Confluence Podcasts

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

History may never repeat itself exactly, but it can provide clues. And in the case we consider today, clues about how the stock market performs following off year elections, particularly when those elections result in a divided congress. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the third-year charm, why gridlock sets the stage for market growth.

Sometimes it seems as if the United States and China are heading steadily toward armed conflict. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to offer some hope for investors that this won't be the case. 

The US isn't the only market where bond yields are rising. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors should keep an eye on Europe where the euro has been under pressure. 

Investors want to know who will be the ultimate winners from the AI build out. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss lessons from the internet bubble, which might give us some clues.

Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy. 

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the tooth, share which defensive sectors look most attractive right now. Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected].

Oil has been very much in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss whether China is likely to continue this behavior and how investors might respond.

As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.

Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez, joins Phil Adler to address these questions and discuss the investment implications.