Confluence’s first Mailbag Podcast episode of the year is a wide-ranging conversation on geopolitics and evolving market trends. Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller explore whether Latin America could emerge as a key low-cost producer in a deglobalizing world and the resulting investment opportunities. The discussion also covers current US dollar policy and the challenges of currency forecasting, signs of a meaningful market rotation following years of US large cap growth dominance, limitations of LLMs within the broader AI boom, the forces driving the surge in precious metals, and implications of Canada’s new trade deal with China.

Long-term government debt issued by advanced economies seems like a less attractive investment these days for safety conscious investors. In his latest report, Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash calls this "The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege" for these advanced economies, and Thomas joins Phil Adler to explain why this development has significant implications for investors.

After a year in office, it is becoming a little bit easier to categorize the Trump administration's foreign policy and to build an investment strategy around it. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss his latest report titled "Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies," making the case that America's foreign policy is evolving to a new kind of imperialism.

A new security strategy for the United States delivers a strong message for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to fill investors in.

The enormous investment in data centers to support AI development has carried the S&P 500 index to record highs. The index rose more than 16% last year, but this same investment surge may have created some market risks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how long this massive investment may continue and what might happen to the broader economy when it ends.

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller close out the final episode of the year by examining some key factors shaping markets heading into 2026 — from China’s growing gold purchases and efforts to build an alternative to the dollar system, to what a more dovish Fed could mean for the dollar and bonds. They discuss the risk of earnings disappointment next year, the importance of maintaining investment discipline amid market temptations, and their outlook for hard assets in a world shifting toward a multipolar global order.

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In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2026. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including stablecoins, spheres of influence, and data centers. 

Confluence's official 2026 Outlook anticipates a reacceleration of the economy next year and a low risk of recession. Three of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Advisory Director - Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and discuss how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Late arriving economic reports have delivered mixed results on the health of the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss takeaways for investors.

Social Security has been, over the years, a slowly expanding support prop for the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact of the Social Security cost of living adjustment for 2026.