On this special episode, risk analyst Chuck Watson returns to discuss the current state of the conflict in Ukraine and the potential for escalation. With the conflict centered around resource control, cultural clashes, and political posturing - will European countries now push to keep the United States involved with the conflict? More, are we seeing the full picture from the perspective of western media? Who is really winning this 'open secret war' and what is the context behind the various realities of the players in this conflict? Are there still peaceful, stable options that maneuver us away from open war and what would those mean for the rest of the world? About Chuck Watson Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.  Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0CeoLYQGUF0 More details, and show notes: www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/114-chuck-watson 

Chuck Watson: "NATO in Ukraine: from Proxy to Participants”

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens explores money, energy, economy, and the environment with world experts and leaders to understand how everything fits together, and where we go from here.

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Government

Earth Sciences

(Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2024)   Show Summary:  On this episode, Nate is joined by climate physicist Levke Caesar for a comprehensive overview of the  Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its connections to broader planetary systems. Amid a complex and heavily interconnected climate system, the AMOC is a powerful force for regulating temperature between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres along the Atlantic Ocean - yet it’s estimated to have  slowed down by about 15% over the last few decades. What are the possible domino effects of this slowing oceanic powerhouse at a regional and global scale? How well do we understand what drives the AMOC, its cyclical patterns, and connections with other currents? More importantly, how does the AMOC interact with other biospheric mechanisms that have shaped our stable, life-supporting planetary home? About Levke Caesar: Levke Caesar is a climate physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, mainly known for her studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its pivotal role in the climate system. Her research primarily focuses on the past, present, and future evolution of the AMOC and its intricate interactions within the North Atlantic region. Caesar's seminal work on the historical evolution of the AMOC has been featured in prestigious journals such as Nature and Nature Geoscience, garnering hundreds of citations. Since October 2023, she has assumed the role of scientific lead for the newly launched Planetary Boundary Science Initiative (PBScience) at PIK. Show Notes Watch this video episode on Youtube 00:00 - Intro 1:59 - Levke’s Background 4:29 - What is the AMOC? 10:45 - AMOC Risks 15:25 - Ocean Salinity 20:47 - Three Potential Scenarios 31:11 - Canfield Ocean 36:46 - Effects in Europe and Globally 45:31 - Public Awareness 49:02 - Measuring AMOC 52:40 - The Gulf Stream 56:24 - AMOC Feedbacks 1:00:18 - Scientific Consensus 1:04:53 - Levke’s Work 1:10:02 - Interventions and Suggestions 1:16:52 - How to Live a Normal Life 1:21:38 - Personal Advice 1:26:35 - What Would You Do with a Magic Wand? 1:27:36 - Closing Thoughts

Levke Caesar: "Oceanic Slowdown: Decoding the AMOC"

Greetings! As we look ahead to the future of our podcast and organization, we hope to continue bringing you the most relevant information, guests, and conversations surrounding The Great Simplification. To that end, we’re asking for your feedback. We have put together a brief survey that includes questions about what issues, content, and worldviews are most important to you.   Take the Survey → https://forms.gle/egpgLxVHpiB27Kv28  We’ve also set up a Discord community as a way to connect TGS viewers and listeners (who span across the globe). 

