Coffee and Investing with Saurabh Mukherjea

Why do crises make great companies stronger? Every company faces one sooner or later. Kodak and GE could not escape theirs, and more than 85% of India's NBFCs went bust in the late 1990s. What separates the good from the great is how they tackle it.In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea and his colleague and co-author Salil Desai discuss the third trait of great companies in their book, The Art of Enduring: taking crisis head-on.When the global financial crisis hit, Tata Elxsi's clients cancelled contracts within weeks and its profits plunged. Rather than lay people off, its leaders held a candid town hall, kept their engineers and went on to win a do-or-die deal, after which revenues and profits ramped up for a decade. Divi's Labs, shut out of the US by an FDA import alert, leaned on decades of trust with big pharma customers to get the alert lifted in record time.Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:00:52 The Third Trait of Great Companies00:01:33 Why No Company Escapes a Crisis00:03:15 The Question Readers Keep Asking00:04:45 Survive, Steady, Rebuild00:08:08 Tata Elxsi's Early Struggles00:09:53 The GFC Hits Tata Elxsi00:11:24 A Candid Town Hall00:13:07 The Do-or-Die Deal00:15:21 Great Companies, Deep Drawdowns00:17:52 Divi's Labs and the FDA Import Alert00:21:07 Investing in Such FranchisesInvest with Marcellus: https://ccp.marcellus.in?utm_source=Spotify&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=HowGreatCompaniesUseCrisis&utm_product=CCP&utm_id=PodcastMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager. Discover our approach to investing here: www.marcellus.in

Divi's Laboratories could enter a market worth more than $800 billion tomorrow. It has the chemistry. It has the customers. It has refused for 35 years.Saurabh Mukherjea and his co-author Salil Desai, Marcellus' Head of Research, on why that refusal is the first trait in their new book, The Art of Enduring.Divi's makes active pharmaceutical ingredients — paracetamol is the API, Crocin is the tablet built around it — and supplies roughly 70% of the world's dextromethorphan. It will not make the tablet, because the companies that do are its customers, and it has said so in print since its 2007 annual report. From FY06 to FY25, revenue and profit after tax both grew at around 20% a year.Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:01:30 Three Traits of Enduring Companies00:02:19 Trait One: Knowing Your Core00:02:33 Why Focus Is So Hard00:04:22 Bruce Lee on the Same Kick00:04:59 Divi's Laboratories and the API Business00:06:18 70% of the World's Dextromethorphan00:06:30 Why Not Make the Tablet?00:08:20 The Cardinal Sin in Business00:12:06 Contrast Media and Nutraceuticals00:15:05 Why Focus Lifts Returns on Capital00:23:09 Investing with MarcellusInvest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.in/auth?utm_source=Spotify&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=ArtOfEnduringCoreStrengths&utm_id=PodcastMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager. Discover our approach to investing here: www.marcellus.in

If investing in talent is so obvious, why do so few companies do it?In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea speaks with Salil Desai, Marcellus' Head of Research and his co-author on The Art of Enduring, about how great companies build great talent. They unpack the two things that set firms like Titan and Bajaj Finance apart: empowerment, giving people the freedom to take risks and build new businesses, and exposure, rotating them across very different roles. They also discuss why psychological safety matters, and how a chartered accountant from Titan's finance team ended up running Fastrack.Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.in/auth?utm_source=Spotify&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=GreatCompaniesBuildGreatTalent&utm_id=PodcastMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager.

If the middle class isn't spending, who is?Official data says consumption is growing at 7.7% a year, yet FMCG volume growth is just 4–5% and smartphone volumes are shrinking. In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Rajhansa unpack the three new pillars of Indian consumption:– A booming elite, with Indians filing tax returns of ₹1 crore or more up 7x in 12 years– A middle class borrowing to spend, with household debt excluding mortgages at 32% of GDP– Government cash transfers to women of ₹1.7 lakh crore, now more than the education budgetThey also discuss how Marcellus has rebuilt its portfolios around these shifts, from private healthcare and diagnostics to manufacturing exporters and the new elite.Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.in/auth?utm_source=Spotify&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=ThreePillarsOfConsumption&utm_id=PodcastMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager.

Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.inIndia's demographic dividend has been one of the most widely used arguments for investing in Indian equities. But what happens when that demographic story starts to change?

In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Rajhansa discuss India's rapidly changing demographics and what they could mean for Indian investors.

