics, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met for the 38th time, issuing a joint statement that may well become a major milestone in bilateral ties. The lone CEE President in attendance upon this momentous occasion was Polish President Andrzej Duda, who know finds his nation dealing with an influx of refugees and a potential security crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Worse yet for the Polish leader, China was apparently cognizant of Russia's designs upon its neighboring nation even as Duda attended the games. 

As the status of Sino-Russian ties remains somewhat uncertain and the potential for military aid by China to Russia now becomes a serious threat, Alicja Bachulska joins the podcast to offer the Polish perspective on the apparent "new era" in international relations that both Beijing and Moscow appear emboldened to pursue, a crucial viewpoint given this is making a significant impact quite close to Poland's borders and, as Bachulska points out, in the information space on home soil.

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While purported to be an apolitical showcase of athletics, free from the troubles of the present geopolitical climate, the Beijing Olympics appear to be off to an inauspicious start even before the opening ceremony. 

Leading up to the games, several countries including the US, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Belgium, and Denmark, as well as CEE nations like Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have announced a diplomatic boycott of the games. Further, New Zealand, Sweden, The Netherlands, Slovenia, and Austria have backed away from sending representation on COVID grounds. 

As such, state propaganda that most definitely sought to promote the positive view of China at a pivotal point in its history will be diminished. As the games kick-off, the presentation amidst the political overhang looks as though it may be just as interesting to observe as the athletics itself. Malin Oud, head of the Raoul Wallenberg Institute's Stockholm office and Team Leader of its Economic Globalization and Human Rights thematic area joins the podcast to outline all of the issues and implications.

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Via the 16+1 platform, the Belt and Road, the Digital Silk Road, and more, there is no shortage of Chinese investment initiatives touching the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. This includes infrastructure projects dotting the Western Balkans, data centers in Hungary, and significant FDI directed at strategically important EU nations like Poland. Over their life span, these investments have been met with both adulation and excoriation. 

Indeed, many of the projects that were once welcomed as life-saving investments, adding to much needed FDI inflows in the wake of the Great Recession and European debt crisis. Yet, especially as investment is wielded as a coercive instrument, many European partners are now increasingly skeptical of Chinese investment, especially in light of the political price tags now clearly attached.

As such, assessing China's incentives and aims for investment in the CEE region are of paramount importance. That task will be tackled in the latest Voice for CHOICE podcast.

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While it has faded from the popular discourse a bit in recent months, the turn of the year will quickly catapult Central and Eastern European nations to another meeting with the China via the recently downsized 16+1 mechanism. 

The upcoming convening of nations is certainly due to attract attention as the withdrawal from the format by Lithuania and lower level representation via numerous states now inching closer to Taiwan has thrown the format into turmoil. However, the format is not entirely unique and there are numerous lessons that CEE China-watchers can draw from China's broader efforts to court nations on the international periphery and broader global south. Further, China will now have to compete for the attention of CEE nations with other formats, a major discussion of the ensuing podcast.

To observe this broader picture, Jakub Jakóbowski, senior fellow with the OSW China Program and coordinator of the  Connectivity in Eurasia project, joins the latest episode. 

Make the right CHOICE and tune in!

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