Special Request & Community Announcement

On this episode, Nate is joined by ER doctor, nuclear power advocate, and podcast host Chris Keefer for a broad ranging conversation including the basics of nuclear energy, how he engages with opposing opinions, and hypotheticals for a future medical system. Coming from a broad background, Chris understands what it means to have a human to human conversation and put together the pieces of our systemic puzzle in a clear and compelling way. What role could nuclear play for our future energy needs - and how are different countries making use of it today? How can we prioritize the health and safety of people under energetic and resource constraints? Most of all, how do we listen to others that we don’t agree with - regardless of the issue - to foster the diverse perspectives necessary to navigate the coming challenges of the human predicament?  About Chris Keefer: Chris Keefer MD, CCFP-EM is a Staff Emergency Physician at St Joseph's Health Centre and a Lecturer for the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the University of Toronto. He is also an avid advocate for expanding nuclear power as the President of Canadians for Nuclear Energy and Director of Doctors for Nuclear Energy. Additionally, he is the host of the Decouple Podcast exploring the most pressing questions in energy, climate, environment, politics, and philosophy.  PDF Transcript Show Notes  00:00 - Chris Keefer works + info, Decouple Podcast, Canadians for Nuclear Energy 04:45 -  Egalitarian hunter gatherer society,  infant mortality 05:12 - Bow drill fire 07:10 - Yukon 07:30 - Humans and livestock outweigh wild mammals 50:1,  not in the Yukon 08:10 - Dr. Paul Farmer 08:45 - Most humans use to work in agriculture,  ~15% now involved in healthcare 10:56 -  Ontario nuclear power,  one of lowest electric grid in the world 12:01 - Justin Trudeau 12:24 -  Simcoe Clinic, Canadian Center for Victims of Torture 14:01 - World population over time 14:36 -  Paleodemography 14:59 -  Degrowth 15:19 - Infant mortality in developed countries 15:55 -  Tight link between energy, materials and GDP 20:54 -  Duck and Cover Drills 21:05 -  Environmental Movement and Nuclear 21:21 -  Nagasaki bomb radiation injuries 21:49 -  High dose radiation is deadly, low dose radiation less so 21:05 -  Strontium-90 found in the teeth of babies 21:10 -  Atmospheric weapons testing ban 22:33 - Fukushima meltdown,  health impacts are negligible 23:09 -  20,000 people died from the Fukushima earthquake and following tsunami  23:47 -  Fukushima contaminated water has been filtered out and is safe 24:24 -  How radiation is measured 26:02 - Health effects from alcohol 26:16 -  Drinking culture in the U.S. 27:22 - Nuclear energy density, land footprint 28:23 -  Best nuclear applications and limitations 30:01 -  Those who live in nuclear powered areas fare better 30:33 -  Price of nuclear energy over the lifetime 30:45 -  Nuclear power in France 31:18 -  Canada energy history,  center for nuclear research outside of the Manhattan Project 32:23 -  1000 people die prematurely every year due to coal 33:25 -  Ontario population 33:38 - Candu Reactors 34:15 - Levelized cost of electricity,  skewed with renewables 37:01 -  Lazard Graphs 38:09 -  Mark Jacobson 41:07 -  Carbon emissions by power source 41:23 -  Lifespan of nuclear plants 43:11 - Land use change impacts 43:31 -  Nuclear and job creation 46:05 - US spending on military vs healthcare 48:49 - Meiji Restoration 49:33 - Vaclav Smil 50:42 -  AI electricity demands 50:55 - AI risks 51:29 -  Meredith Angwin  52:42 - Nuclear fuel 53:10 -  46% of uranium enrichment happens in Russia 54:15 -  Known Uranium Reserves 54:25 - Haber Bosch  54:55 -  Breeder Reactors 55:42 -  Uranium in seawater 56:14 - Slow vs Fast Neutrons,  fertile elements 57:04 -  Sodium Fast Reactor 58:45 -  China built a nuclear reactor in less than 4 years 1:00:05 -  Defense in depth 1:01:11 -  EMP, solar flare 1:01:30 - HBO’s Chernobyl,  wildlife thriving in chernobyl area 1:03:13 - Death toll from radiation in Chernobyl 1:05:13 - Scientific literature and confirmation bias 1:08:12 - Chernobyl Children’s International 1:08:44 - Genome sequencing of highest exposures to radiation from chernobyl 1:09:09 - Germline mutations if the father smokes 1:10:02 - The Great Simplification animated video 1:10:32 - Peak Oil 1:12:10 -  Complex 6-continent supply chains 1:12:30 - I, Pencil 1:15:19 - Nuclear Fusion 1:16:24 - Lawrence Livermore 1:17:45 - Tomas Murphy, Galactic Scale Energy 1:18:11 -  Small Modular Reactor 1:19:26 -  Cost saving in nuclear comes from scaling 1:19:34 - Wright’s Law,  economies of multiples 1:23:33 -  Biden administration policies and advances on nuclear 1:24:00 -  Non-profit industrial complex 1:24:24 -  The size of the US non-profit economy 1:24:44 - Sierra Club, anti-nuclear history 1:25:14 - Rocky Mountain Club 1:27:15 - Hans Rosling 1:27:32 -  Somalia infant mortality rate 1:27:42 - Cuba 1990s economic shock and response 1:27:42 - Vandana Shiva + TGS Episode 1:30:27 -  Cognitive Dissonance 1:31:45 - Jonathan Haidt + TGS Podcast, Righteous Mind 1:32:48 -  Fatality and hospitalization statistics for COVID for first responders 1:33:22 - Truckers protest in Ottawa 1:34:15 -  The problem with superchickens  1:36:54 -  How social media tries to keep you online 1:37:12 - Paleopsychology 1:37:55 - Tristan Harris and Daniel Schmachtenberger on Joe Rogan 1:39:45 - John Kitzhaber + TGS Episode, Robert Lustig + TGS Episode 1:39:55 -  US healthcare 20% of GDP,  50% of the world’s medical prescriptions are in the US  1:41:55 - Superutilizers 1:42:37 - Cuban medical system,  spending, life expectancy, infant mortality 1:43:06 -  Cuban export of pharmaceuticals 1:44:08 -  Preventative medicine, chronic disease management 1:44:25 -  Cuban doctor to person ratio, rest of the world 1:48:47 -  Social determinants of health 1:49:20 -  Cement floor reducing illness in Mexico 1:50:03 - Hygiene hypothesis 1:50:28 -  Zoonotic disease and human/animal cohabitation 1:50:50 - Roundworm life cycle 1:52:38 -  Acceptable miss rates 1:53:16 -  Cancer screening effectiveness  1:53:58 -  Drugs produced from nuclear plant byproducts 1:58:18 - Timothy O’Leary 2:02:28 - Superabundance 2:02:40 - Julian Simons and Paul Ehrlich bet 2:02:15 - Malthusian 2:06:08 -  Pickering Plant Watch this video episode on YouTube

