Takeaways

• Robusta was once considered the enemy of specialty coffee.
• The stigma against Robusta was deeply emotional and personal.
• Not all Robusta is of low quality; it varies significantly.
• Robusta's global production share has increased dramatically.
• Robusta plays a crucial role in meeting coffee demand.
• Robusta was first cultivated commercially in the late 19th century.
• Robusta's reputation has improved due to quality advancements.
• The rise of instant coffee helped Robusta gain acceptance.
• Climate change poses a threat to coffee supply.
• It's time to reconsider Robusta's role in the coffee industry.

Written Blog: Life and Times of Robusta

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"All that this report does is tell them, are they long or are they short? If they're long, they are hoping or betting that the prices will go up. And if they're short, they're hoping or betting that the price will go down. And so what we do then is look at these different types of participants in the market and the report tells us if they are long or if they're short. And it tells us if that position has changed from the prior report. Because if a change, a significant change,  like either less long or less short or going from net long to net short, it would be an indication of a change in sentiment. So this segment of the market now believes that prices will go up or this segment of the market now believes that prices will go down. Does that mean they will go up or down? No. It does not. But it's important for you to know and helpful for you to know if the people who basically make their living  looking at the market and have skin in the game."

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

COT Chart for Coffee from Barchart.com

Market-Bulls.com

Tradingster.com

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Takeaways

• Coffee consumption has remained steady despite rising prices.
• Many consumers are changing their purchasing behaviors in response to costs.
• 52% of respondents will not change their coffee format even if prices rise.
• Older coffee drinkers are feeling the financial pinch more than younger ones.
• The balance of coffee consumed at home versus out of home remains constant.
• A significant percentage of consumers are switching to less expensive coffee formats.
• Financial well-being impacts coffee purchasing decisions.
• The trend of portion control is influencing coffee format choices.
• Consumer habits are evolving in response to economic conditions.

WRITTEN BLOG

This blog is based on information from the National Coffee Association (NCA) National Coffee Data Trends Fall 2025 Report. I provided here a handful of statistics, but it should be noted, I barely scratch the surface of what is available within the report. The full report provides over 100 pages of comprehensive and detailed data on a vast variety of issues important to coffee professionals. I encourage anyone with the means to purchase the full report from the NCA. 

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Takeaways

• Although it's been announced that reciprocal tariffs on coffee are no longer in effect as of Friday, November 14th at 12:01 am, punitive tariffs, like those being applied to Brazil and India, remain in place for now. 
• So, tariff on Brazilian coffee has gone from 50% to 40%. 
• Refunds from the government are unlikely.
• There are some positive signs that the punitive tariffs on Brazil might also end but nobody really knows what will happen.
• The market did not react bearishly to the rollback on coffee tariffs as some might have expected.

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Takeaways

• The Intercontinental Exchange is analogous to a bank, making money from fees, services, and interest.
• Only certain countries can tender coffee to the exchange, some at the C price ("at par"), some at a premium, and some at a discount.
• There are Exchange licensed warehouses in several U.S. cities and four cities in Europe. Some of these warehouse also come at a premium or a discount.
• Buyers do not get to choose what coffee they will receive when they buy coffee from The Exchange.
• High prices incentivize coffee being tenders to the exchange to become certified stock.

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• GROW will take place in San Cristóbal de las Chiapas in February 2026.
• GROW aims to showcase the beauty of Mexico and highlight coffee farmer in the region and tell their stories.
• Participants from all around the world will attend.
• Cultural exchange is a key theme of the event.
• San Cristóbal is known for its stunning landscapes and coffee production.
• Attendees will experience local traditions and culture in the Chiapas region
• Covoya and ofi hope to create lasting memories for participants.
• GROW reflects a global community coming together.

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Takeaways

• The lower the exchange certified stocks go, the more dangerous it is for the liquidity of the market.
• Liquidity is crucial for the stability of financial markets.
• Futures contracts require underlying assets to guarantee their value.
• A futures contract is essentially a promise to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price.
• Market participants must trust that they can execute futures contracts without issues.
• The relationship between certified stocks and market liquidity is significant.
• Understanding futures contracts is essential for navigating financial markets.
• Market liquidity impacts the overall economy and investor confidence.
• The dynamics of supply and demand play a critical role in market liquidity.
• Effective risk management strategies are necessary for dealing with futures contracts.

Ice Coffee C Daily Stocks

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Takeaways

• Consumers are buying more coffee on sale due to rising prices.
• There's a shift from whole bean to ground coffee to save costs.
• Tariffs are impacting coffee prices significantly.
• Coffee consumption remains steady despite economic pressures.
• Older consumers feel less financially secure than younger ones.
• Consumers are adapting by brewing coffee at home more often.

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Takeaways

• Volatility is a significant characteristic of the current coffee market.
• Understanding historical context is crucial for predicting future trends.
• Weather events have historically influenced coffee market fluctuations.
• Political factors can also impact coffee supply and pricing.
• Current challenges include high costs and supply chain issues.
• Consumer behavior is shifting, especially among lower-income groups.
• Retail prices are at record highs, affecting demand.
• Small roasters must focus on quality and customer relationships.
• Integrity in business practices is essential for long-term success.
• The coffee market is influenced by both natural and human factors.

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Takeaways

• EUDR stands for European Union Deforestation Regulation.
• Coffee is a significant contributor to deforestation in the EU.
• Compliance with EUDR requires extensive documentation and traceability.
• Larger companies are generally more prepared for EUDR compliance.
• Small producers face greater challenges in meeting compliance requirements.
• The penalties for non-compliance can be severe for companies.
• Market dynamics will shift as companies adapt to EUDR regulations.
• EUDR could disrupt traditional coffee supply chains globally.
• Technology plays a crucial role in ensuring compliance with EUDR.

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