They explore why the long-standing "young India" narrative may no longer hold, how falling fertility rates and rising age at first marriage are reshaping Indian society, why population growth is already slowing or reversing in parts of the country, and how these shifts could affect consumption, corporate earnings and equity returns.

They also discuss why investors may need to rethink portfolios built around mass consumption and consider greater exposure to premium consumption, healthcare, exports and global equities.

💡 Key Takeaways

⮞ India's Demographic Dividend Is Changing: The assumption of a steadily growing young population is no longer true, with fertility rates falling sharply across the country.

⮞ Marriage and Fertility Are Falling: Rising age at first marriage and declining fertility are changing household structures and the pace of population growth.

⮞ The Impact on Consumption: Fewer children and smaller families could change spending patterns associated with mass consumption, while increasing demand for premium and specialised consumption.

⮞ Why This Matters for Earnings: Slower population growth can affect the volume growth assumptions behind companies and portfolios that depend heavily on an expanding consumer base.

⮞ India's Demographic Shift Is Uneven: Fertility rates and population trends differ significantly across regions, creating economic and potentially political consequences for different parts of the country.

⮞ Rethinking Indian Portfolios: Investors whose portfolios rely heavily on mass consumption may need to revisit the assumptions driving expected earnings and returns.

⮞ Where Future Growth Could Come From: Premium consumption, healthcare and export-oriented businesses could become increasingly important as India's demographic profile changes.

⮞ Look Beyond India: Greater exposure to global equities can help investors participate in growth opportunities beyond India's changing demographic cycle.

🌎 Explore Global Diversification with MarcellusIndia's changing demographics could have a significant impact on the companies and sectors that drive portfolio returns. Global diversification can provide exposure to different economies, businesses and growth drivers.

Marcellus' Global Equities Fund provides access to global equities through GIFT City, allowing investors to diversify beyond Indian markets.

If you want to explore investment options from Marcellus, check: https://invest.marcellus.in/

💼 About Marcellus Investment ManagersChaptersMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager. At Marcellus, our Purpose is to make wealth creation simple and accessible by being trustworthy and transparent capital allocators.

Discover our approach to investing here: www.marcellus.in

Chapters

00:00 Coming Up
08:03 India's Changing Marriage Patterns
15:35 Education, Marriage and Fertility
20:39 India's Falling Population and Consumption
24:34 The Rise of Premium Consumption
29:42 What Investors Should Do
32:07 The Political and Economic Impact
34:25 What Investors Should Take Away

Like our philosophy? Invest with us:
https://invest.marcellus.in/auth?utm_...

Exports are up 17%, so why does almost no investor own an Indian manufacturer?

In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Nandita Rajhansa speaks with Saurabh Mukherjea, Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, about why he believes Indian exports are at the beginning of a purple patch.

For years, investors have been rewarded for being cynical about Indian manufacturing. Manufacturing has shrunk from 17% of the economy in 2010 to 12.5% today, India’s share of global merchandise trade remains just 2%, and FY26 merchandise export growth was only 1%.

Then came the turn.

India exported $174 billion of goods between April and July, up from around $148 billion a year earlier, led by engineering goods and electronics. Electronics exports alone have grown more than 10x in a decade. Even manufactured exports to China, arguably the world’s toughest market, have risen from $5.7 billion to $7.8 billion.

In this conversation, we explore the four levers behind the shift, the sectors in focus and the risks that could derail the story.

💡 Key Takeaways

⮞ The End of Dutch Disease: With IT services fading, the rupee is no longer propped up by $300–350 billion of inflows and is at its weakest in trade-weighted terms since February 2014.

⮞ Market Access, Finally: The UK trade deal went live on 15 July with zero tariffs on 99% of India’s exports, while the EU deal offers preferential access on 97%.

⮞ A Quarter of the World’s iPhones: Four years ago, India made essentially none. Today, it makes a quarter, highlighting the China+1 opportunity.

⮞ The Defence Build-Up: The West is spending around $1 trillion a year on defence and aerospace. India’s defence exports reached ₹38,000 crore in FY26, up 63% in the last couple of years.

⮞ The Synthetic Garment Opportunity: Synthetics account for 70% of global garments. With synthetic fibre now being produced in India at scale, textiles have a fighting chance, if a US trade deal comes through.

⮞ The Purana Engines Recede: Saurabh expects consumption and financials to give way to export-oriented manufacturing and private-sector provision of public services as portfolio mainstays.