Chris Keefer: "Empowering the Future: from Nuclear to Podcasting"

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by Mohit Trivedi, Abhishek Thakore, and Kejal Savla, three NGO leaders in India active in driving social and cultural change using the perspective of the Indic Mind. As a subcontinent, the Indic people have faced crisis after crisis, yet have still held onto the optimism and compassion foundational to their culture. Submerged in this history and context, there is so much for the West to learn from those active in the metacrisis space in India. How has India’s unique history shaped the way they approach coming resource constraints, as they prepare to experience disproportionate global heating and extreme weather? Why is it important to hold paradoxes that look beyond the black and white, towards more complex and nuanced perspectives of the world? How could community be at the center of the responses to converging challenges we face - and what would it mean to practice relationality across all areas of one’s life? Mohit Trivedi is the co-found of 2069 Ecosystems. He is also a learning designer, facilitator and movement weaver, with a passion for spiritual and socio-political transformation. With a background in psychology, nursing, alternative education and social entrepreneurship, Mohit is aspiring to have harmony in his relationships with power, money, work and connections with others. He is actively stewarding a pan-Indian movement bringing together various individuals and organizations who are looking to practice collective leadership and decentralization, and nurture the next generation of spiritual and socio-political leaders. Abhishek Thakore is a serial social entrepreneur and a systems change expert with over two decades of experience. As the founder of The Blue Ribbon Movement, he has created an ecosystem of initiatives aimed at building youth leadership, civic engagement, and thriving cultures across the social sector. An MBA from IIM Bangalore and a Senior Fellow of Bhoomi College, he uses his diverse expertise for serving humanity's evolutionary purpose and responding to the metacrisis. Kejal Savla is the co-founder and CEO of Wisdom Tree- an organization that works with non-profits across rural and urban areas to work on organizational challenges through culture and leadership. She works with the integration of psychology, spirituality, and management to tap into organization's soul-force to reach its highest potential. Kejal is a weaver of social change for humans and systems to co-exist non-violently. She comes with a decade-long experience of working in the social space with youth on deep democracy, local problem-solving, and 100% consent-based decision-making. For Show Notes and More visit: thegreatsimplification.com/episode/reality-roundtable-8 To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/XQbP4UJaiCw   

