CIO Weekly Investment Outlook

Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Chief Investment Strategist, outlines what the Fed's recent interest rate cut means for upcoming central bank actions and economic developments.

He argues that recent data points, including relatively low initial jobless claims and robust retail sales, had pointed more towards a 25 bps cut. While the bigger cut by 50 bps was arguably not necessary, it is certainly helping to prevent a recession and facilitates a soft landing.

In the months to come, Dirk expects volatility as a result of the upcoming US elections and incoming macro data. In terms of equities "we keep building our barbell strategy with mega large caps on the one side and small caps on the other."

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.”

And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be paying increasing attention to the U.S. elections over the coming weeks, as well as the coming corporate earnings season. “In this environment we will see frequent ‘rotations’ back and forth”, Dirk says, as some interested market participants wait on the sidelines to buy the dips in certain sectors.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction."

Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but investors are also likely to be tuned in to the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The race, Christian says, is "so close at this point in time, I think even the slightest mistake in a TV debate could have significant implications."

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Summer is nearly over, and with 2nd quarter earnings reports wrapped up, investors are now setting their expectations for corporate results from the 3rd quarter, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “We have this time where investors are asking what's next”, Dirk says, noting that “We think it will, again, be a quite supportive earnings season.”

Key data reports this week will shed light on the U.S. labour market. “It's not only payroll Friday, it's the JOLTS report” of turnover in the labour market, Dirk says. Recent downward revisions to jobs growth from earlier in the year will likely have markets particularly attuned, especially as it will be the last monthly report before the Federal Reserve makes its next decision on interest rates.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Following the Jackson Hole conference of central bankers last week, as well as the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, investors are now focused on next month’s policy decision – which could include an interest-rate cut. “It’s the rates market that is pretty much dictating how the risky assets do”, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, in this week’s podcast. “Some of the recent data has been quite noisy and, when you start looking into that, it makes a lot of sense for the Fed to start cutting rates."

He also notes that markets are starting to pay more attention to U.S. politics, and that this may have played a role in recent volatility. In the week ahead, key reports to watch will include durable goods orders, earnings guidance from a major name in artificial intelligence, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at the end of the week.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

This week's Jackson Hole conference will be in focus for investors because "we can discuss what central bankers have in store," says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He also says that while markets have shown some signs of calming after a bout of sharp moves, he expects volatility could remain a factor for some time.

"There are of course important things happening in the eurozone as well," he adds, pointing to some hesitancy at the European Central Bank to aggressively cut interest rates amid "abundant" price risks. Data on inflation and negotiated wages there could have an impact on expectations for policy decisions to come.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com 

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121 

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, explains what investors should be watching for after a recent stretch of volatility in markets. “Volatility has come down a little bit, which I think is positive”, Christian says, while noting that some of the key considerations remain: the strength of the global economy, the ongoing corporate earnings season, and the direction of central-bank policy.

Christian says this week’s U.S. inflation figures will be “very important, because the Fed ultimately needs to look at inflation, what’s the development there.” But he also said that geopolitical risks are on investors’ minds, and that a possible escalation in the Middle East could bring volatility back up. “That is a very important thing to watch.”

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com 

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121 

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses the Federal Reserve’s pivot for a rate cut this year, and data points leading to September. 

For Japan, Stefanie says the Bank of Japan (BoJ) confirmed its second rate hike for this year (up from 0-0.1% to 0.25%), and also announced quantitative easing.

All eyes are now on next week’s wage data, which will test repriced assumptions for BoJ’s next steps.

Australia and India’s central banks are due to meet this week, and the CIO expects the RBA and RBI to hold steady this month.

In China, recent data disappointments have shown continued weakness so this week’s important trade and inflation data will be even more closely monitored.

Stefanie also discussed the outcome of China’s Third Plenum which committed to long term structural changes, but continues to link these to its short-term goal of achieving 5% growth this year. For instance, by launching a 300bn RMB extended programme to encourage domestic investor trading in consumables.

Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com 

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121 

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses repricing in markets and monetary policy. In considering a September rate cut, Stefanie says the Federal Reserve needs to balance economic growth, inflation, and job market risks when it meets this week.

Europe is also repricing in anticipation for when second quarter GDP data is announced this week, which may show slower growth. However, an inflation surprise, with data due mid-week, could lower the probability of the ECB’s next rate cut in September.

For Japan, Stefanie says markets have been repricing on expectations that the Bank of Japan could hike rates in July. Furthermore, she sees the recent strengthening of the Japanese Yen also as linked to the easing of the US dollar, due to frontloaded rate cut expectations from the Fed and speculation the Bank of Japan may at least start to reduce bond purchases. 

For China’s Renminbi, the easing US dollar also plays a role for the People’s Bank of China. Stefanie also discusses upcoming PMI data, with early indicators pointing to a further slowdown in manufacturing data in July. But summer travel spending may boost consumer data in the months ahead.

Tune in and listen to Stefanie’s key thoughts for the week ahead.

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com 

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121 

Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, outlines what recent economic data could mean for Fed policy, and offers a view on U.S. equities as well as geopolitical considerations for investors.

An update on GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will be in the spotlight this week. But recent economic reports suggest we're getting closer to the comfort zone for the Fed to move rates. Deepak says, "The US economy is not breaking, but is bending to a somewhat slower trajectory."

Asked whether political events are reflected in market developments, Deepak says "a hundred days before the general elections, volatility tends to pick up", adding that "we're entering a somewhat challenging time."

Finally, commenting on U.S. equities, Deepak says "just like in the previous few quarters, the big focus is on big tech, because the Mag 7 are expected to grow earnings at 30% year-over-year compared to the overall index of around 9%."

For more investing insights, please visit deutschewealth.com 

In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk. 

The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany’s central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States. Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group. The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2024 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121