⮞ What Could Go Wrong: The US could offer a sweeter deal to Vietnam or Bangladesh. Bangladesh already exports $45 billion of garments compared with India’s $15 billion.

Saurabh’s view is that as consumption and financials recede, export-oriented manufacturing could become a mainstay of Indian portfolios. Repositioning around such structural shifts has been central to Marcellus’ approach since 2018.

This thinking is reflected in the Consistent Compounders Portfolio, which includes export-oriented manufacturing companies alongside private-sector providers of public services such as healthcare.

Explore the Consistent Compounders Portfolio:
https://invest.marcellus.in/auth?utm_...

Marcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC and IFSCA registered portfolio manager.

At Marcellus, our Purpose is to make wealth creation simple and accessible by being trustworthy and transparent capital allocators.

www.marcellus.in

Characters:

00:00 Coming Up
01:05 The Exports Dichotomy
02:31 The Case Against Indian Exports
05:14 The Turnaround in Export Data
06:08 Where the Growth Is Coming From
08:16 Blip or Decadal Story?
08:40 Lever 1: The End of Dutch Disease
10:46 Lever 2: UK and EU Trade Deals
12:49 Lever 3: China Plus One
14:18 Lever 4: The West’s Defence Build-Up
16:37 Synthetic Garments and Pharma
18:38 What This Means for Portfolios
20:41 What Could Go Wrong?
23:43 How Marcellus Has Repositioned

Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.in/How do you tell a genuinely great company from one that has simply had a good decade? In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea speaks with Salil Desai — his co-author on The Art of Enduring: How Great Companies Turn Crisis into Opportunity, and Marcellus' Head of Research — about the brutal filter the two of them built to answer that question.Ten years ago, The Unusual Billionaires screened India's listed universe on a decade of data, 15% return on capital employed and 10% revenue growth. The Art of Enduring goes harder. The reference period stretches to 15 years — a stretch that took in demonetisation, GST, Donald Trump's presidency, supply chains going berserk and Covid — and every threshold moves up with it.The funnel starts with the BSE 500. Companies younger than 25 years are removed, leaving 392. Non-financial firms must then clear 15% return on capital employed in every single year of the 15 — not on average — which cuts 332 names down to 78. Median revenue growth must beat India's nominal GDP growth of roughly 12%, taking the list to about 38. Profits must grow faster than revenues, which removes six more. Financial companies face the equivalent tests on return on equity. From 500 companies, 51 survive. Saurabh and Salil discuss why Martina Navratilova rather than Djokovic is their template for greatness, why the share price is an outcome and never a filter, why five of the original seven Unusual Billionaires cleared the harder screen a decade later, and the fresh five examined in the new book — Bajaj Finance, Dr Lal PathLabs, Tata Elxsi, Titan and Divi's Laboratories.----💡 Key Takeaways⮞ Greatness Is Longevity: Navratilova won more singles and more doubles titles than any player, male or female, across a 32-year career — the first Grand Slam at 17 or 18, the last two months before her 50th birthday. Reaching the top is common; staying there is not.⮞ Time Is the Examiner: Wooden rackets to graphite, harmonium to synthesiser — a long career forces a performer through conditions they never trained for. That variety of tests is what separates skill from luck.⮞ Every Single Year, Not On Average: The 15% return on capital employed test must be met in each of the 15 years. Averages hide the bad years, and this is the filter that kills the most names.⮞ The Bar Is India Itself: Revenue growth is benchmarked to India's nominal GDP growth of about 12% over the period, on the logic that the least a business can do is grow as fast as the economy it operates in.⮞ Growth Has To Be Profitable: The final screen asks for profits growing faster than revenues, because growth alone can be bought by dumping capital into a business.⮞ Share Price Is an Outcome: Screening on stock returns selects on the result rather than the process. The companies that cleared these filters went on to beat the market handsomely — but that was the consequence, not the criterion.⮞ What the Survivors Share: Knowing their core strengths and doubling down instead of copying others; investing heavily in people through their 20s and 30s; and facing hard problems head-on, as Murali Divi did when he flew to Germany himself for raw materials and put a sample in front of big pharma within 48 hours.----Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:00:58 The Art of Enduring: The Brutal Filter00:02:00 What Makes a Company Great?00:05:45 Why Longevity Matters00:08:22 Identifying Enduring Greatness in Companies00:09:50 The 15-Year Filter00:12:45 From 500 Companies to 5000:14:30 Why Share Prices Are an Outcome00:18:00 What Enduring Companies Do Differently

Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.in/How do you tell a genuinely great company from one that has simply had a good decade? In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea speaks with Salil Desai — his co-author on The Art of Enduring: How Great Companies Turn Crisis into Opportunity, and Marcellus' Head of Research — about the brutal filter the two of them built to answer that question.Ten years ago, The Unusual Billionaires screened India's listed universe on a decade of data, 15% return on capital employed and 10% revenue growth. The Art of Enduring goes harder. The reference period stretches to 15 years — a stretch that took in demonetisation, GST, Donald Trump's presidency, supply chains going berserk and Covid — and every threshold moves up with it.The funnel starts with the BSE 500. Companies younger than 25 years are removed, leaving 392. Non-financial firms must then clear 15% return on capital employed in every single year of the 15 — not on average — which cuts 332 names down to 78. Median revenue growth must beat India's nominal GDP growth of roughly 12%, taking the list to about 38. Profits must grow faster than revenues, which removes six more. Financial companies face the equivalent tests on return on equity. From 500 companies, 51 survive. Saurabh and Salil discuss why Martina Navratilova rather than Djokovic is their template for greatness, why the share price is an outcome and never a filter, why five of the original seven Unusual Billionaires cleared the harder screen a decade later, and the fresh five examined in the new book — Bajaj Finance, Dr Lal PathLabs, Tata Elxsi, Titan and Divi's Laboratories.----💡 Key Takeaways⮞ Greatness Is Longevity: Navratilova won more singles and more doubles titles than any player, male or female, across a 32-year career — the first Grand Slam at 17 or 18, the last two months before her 50th birthday. Reaching the top is common; staying there is not.⮞ Time Is the Examiner: Wooden rackets to graphite, harmonium to synthesiser — a long career forces a performer through conditions they never trained for. That variety of tests is what separates skill from luck.⮞ Every Single Year, Not On Average: The 15% return on capital employed test must be met in each of the 15 years. Averages hide the bad years, and this is the filter that kills the most names.⮞ The Bar Is India Itself: Revenue growth is benchmarked to India's nominal GDP growth of about 12% over the period, on the logic that the least a business can do is grow as fast as the economy it operates in.⮞ Growth Has To Be Profitable: The final screen asks for profits growing faster than revenues, because growth alone can be bought by dumping capital into a business.⮞ Share Price Is an Outcome: Screening on stock returns selects on the result rather than the process. The companies that cleared these filters went on to beat the market handsomely — but that was the consequence, not the criterion.⮞ What the Survivors Share: Knowing their core strengths and doubling down instead of copying others; investing heavily in people through their 20s and 30s; and facing hard problems head-on, as Murali Divi did when he flew to Germany himself for raw materials and put a sample in front of big pharma within 48 hours.----Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:00:58 The Art of Enduring: The Brutal Filter00:02:00 What Makes a Company Great?00:05:45 Why Longevity Matters00:08:22 Identifying Enduring Greatness in Companies00:09:50 The 15-Year Filter00:12:45 From 500 Companies to 5000:14:30 Why Share Prices Are an Outcome00:18:00 What Enduring Companies Do Differently