The Indic Mind: An Approach to the Metacrisis | Reality Roundtable 8

On this episode, Nate is joined by philosopher and educator Zak Stein to discuss the current state of education and development for children during a time of converging crises and societal transformation. As the pace of life continues to accelerate - including world-shaking technological developments - our schools struggle to keep pace with changes in cultural expectations. What qualities are we encouraging in a system centered on competition and with no emphasis on creating agency or community participation? How is unfettered technology and artificial intelligence influencing youth - and what should parents, adults, and teachers be doing in response? What could the future of education look like if guided by true teacherly authority with the aim to create well-rounded, stable young humans with a sense of belonging and purpose in their communities?  About Zak Stein:  Dr. Zak Stein is a philosopher of education, as well as a Co-founder of the Center for World Philosophy and Religion. He is also the Co-founder of Civilization Research Institute, the Consilience Project, and Lectica, Inc. He is the author of dozens of published papers and two books, including Education in a Time Between Worlds.  PDF Transcript Show Notes 00:00 - Zak Stein works + Info, Civilization Research Institute,  Education in a Time Between Worlds, Center for World Philosophy and Religion,  First Principles and First Values  03:24 - No Child Left Behind 03:56 - Joseph Tainter + TGS episode 03:53 -  Iatrogenic  05:30 - Daniel Schmachtenberger (TGS Episodes), Ken Wilbur, Marc Gafney 16:01 -  Effects of screens and social media on teen mental health 16:54 - Marshall McLuhan 17:20 - The importance of adult boundary and limit setting for children 18:17 - How social media affects the brain 19:06 -  The rise of ADHD in the 90s and effects on education - a timeline 19:58 -  Hypercompetitive primary education systems 20:20 - High level of stress and cheating in primary education 22:28 -  Scandinavian school systems 26:27 -  Cold war effects on the education system 26:35 - Sputnik 27:25 -  Tech elites don’t give their kids tech 28:35 - Elite overproduction, Peter Turchin 34:10 - Your Unique Self  37:28 - Iain McGilchrist + TGS Episode 38:02 - Moral Relativism 43:27 - Foundations of advertising  47:07 -  Negatives of standardized testing 47:22 -  Donald T. Cambell - Campbell’s law 48:57 -  Nature vs Nurture Debate 49:20 - Cooperation and competition 52:10 -  Effects of a competitive school environment 55:02 -  The effects of an above-and-beyond teacher 55:42 - Legitimate teacherly authority 59:55 -  Importance of the environment in the first 5 years of life 1:02:20 - John Dewey 1:10:31 -  The best way to learn is to teach 1:11:40 - David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs 1:15:25 -  How standardized testing increased high education access 1:16:08 - Civilian Conservation Corp,  Lawrence A. Cremin 1:17:02 - New Deal 1:22:07 - Risks around artificial intelligence 1:24:58 - Rise of relationships with AI 1:28:41 - First Chatbot ELIZA 1:30:01 -  Electricity use of AI 1:37:30 -  The Future of Human Nature 1:41:19 - Peak Oil 1:42:29 -  Mental Health Crisis 1:46:35 -  Correlation of COVID with IQ loss Watch this video episode on YouTube

Chuck Watson: "NATO in Ukraine: from Proxy to Participants”

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