Confluence Podcasts

The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how the future of the global order is at stake and offers some guidelines for investors.

Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explore the distinctions between investing in cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes and offer considerations for investors to assess if now might be time to adjust their approach. 

Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.

In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline in publicly traded companies, and offer a quick insight on tariffs. Finally, they respond to an intriguing question on mine production and opportunities in hard assets. 
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Can we rely on government statistics to help guide our investment decisions? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss the recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that raised doubts about the economy and prompted the president to fire a top official.

The race between the United States and China for military superiority might be a lot more complicated and worrisome than the headline numbers suggest. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler with an update on US and Chinese defense spending and why it matters for investors.

Are investors right to downplay the risk of recession? It certainly looks like the markets have been acting that way this year. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler on this day in early August to discuss whether we might have less to fear than we traditionally have assumed.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

This year's turmoil in the Middle East appears to strengthen the case for investment strategies that Confluence Investment Management has maintained over recent months. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.

The US Treasury is looking for answers as it eyes higher interest rates in an environment of uncertain demand for rising US debt. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why stablecoins, a cryptocurrency, may be a partial solution.