The KE Report

Craig Hemke - Geopolitics Driving Markets: Oil Price Volatility, Safe Haven Sentiment, and a Precious Metals Summer Rally?


Listen Later

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we’re joined by Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, for a timely and wide-ranging discussion on the intersection of geopolitics, precious metals, the US dollar, and mining equities.

 

We kick things off with the surprising market reaction to US missile strikes in Iran - including the sharp reversal in oil prices and the perception that escalation may be de-escalating. Craig explains why weekend geopolitical events often produce less market volatility by the time trading resumes, and how this specific event might mirror the short-lived Israel-Iran tensions from late 2024.

 

We then shift focus to the precious metals markets, where:

  • The US Dollar Index hovering at 98 is acting as a pivotal level. A breakdown toward 96 could serve as a tailwind for both gold and silver, with gold already consolidating around $3,400.

  • Craig sees signs of a summer rally for precious metals, especially if the dollar weakens further.

  • Silver backwardation and contract rollovers are creating short-term volatility, particularly with July contracts nearing expiration.

  • A strong monthly and quarterly close for silver could set the stage for a technical breakout.

  • On the mining equities side:

    • Craig notes Newmont (NEM) is up ~50% YTD but still lagging more efficient operators.

    • He expects a positive Q2 earnings season for miners, driven by significantly higher average gold and silver prices.

    • However, not all equities will benefit equally. Craig emphasizes focusing on companies with low all-in sustaining costs, wide margins, and disciplined cost controls.

    • He also sees last week’s weakness in GDX as potentially related to NYSE options expiration and short-term oil price fears—not a broader trend reversal.

    • We also preview Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and the mixed signals from the FOMC dot plot, as well as the uncertainty created by potential tariff reinstatements under Trump.


      Follow Craig’s work at TFMetalsReport.com

      ...more
      View all episodesView all episodes
      Download on the App Store

      The KE ReportBy KE Report

      • 4.3
      • 4.3
      • 4.3
      • 4.3
      • 4.3

      4.3

      11 ratings


      More shows like The KE Report

      View all
      Financial Sense(R) Newshour by Jim Puplava

      Financial Sense(R) Newshour

      376 Listeners

      The Peter Schiff Show Podcast by Peter Schiff

      The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

      5,675 Listeners

      Sprott Money News by Sprott Money

      Sprott Money News

      144 Listeners

      Macro Voices by Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

      Macro Voices

      3,063 Listeners

      Quoth the Raven by Quoth the Raven

      Quoth the Raven

      933 Listeners

      Mining Stock Daily by Trevor Hall

      Mining Stock Daily

      95 Listeners

      Palisades Gold Radio by Collin Kettell

      Palisades Gold Radio

      252 Listeners

      Value Hive Podcast by Brandon Beylo

      Value Hive Podcast

      91 Listeners

      The Grant Williams Podcast by Grant Williams

      The Grant Williams Podcast

      1,352 Listeners

      Doug Casey's Take by Matthew Smith

      Doug Casey's Take

      127 Listeners

      Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient by Wealthion

      Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient

      383 Listeners

      The Julia La Roche Show by Julia La Roche

      The Julia La Roche Show

      55 Listeners

      Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart by Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money

      Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

      379 Listeners

      The David Lin Report by The David Lin Report

      The David Lin Report

      34 Listeners

      Monetary Matters with Jack Farley by Jack Farley

      Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

      91 Listeners