Invest in India's leading financial companies. Explore Kings of Capital Portfolio: https://kcp.marcellus.inWhat does it take to find opportunities in one of India's most closely watched sectors?In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea speaks with his colleague Tej Shah, Portfolio Manager of Marcellus’ Kings of Capital Portfolio, about how the team invests across India’s financial services sector, and why some of the most interesting opportunities may lie beyond the obvious names.Kings of Capital is not simply a portfolio of banks and lenders. High-quality lenders make up only around a quarter of the portfolio, while a significant portion is invested in non-lending financial businesses such as asset managers, wealth managers, credit rating agencies, commodity exchanges, mutual fund distributors and financial infrastructure companies.The conversation explores how Tej and the team look for "variant perception" — situations where their assessment of a business or industry differs meaningfully from the broader market.One example is the team's investment in microfinance during the sector's 2025 downturn. While pessimism around the industry was widespread, ground-level research led the team to believe that the problems were cyclical and that stronger institutions could emerge with greater market share.Saurabh and Tej also discuss why KCP has historically maintained a low allocation to large banks and zero exposure to PSU banks and PSU NBFCs, how the team researches its 35-stock universe, and the importance of management quality, profitability, balance-sheet strength and sensible valuations.The episode also looks ahead to a potentially tougher interest-rate and credit environment — and why Tej believes that could create an environment where high-quality financial businesses and the KCP investment approach stand out.---💡 Key Takeaways⮞ Beyond Banks: Why Kings of Capital invests across lenders, insurers, asset managers, wealth managers and financial infrastructure businesses.⮞ The Variant Perception Edge: How identifying situations where the market may be excessively pessimistic can create investment opportunities.⮞ Research Beyond the Sell-Side: How KCP uses management networks, industry experts and ground-level channel checks to understand businesses.⮞ What Makes a Great Financial Business: Why profitability, sustainable growth, management quality and the ability to navigate multiple cycles matter.⮞ Valuation Discipline: Why even high-quality businesses need to be bought at sensible valuations rather than at any price.⮕ Learning from Microfinance: How research on the ground helped KCP identify an opportunity during the 2025 microfinance downturn.⮞ Preparing for Tougher Cycles: Why asset quality could become more important than margins if the interest-rate and credit cycle turns.---💼 Invest with MarcellusIf you believe long-term wealth creation comes from owning high-quality businesses through different market cycles, explore Marcellus’ Kings of Capital Portfolio.Explore Kings of Capital: https://kcp.marcellus.in---💼 About Marcellus Investment ManagersMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager. At Marcellus, our Purpose is to make wealth creation simple and accessible by being trustworthy and transparent capital allocators.Discover our approach to investing here: www.marcellus.in---Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:00:50 Kings of Capital: Beyond Lenders00:02:23 KCP’s Track Record & The First Three Years00:05:20 Finding Variant Perception00:06:45 The Microfinance Opportunity00:10:15 How KCP Researches Financial Businesses00:12:00 What KCP Looks For — And What Comes Next

Invest with Marcellus: https://invest.marcellus.inWhat if some of the most important technologies of the future are already living inside us?In this episode of Coffee & Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea speaks with Ria Deshpandey, co-founder and CEO of Jinsei Bio, a Pune-based biotech startup working on indigenous probiotic solutions and microbial technologies designed for Indian environments.They discuss why India still depends heavily on imported bacterial strains, the science and manufacturing challenges involved in developing indigenous probiotics, and how bacteria could transform areas ranging from human health and wellness to food technology, preservation, skincare and cleanliness.The conversation also explores India's emerging biotech ecosystem, why Ria chose to return to India after studying and working in the US, and what it will take for India to build a stronger science and R&D base.Saurabh and Ria also look at how AI is accelerating biological research, the growing possibilities of gene editing and CRISPR, and the ethical questions that come with the ability to engineer biology.---💡 Key Takeaways⮞ India’s Probiotic Gap: Why many of the bacterial strains used in India are still imported, and the opportunity to develop indigenous alternatives.⮞ The Science of Bacteria: What makes bacteria difficult to grow, combine, preserve and manufacture consistently at industrial scale.⮞ A New Biotech Opportunity: How microbial technologies could impact human health, food technology, preservation, skincare and more.⮞ Building India’s Science Ecosystem: Why India needs stronger R&D clusters, funding and opportunities for scientists to work on frontier research.⮞ AI Meets Biology: How AI can accelerate biological research by helping scientists identify which experiments are worth pursuing.⮞ CRISPR & Gene Editing: What gene-editing technologies can do, their potential applications and the ethical questions they raise.⮞ The Return of Indian Talent: Why scientists and entrepreneurs like Ria are choosing to return to India and build here.⮞ The Road Ahead: Why the convergence of biology, technology and manufacturing could create significant opportunities for India.---💼 Invest with MarcellusIf India's next wave of growth is going to be built on innovation, science and technology, investors need to understand the businesses and sectors that can compound through these structural shifts.Explore Marcellus' approach to long-term investing: https://invest.marcellus.in/---💼 About Marcellus Investment ManagersMarcellus Investment Managers is a SEBI, US SEC, and IFSCA registered portfolio manager. At Marcellus, our Purpose is to make wealth creation simple and accessible by being trustworthy and transparent capital allocators.Discover our approach to investing here: www.marcellus.in---Chapters00:00:00 Coming Up00:00:58 Meet Ria Deshpandey & Jinsei Bio00:03:16 Why India Needs Indigenous Probiotics00:07:32 The Many Applications of Bacteria00:09:00 Why Is Bacteria So Difficult to Manufacture?00:15:16 The Opportunity for Indian Biotech00:17:05 Why Ria Returned to India00:20:02 AI, CRISPR & The Future of Biology