Confluence Podcasts

Bond yields are a major focus for investors these days, but yields alone only tell part of the story. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez shares what real interest rates are telling us about the current state of the economy and how they figure into investment strategy. 

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller return for another Confluence Mailbag episode to tackle listener questions on rising interest rates and the war in the Middle East. With no clear end in sight to the conflict, they examine elevated oil prices and the importance of energy diversification. They also consider how gold’s role as a portfolio hedge might be changing and, with the AI trade looking long in the tooth, share which defensive sectors look most attractive right now. Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected].

Oil has been very much in the public eye with prices rising to over $100 a barrel, and there is currently no end in sight for the Iran war. Many analysts, though, were surprised that oil did not increase even more during the first six months of the war. The main reason appears to be the way China dramatically cut its imports of oil. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss whether China is likely to continue this behavior and how investors might respond.

As of mid September, the US bond market seems to be immune to efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to bring yields down. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the current state of the bond market and how investors might respond.

Conservative investors, as a rule, construct their portfolios to, if not anticipate a recession, at least acknowledge the possibility of one. But in doing so, these investors may not fully participate in market rallies. But what if recessions are less common than they used to be? Are these conservative investors needlessly missing out? Confluence Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon Hernandez, joins Phil Adler to address these questions and discuss the investment implications. 

Investors worried about a possible AI bubble can point to a number of reasons, including rising valuations and debt. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss another concern, China's threat to the AI investment boom.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Great Britain's economic regression the past few years is notable and well documented. So is the long parade of failed prime ministers. Can the newest one make a difference in a way that will matter for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what we can expect from new the UK prime minister, Andy Burnham.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is getting a makeover, and the result may please investors who would benefit from interest rate cuts, which is probably a majority of investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to look into how this change may play out for the markets.

Taking ownership stakes in key high-tech companies is only one way the federal government is exerting its influence on the economy. A whole new economic system appears to be emerging, one that Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez calls the corporatist state. Patrick joins Phil Adler to discuss this transition and why as an investment strategist he's taking notice.